Good Friday everyone. We are just about ready to wrap up one of the all time wettest months for many cities across the state. Our April has been dominated by heavy rains and severe weather. We will take a small look back and  peak into early May to see if the same pattern continues.

The rainfall over the past week has been nothing short of amazing for the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Take a look at the rain amounts from the past 7 days…



That shows some parts of western Kentucky getting more than a foot of rain. This continues to cause major flooding problems in some areas.

This was already a very wet start to 2011 for the state and the past week has pushed us into the crazy above normal category for rainfall. Take a look at how much above normal we are since January 1st…



You think that wet ground won’t have something to say about our summer temps? You can bank on it having a big impact in helping keep thermometers tempered.

Where do we go from here?

Our weekend will start out calm enough with increasing amounts of sunshine today and temps back into the 60s. Saturday looks very good with the 70s returning as southwesterly winds kick in.

Sunday will bring us to the start of May and we would love to change the whole pattern around. I just don’t see that happening as of now. I stated a few days ago this may should be normal to below normal in temps and see a continuation of the active severe weather pattern. The severe pattern should especially be true for the middle and end of the month.

Unfortunately… the rainy part of the pattern may not take that much of a break. We will get a cold front to move our way on Sunday with some showers and storms. Some storms could be strong… but this doesn’t look like a widespread event at this point.

More importantly… this front may put the brakes on right on top of us allowing a slow moving low pressure to work from southwest to northeast through the Tennessee Valley then up the east coast. If that does happen… it could bring another shot of heavy rains to our part of the world. Some of the latest model runs have been hinting at this and this run of the GFS looks ugly…



Let’s hope this system just keeps on trucking through the region instead of hanging up. The seasonal trend argues for a slower mover.

The temps next week will be below normal and you can see that well here…



That cooler than normal pattern will be shoved around later by the middle of the month as the warm air fights back and that’s when I expect another hyper active severe weather period. Remember our motto of this spring… when it warms it storms!

Have a great Friday and take care.