Good Tuesday everyone and thanks for checking in on us. Today is likely to be an active weather day across the state with the potential for strong and severe storms. I have your regular tracking toys and also some words on the increasing wintry threat for late weekend into early next week.
Low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley today. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will be common ahead of a strong cold front sweeping in. Instability is rather meager today, but the forcing along the front should make up for it. Throw in some low level shear and you can get severe storms to crank up. Damaging wind is the main threat with an isolated tornado or two possible. There is just enough shear to support the possibility of a November twister if things get cranking.
Here are your storm tracking tools…
Today’s Severe Weather Threat
Current Watches
The rain will pull away from west to east on Wednesday as cooler air moves in. Thanksgiving Day and Black Friday continue to look GREAT!
The pattern is about to turn wintry for our region as we dive into winter. The models are all coming around to a monster cutoff low pressure across the Ohio Valley from late this weekend into early next week and use that as a catalyst for a pattern change.
Your model rundown…
GFS
European Model
Canadian Model
Nogaps
That would make for some interesting weather around here. Each of those models show a rain to snow scenario playing out from Sunday into Monday with some lingering snows possible into Tuesday. Some of those runs show accumulating snows here and the possibility of something big somewhere across the Ohio Valley. Are they correct? We will have to wait and see, but you will rarely find that much agreement in the models from this far out.
Fun times ahead.
I will have updates on today’s severe weather threat as needed. Don’t forget to give me a follow on twitter for some rapid fire updates.
Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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By the way, you used the “t” word in your first paragraph….threat LOL!! Those are mighty powerful words around here!
Flashback to last winter! Let’s review the misbehavior of the models the last couple of years:
6 days out: Models all agree on something drastic here.
4 days out: Half the models hang tough, the rest call for a meteor shower.
2 days out: All the models call for a meteor shower.
1 day out: Models return to agreement on big snow.
Day of: Models call for rain. There is a meteor shower.
Funniest and most accurate comment ever.
wow the nogaps trough looks incredible, kinda hope it pans out for folks atleast for enough snow to put us in the holiday spirit.
a common trend last winter esp of the gfs was to show a storm about 6 days out fairly accurately then the model seemed to get rabies or something and then within a day or two it would come back to its original idea which was pretty accurate.
All the more reason to let Chris sort out the silliness of the models before going out and buying parkas for the cows.
well this epsiode fixzzling out the front weak no sun out, just light rain as it passes. which i cand handle. i p[redict 3-4 inch snow foir KY coming up in my 10 day altert windown from TURKEYEYYY DAYY.
NWS JACKSON LONG RANGE FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS AND SOUNDS AS CHRIS HAS POINTED OUT INTERESTING!!!!!!
THE CHANCE
FOR PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM SAT AND INTO SUN. WITH INSTABILITY
PRESENT IN A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW…THREW IN THUNDER FOR SUNDAY. A
STRONG GRADIENT WILL BE WITH THE FRONT AND WITH A GOOD PUSH OF COLD
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT…THE THREAT OF SNOWFALL MIXING WITH RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IN A UPSLOPE FLOW THAT THERE COULD
BE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY. THE SNOW
THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE AND CONCERN FOR NOW.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE SEEMS DECENT WITH THE EXTENDED
All the more reason to stop getting excited about what might happen two weeks from present. Snow is much harder to predict than t-storms. And all of the models struggle in Winter
chria when do we get your winter forecast?
Yeah, Chris, didn’t you say you would put the winter outlook out some time in November? Did I miss it?
If memory serves me correctly, he usually reveals it shortly after Thanksgiving.
your memory serves you correctly!..lol..:)
he usually puts it out the week of or after Thanksgiving…
By far, the best comment this year.
rifgt now by monday nite i se 2 inches of snow posible in lower elevation SE E KY with higher mounts in the higher elbvation BLACK MOUNTAIN ETC. look more and more likly we are going see our first snow.
Someone say snow?? 🙂 ♥
http://www.twisterdata.com is painting some minor snow accumulations across most of Kentucky through the middle of next week! By minor, I mean mainly 0.5″-2″ (of course, higher in the SE mountains)…
Want snow? Here is a couple of webcams of Paradise, near Mt Rainier in Washington state.
http://www.nps.gov/mora/photosmultimedia/visitorcenter-webcam.htm
As you can tell, other webcams are available…
For many of you snow enthusiasts, including yours truly, Paradise, especially at the Ranger Station, records some of the highest annual snow amounts in the country.
Last year, they recorded 921″ (Jul 1 2010 – Jun 30 2011).
They’re a little bit behind this year in snow totals, but are expecting at least 2-4 feet this week.
921′ is pretty good. Parts of the Sierra in Cali received over 950′. With it still projected to be a La-Nina (cooler Eastern Pacific), with the western mountains get 900″+ easy.
BTW, here is another website dedicated to webcams in the Western Mountains: http://www.sierravisionsstock.com/sierravisions/sierra-nevada-webcams/
So this monday night.
I guess it’s finally time to start watching the maps. Lol. I enjoyed the 8 month hiatus. But the thought of snow is magnificent lol.