10:30am Update
Good morning everyone. Our line of storms moving into eastern Ky is weakening out some. We will still have to watch for some severe weather with this line over the nex few hours… but it is not as strong as it was earlier.
The next round of strong and severe storms will develop this afternoon across western Ky and Tn and roll east-northeast across the state.
As always… we will keep you updated. Take care.
9:14am Update
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
CENTRAL GARRARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN JESSAMINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHERN MADISON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 945 AM EDT…
8:57am Update
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
PULASKI COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 945 AM EDT
8:54pm Update
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHWESTERN BOURBON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
HARRISON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GEORGETOWN…
NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 915 AM EDT…
8:50am Update
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
CENTRAL GARRARD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHERN CASEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 915 AM EDT…
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2PM FOR EASTERN KY…
8:40am Update
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
EASTERN ADAIR COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN CASEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHEASTERN RUSSELL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 915 AM EDT/815 AM CDT/…
8:35am Update
TORNADO WARNING FOR…
BOONE COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
CAMPBELL COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
KENTON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
NORTHWESTERN PENDLETON COUNTY IN NORTHERN KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 900 AM EDT.
TORNADO WARNING FOR…
WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 900 AM EDT
8:30am Update
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
EASTERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
WESTERN BOYLE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
WESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHWESTERN JESSAMINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
MERCER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
WOODFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
* UNTIL 900 AM EDT…
* AT 822 AM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRUMFIELD…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
* THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT…
VETERANS PARK…
FAYETTE MALL…
DUNBAR HIGH SCHOOL…
VERSAILLES…
HARRODSBURG…
RIVERVIEW ESTATES AND NEVADA…
STRINGTOWN AND JACKSON…
NONESUCH AND BRAXTON…
MORTONSVILLE AND TROY…
Good morning everyone. A TORNADO WATCH is now out for much of central Kentucky until 11am. Here is a look at the watch outline and current warnings…
Track the storms on radar…
Watchs will likely be requred for much of the region throughout the day. I will have updates as needed and via twitter. Take care.
Anyone with good area’s to stage today for storm spotting feel free to assist me. Thanks
Love your dedication keep up the good work
ha figures the SPC would see to downplay virtually any risk at all for bad storms in KY. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html FTW!! NOT
Just drove from Louisville to E-town. In almost 12 years of making this trip today was the worst drive even. Monsoon like rains, wind, horrid ponding on I-65. Horrible.
Based upon IR satellite channel loop, the latest NWS discussion, and the other parameters that are all coming together…don’t be surprised at all if SPC moves the Moderate Risk west and north in the 9:30 update. Loserville and Lexington are NOT out of the woods yet…and eastern KY is probably going to get hammered tonight.
Is there any way to disable the weather radio alarm from going off when a WATCH is issued. I’m getting real tired of being waken in the middle of the night because a watch was issued for the next 6 hours and the closest storm is hundreds of miles away. I still want to be awaken when there is a WARNING, but not for a watch.
Sirens going off in Franklin County…think it’s for the county and not city.
Several places saying our severe threat in EKY has reduced considerably and that there isn’t enough instability to deliver on previously anticipated severe weather outbreak…..is this the case?
Second round will carry the biggest punch.
depends on if there is any clearing or not i think
Dara, I would not let my guard down, unless you see Chris say something about it. That is not what I was hearing this morning. IN fact, KYT said that we would see this in three rounds, this morning, another this afternoon, and the third one in the evening as the low actually comes through. this will be intensified if the sun comes out at all between rounds. Don’t relax just yet.
Frankfort: torrential rain.
WXman where are you at? What are your thoughts on today?
Tornado sirens going off in Nichvegas!
I won’t and I personally thought it was a little irresponsible to give information that would result in the public letting down their guard when this thing is just getting started. Thanks for the response 🙂
Those storms in Ark blew up this morning before the way before sunrise. Obviously the sun had nothing to do with that. The sun wasn’t even out as those storms blew up in ark this morning
Yeah. What gives?
No, there’s enough instability, sheer, and disturbance to make it happen anyway. Look back at Arkansas and the Memphis area, blowing up already.
Ring Road side of Freeman Lake in E-Town has flodded over the walkways & sidewalk over the lake. Really creepy driving by it. A few houses in SOuth E-Town that are in a bit of a gulley are starting to flood.
And I now have a ‘creek’ in my back field.
Downed trees in South Lincoln. No warnings here yet…????
Sun is peeking through in Johnson County…..instability increasing I assume….
Tornado sirens going off in Woodford county
Tornado warning now….but no sirens are going off in South Lincoln. ????????
True so I’m guessing we are looking at being under the gun later.
Getting windy in Whitley Co. Trying to sprinkle.
Very weak shower just moved through northwest Lex. No thunder or lightning at all.
Mark, are you talkin Masterston Station area?
Really seems like things spun themselves out a bit here in lex, very uneventful rainstorm moving through. Thankfully 🙂
Latest SPC outlook keeps EKY in the MODERATE RISK. Instability issues mentioned, but apparently it wasn’t enough to bump us down to a slight risk.
Yes I am. I’m quite shocked that this was a tornado warned storm. I know it’s better to be safe than sorry ….I mean, this was nothing compared to other storms I’ve seen in the past. Even non-warned storms.
Let’s hope the sun doesn’t come out today.
With he timing of this first round. I think it clear later this morning and make this afternoon really dangerous.
I’m still trying to figure out why SPC isn’t concerned about central KY.
Here comes the rain…just started to thunder a bit. Clouds are flying by
If the radar holds true looks like we get the sunshine to destabilize everything for this afternoon.
What’s your thoughts on this afternoon?
just saw this meso discussion
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0617.html
Does anyone know what time the next round should start in Corbin and Mercer counties? I am in corbin and my family is in Mercer?
Sun shining strong here in Paintsville.
Wow, after all the severe outbreak talk I really am suprised that we aren’t seeing more in the way of severe weather. Wondering if this outbreak is over-hyped or just early in the game.
Hey WXman, I found your post where you said you thought it would not be severe this spring for our area. I remembered it well because I posted earlier that day that it should be an active spring.
That’s nice.
Check this out from a month ago:
http://www.theandersonnews.com/content/very-active-severe-storm-season-could-be-shaping
Been spot-on so far, for better or worse.
The activity in western TN right now will be the main event I think. My gut feeling is that SPC’s outlook is in pretty good shape…eastern KY will get hammered later today. Central KY may avoid the worst of it. Nobody is in the all clear, but I think TN and eastern KY are going to see the worst of the activity. Not enough time to destabilize here because of cloudcover.
thankyou for updating….
Dara we are still early in the game. The main piece of energy with this storm system is still back to our southwest.
I posted “Thursday, February 10, 2011 6:10 AM RS Louisville wrote:
We’re in a La Nina period that could last through spring. La Nina typically bring a greater severe weather threat to the mid west, us. Article written (link below)in 2008 which applies this year 2011.
http://indianaweatheronline.com/blog3/2008/02/what_la_nina_means_for_the_sev.html
Reply to this ”
WXman posted
El Nino also has brought some of our worst severe thunderstorm Spring seasons. 1998 is a prime example. So I expect that La Nina may influence the opposite, and keep a lot of the severe weather focused elsewhere in the country. This Spring shouldn’t be one of our more active severe storm seasons.
Reply to this”
Good to know….the storms to the southwest of us look very intense and we are seeing sunshine in Paintsville that will probably fuel these storms.
O H M Y S T A R S!
The sun is out in Lex!
I’m not trying to pull down your pants. Weather men a wrong sometimes and still get paid. So, when you post that you nail the weather all the time. Someone may catch you with your pants down.
This is where you slip up. I never post that I “nail the weather all the time”. When I get it right, I’m right…but I don’t go around bragging like it’s a contest. I’m done with this conversation. There are more serious things to worry about today.
Is “filtered” sunshine enough to cause instability or do we need full out blasting sunshine?
Wxman posted 02/05/11 “Your score keeping pad is screwed up, because I’ve been nailing each and every storm from days out, and this year I have a blog to prove it. Sorry, try again.”
any sunshine is enough
Sun really shining in Gtown.
I’ll have to say I always pay close attention to WXman’s comments. We live close to the same area and most of the time he nails it for us. Nobody can predict the weather perfect all the time, but I do appreciate WXman’s input.
I don’t see how we are going to get bad storms. If the line moving through is it for the day, all the bad storms are in TN.
I have noticed that there was a tornado warning for “eastern ky” What is Pike County considered and are the severe storms going to take aim at us, or stay to our west? We were not included in that tornado watch earlier.
I appreciate WXman’s input also, along with everyone else on here.
SPC’s Moderate Risk is moved back to include most of central Kentucky now, with a hatched area included that indicates violent and/or long-track tornadoes are possible in the LEX area.
I agree and singling one person out about some random weather opinion isn’t necessarily showing that you value their opinion. Even the best Mets can’t always be right….for the most part, its science with intuition and history to back it up. I truly value every single opinion on here so WXman don’t sweat the small stuff 🙂
Just saw that WXman, not good.
The point being made is about not being right or wrong here but at times, his post have a bit of arragence thrown in. If you choose to have selective reading thats fine.
Arrogance,
RS Louisville, I am on here all the time and never post. While I also appreciate WXman’s input, I would agree that WXman is a bit arrogant at times.
Just to be clear…the Storm Prediction Center and NWS defines a “Violent” tornado as EF-4 or EF-5 intensity. Your opinion may differ.
Is the precip nearing I-75 the last of the storms for today??
SPC:
FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN IN WCNTRL KY…THE ONGOING MCS
IS HAMPERING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER…AS THE MID-LEVEL JET NOSES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST…THE MODERATE INSTABILITY IN NRN LA
AND SRN AR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT QUICKLY NNEWD ACROSS WCNTRL TN AND
WCNTRL KY BETWEEN THE EXITING MCS AND A CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NW AR
AND SRN MO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MOIST AXIS TO BE LOCATED FROM WEST
OF NASHVILLE NEWD TO NEAR LOUISVILLE WHERE NUMEROUS SFC-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL JET AND MID-LEVEL JET ARE FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED ACROSS
THIS CORRIDOR SUGGESTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES EVEN IF DESTABILIZATION IS NOT AS GREAT AS
IS EXPECTED. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A BROKEN LINE OF TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK
AREA AND TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL KY AND MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES
AND A FEW LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.
Nope, the moderate severe threat is really just getting started unfortunately. This showers should clear quickly to the east before giving way to the isolated cells that are beginning to fire in Western KY and TN. Those areas, I believe, are the areas to watch at the moment.
Gee. Such good news.
Looking forward to it.
Really.
😉
*sigh*
“Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 – EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.” – from the SPC.
As far as I’m concerned, anything EF-2 or higher is significant enough to be labeled violent, destructive, catastrophic, etc…
I think we need to stop thinking in terms of ‘literal’ and think about the scope of the potential for ‘bad weather’. How’s that?
I’m just an avid reader of the blog and interested person in weather, but it looks to me that we will mostly get flooding rains in eastern ky. I don’t know. Help me out please
Following this blog since about 6 months after it was started by Chris at WKYT. Let me tell you two things about WXman I’ve observed in that expanse of time:
1) He brings a metric !@$% ton of intelligent devil’s advocacy to this blog and that is very valuable to anyone who comes here.
2) Like many people who are highly intelligent about a given subject, he takes being wrong very seriously and is often defensive as a result when he is wrong.
While, I still find his earnest desire for severe weather to hit our state (and specifically his city) so he may “enjoy” it to be incredibly ghoulish, all of the readers of this blog are better off for his continuing contributions.
OK, I would agree he is valuable. But one can be valuable and arrogant. Kobe Bryant is valuable to the Lakers, yet he is very arrogant. I’m just not a fan of arrogance.
Oh, I also agree with you about his enjoyment of severe weather. It is a bit over the top considering severe weather puts others in danger.
Really we are still on this nonsense kick of bashing people who like severe weather? Its gonna happen whether people like it to happen or not. Its no different than those people who love snowstorms and blizzards. They can be destructive and just as deadly. So get off your high horse and let it go.
OK, I’ll give you the snowstorms argument. However, the origin of this was that WXman was a bit arrogant. I simply replied that I agreed with that fact. I think that much is true. He can provide his valuable insight without the arrogance.
I love and live for severe weather! Today is incredible! I’ve given one example of many times where he just thinks he is a weather god. Many times he tell people to look back at his post to see how accurate he is. I did and he is wrong like we all are but we admit it. He is not the weather god… I’m done with this today but my thoughts are with the people getting hammered.