Good Friday and welcome to Kentucky Derby Weekend. This is a special time of year in the bluegrass state and the weather forecast takes on an added importance. Throw Mother’s Day into the weekend mix and it just ups the pressure to deliver a good forecast.

The action gets started today with the Kentucky Oaks. I have spent many Oaks days doing live weather trackside at Churchill Downs and have been in rain and shine. Today may feature a bit of both. Here is a quick look at the forecast for the 137th running of the Oaks and Derby…



We have a weak system pushing across the region today and this will have a couple of showers and maybe a thunderstorm with it. It will not be an all day rain… but some showers will be possible at any time with the best threat into the early afternoon hours. Highs will be running into the low and mid 60s again.

Kentucky Derby Saturday should start dry with partly sunny skies a good bet. Another quick moving system rolls into town from the northwest during the afternoon and evening. This should bring scattered showers and storms with the chance these are near Churchill Downs leading up to or during the run for the roses. High temps will be in the low 70s.

You can track today’s showers here…





Mother’s Day will likely start out with the scattered showers and storms with a drying trend setting in during the day. Winds will be rather gusty as temps hit the 70s.

This warming trend will really kick in next week with a 3 or 4 day run of 80 or better a good possibility. You can see this warm spell nicely here on the European Model…



The core of the warmth will be setting up across the plains states. That pattern can sometimes lead to some “ring of fire” thunderstorms working around the edge of the warmth. We will need to watch to see if any of those can impact our weather… especially Monday and Tuesday.

Beyond that… the threat for more big storms may move in when as the warm spell gets wiped out by some much cooler air. Either way… I am just glad to see some warm air FINALLY taking aim at our region.

Have a great Friday and I will update as needed. Take care.