Fall Is Ready To Take Control

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s full steam ahead toward a major flip in our weather patter as fall FINALLY takes control of the weather. This transition comes with a very active pattern featuring a major fall cold front and two hurricanes… Michael in the Gulf and Sergio in the Pacific. Wait… What? Yep… A Pacific hurricane may bring rain to Kentucky.

Let’s begin with Hurricane Michael down in the Gulf. This storm has a Wednesday date with the Florida landfall and will likely be a major hurricane as it comes ashore. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…

cone graphic

As our cold front rolls in late Wednesday, it’s able to tap some of the offshoot moisture from Michael, enhancing the rain in our region. Later Wednesday night and Thursday morning, southeastern Kentucky may get in on some of the true outer rains from what’s left of Michael…

Locally heavy rains are a good bet across central and eastern Kentucky. Chilly air crashes in from west to east on Thursday with the chill really settling in for Friday. Highs may stay in the 50s for many with the potential for a kiss of frost by  Friday or Saturday morning. Lows may reach deep into the 30s…

Saturday is another chilly day with clouds increasing as a weak system rolls by just to our north. That brings us to another very interesting system.

What’s left of Hurricane Sergio out in the Pacific will cross Mexico and into the southwestern US in the next few days. That system may then wind up crossing the Ohio Valley this weekend. The hurricane models are incredible to see…

I’m not really sure the last time I saw Hurricane Models plot the remnants of a Pacific Hurricane all the way into our region.

What’s left of Sergio looks to bring rain our way by Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a VERY cold air mas…

Additional cold shots are likely to follow that and now we have our first medium range model run showing this in two weeks…

The 15 day snow map from the European Ensembles Control run is interesting to look at…

Yes we are just looking at those for fun, but it’s pretty wild to see this showing up so early in the season and an indication of an amazing pattern flip taking place.

I will have another update later today, so check back. Until then, I leave you with your daily dose of scattered storm tracking tools…

Have a great day and take care.


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12 Responses to Fall Is Ready To Take Control

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I love the change in seasons!

  2. Terry says:

    The front and the hurricane just don’t appear to want to make the KY connection as even the GFS and Canadian are slowly going towards the more east track that the EURO was showing the entire time. I still think it is moving pretty fast and May bring more rain than currently showing to SE KY.

  3. Schroeder says:

    Looks like Hurricane Michael is moving at the present a little farther west as Chris indicated on Saturday’s blog. My thinking now that the central and eastern Kentucky may pick up some decent rains from the remnants of Hurricane Michael, but that depends on the cold front to our west and the timing. Tropical Storm Sergio on that model seems to be riding the subtropical jet stream into the Ohio Valley. Too early to forecast this one. After studying the upper level winds over Canada and the US I’m not sold on a Fall weather pattern change just yet.

    • Bryant says:

      If you have to time to study the upper wind patterns of North America, surely you have time to study how to create your own weather blog.

      Of course that defeats the real reason you’re here-to troll Chris on every post.

    • Jeff Kidd says:

      Schroeder why don’t you message Chris and give him your forecast since you disagree with him so much? You say you come here to learn, but all you do is disagree with Chris daily.

      • Bryant says:

        It’s a ritual these days. Show up to work, coffee in hand, click on Chris’ website and read Schroeder’s counterpoints.

        I’m just waiting for his posts where he complains about being picked on and will leave the site for good.

    • Linus says:

      I have to disagree. After looking at the tropical winds across northern Australia and water vapor movement through Europe, this will be a pattern change to fall.

  4. Matt says:

    Ah, the ole two week snow map..

  5. BubbaG says:

    Whatever the case, hoping the main action is to our east. Heavy rain and wind could be a tree issue, due to our still soggy ground layer.

  6. Schroeder says:

    Actually we could use a good rain in my county. So far this month we have had 0.16 inches. The trees are showing signs of chlorophyll reduction due to the longer nights. No way of knowing how much sugar has been stored in the foliage. I would guess that it is fairly low, but we will have color, it just won’t be as bright. Hurricane Michael is almost a category three and still on it’s northerly track towards the Alabama coast line. This storm reminds me of Hurricane Camille back in August 1969 which grew to a category five at landfall on the Mississippi coast.

    • Bryant says:

      I’m sure the leaves won’t be as colorful as the foliage from the 1960’s when heat waves never occurred in the Fall and the landscape resembled a Norman Rockwell painting.
      #sarcasm

  7. Prelude says:

    Interesting to see that Mike Seidel from TWC is not covering Hurricane Michael. My guess is that stunt he pulled overhyping Hurricane Florence on a live shot got him some your sitting this one out from management from TWC. Mike Seidel is pretty much a given on Hurricane and winter storm live coverage for years with TWC.

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