Good Monday everyone. The weather for much of this week is going to be anything but what we would expect for the middle of May. Off and on rains… windy conditions and temps WELL BELOW normal will make for some ugly weather for the next several days. Is this a sign of what’s ahead for the Summer? Some comments on that in a bit.
In the short term… what you see is pretty much what you get for our Monday. Scattered showers will continue to be around as an upper level low spins on top of us. Follow the showers here…
Temps today will range from near 50 in the central and east to around 60 in the far west…
Low pressure will develop across the Carolinas later today and will slowly lift northward over the next several days. Make no mistake about it… this is a winter time setup here in the middle of spring. We are on the backside of this low and rain will increase for Tuesday into Wednesday with the greatest concentration being across the east.
Highs the next few days will range from chilly for areas in the rain to cool for those with mainly dry conditions.
We are going to warm things up by Friday into the coming weekend as we go into a more typical May pattern that should also feature more thunderstorms and a good chance for another active severe weather period.
Summer is just around the corner as June 1st gets thing started off in the weather community. I have made no bones about it over the past few months that I think this Summer will have normal to below normal temps and normal to above normal rains.
Several of the seasonal forecast models seem to agree with my line of thinking. Take a look at a couple of different forecasts…
CFS Model
Soil Moisture Model
I will have a summer forecast later this week or next. Not that there is anything left for the imagination. 
Have a great Monday and take care.
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Will all this moisture early create a more humid than normal summer? I guess my questions is…although you think temps may be lower…will humidity level make them feel like normal, or even higher than normal?
I’m still not on board with the models. I remember them saying we were going to have a warm, wet winter? A couple hot, sunny weeks and that soil moisture will be a thing of the past. Remember last year, the bluegrass went from lust to brown in another 3 weeks. Not saying it will happen but just got a feeling northern Indiana and Ohio get all the rain.
Officially, we still haven’t hit 90 here. So there is still a chance we could see another 2004 all over again… zero 90 degree days the entire year at Lexington. Wouldn’t that be awesome!
Thanks, Chris. One question…if we are looking at possible below normal to normal temps, will this have any effect on the hurricane season that starts June 1? Just curious…have a great Monday, everyone.
Coming from someone who previously lived 20 years in Texas…..
YESSSSSSSSSSS!!!!
The sun is peekin’ out in E-Town!!!
Spring of 04 and 09 were nothing like this spring. Both were around average and the state was nickled and dimed to death. This spring has been blockbuster rain events and totals that are over a foot above avg in places. Definitely can not predict this summer using those years.
Okay by me!!!!
I can live with no 90’s as long as the sun is out and it feels warm outside.