10:35pm Update THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR… * UNTIL 1100 PM EDT… * AT 1030 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A * THIS TORNADIC STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR… * UNTIL 945 PM EDT… * AT 905 PM EDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS NEAR GLENDALE AND NEAR INTERSTATE 65. THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT… 8:48pm Update * TORNADO WARNING FOR… * UNTIL 915 PM EDT… * AT 840 PM EDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FUNNEL CLOUDS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS NEAR BIG CLIFTY. THIS VERY DANGEROUS STORM IS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH AND WILL ALSO PRODUCE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL. * THE TORNADO WILL ALSO IMPACT…
SOUTHWESTERN ANDERSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHEASTERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SOUTHEASTERN SPENCER COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MAUD…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
CHAPLIN…
SPARROW AND VAN BUREN…
KLONDYKE AND JOHNSONVILLE…
9:19pm Update
EASTERN HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHERN LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
WESTERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
ELIZABETHTOWN…
ROANOKE…
LYONS AND NEW HAVEN…
BLUE GAP…
CULVERTOWN AND GETHSEMANE…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A
CENTRAL HARDIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
NORTHWESTERN LARUE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
WESTERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY…
HODGENVILLE…
ELIZABETHTOWN…
GAITHERS…
TONIEVILLE AND MATHERS MILL…
ROANOKE AND BOUNDARY OAK…
8:15pm Update
TORNADO on the ground in Grayson county will move across extreme southeastern Breckinridge county into Hardin county. SEEK SHELTER NOW!!!
5:55pm Update
A new TORNADO WATCH has been issued for parts of northwestern Ky until 11pm. This includes the Louisville metro. Here is a look at the watch outline and current warnings…
Dangerous supercell thunderstorms are moving northeastward out of western Kentucky. These storms are showing major rotation and funnel clouds have been reported. I will have updates as needed and rapid fire updates and warnings via twitter.
Take care.
4:10pm Update
A TORNADO WATCH is now out for western Kentucky until 10pm CDT. This is a PDS Watch… A Particularly Dangerous Situation. Here is a map of the counties in the watch and the latest warnings…
I will have more updates as needed and will be sending out warnings and quick thoughts via twitter. Take care.
Previous Update
Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. We are entering into a dangerous weather pattern that is likely to bring a major severe storms outbreak and several inches of rain. This will spell big trouble to much of the state through Wednesday night.
Let’s talk about the flood threat first. Rounds of torrential rain producing thunderstorms will begin to fire back up later today and kick into high gear tonight and Wednesday. These storms will have the greatest impact in central and western Kentucky and this is the area with the highest flooding threat. Flooding has been ongoing in many towns and communities for several days now and ANY additional rain could have catastrophic results. That is especially the case when you see my new rainfall outlook…
If you live in a flood prone area of central and western Kentucky and you aren’t experiencing flooding yet… it might be good to go ahead and have a plan of action. Farther east… the rains won’t be as heavy but could still cause some local high water problems.
Now to the severe weather aspect of this bad boy.
A major outbreak of severe storms is LIKELY tonight into Wednesday across most of the state. Tornadoes, damaging winds and hail will all be possible. The action will be moving in from the southwest and should come in waves through Wednesday evening.
Here are the latest severe weather outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center…
Today
Wednesday
Current Watches
Possible Watch Areas
Radars to track the storms…
I will have updates as needed so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
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When can we expect the severe weather to get started?
Sheesh! I am ready for a break from severe weather, especially in the middle of the night! Been raining here for about the past three hours, Chris. Goes from moderate to bursts of very heavy, and then back to moderate. I can’t imagine how the poor folks in western and NC KY are feeling. We are waterlogged, and we have been the lucky ones as far as rain goes this past few days. Do we have any kind of a time frame for the beginning of this bad boy, Chris? And for, hopefully, a quick passage?
Nervous as a cat about late tonight into Wednesday. Don’t like the sound of the forecasts, everyone be safe.
The latest SPC outlook for tomorrow is worrysome. High Risk is a possibility for KY in later outlooks. LMK hasn’t been harping on this much yet…
lmk acting like its just like any other severe event for ky while SPC is mentioning high risk with the largest mod risk/hatch marks ive ever seen!? i dont get it!? I wish MJ would chime in on why the descrepencies 18 hrs out
Downright scary. Central KY is dead center of the current moderate risk, so if they go to a high risk, i think we know where that will be.
Does the SPC outlook show eastern KY to not have much trouble with flooding?
I’ve noticed the same and I’ve seen severe probabilities even lower with more emphasis placed on weather events….will this be mainly Central Ky or will other areas have this same potential because to listen to them, its seasonal storms only for EKY.
I concur- very puzzling especially since we are getting closer to the potential events.
Forbes, at 1:45 PM has given EAST KY a 7/10 on his personal TORCON TORNADO PROBABILITY SCALE…for Wednesday. It’s the second highest rating on his list.
My thoughts exactly.
Even though it’s TWC, I still respect Dr. Forbes because the guy worked directly with Dr. Fujita when the F-scale for tornadoes was developed. Forbes knows his stuff.
At work so far today, I’ve already gotten an email about a bridge that has collapsed rendering a county road impassable, and a section of highway near the state capitol that is potentially going to slide soon. All the rainwater is starting to cause major infastructure damage in KY and we aren’t done yet. This is going to be a costly month weatherwise.
Thanks, Chris. Just wanting it to clear up for a few days so people can get the chance to dry out a little bit.
Not loking forward to the severe stuff, but I know you will be tweeting updates.
Appreciated…..very much!
Nervous as a cat about late tonight into Wednesday. Don’t like the sound of the forecasts, everyone be safe.
Wxman, how often does the SPC update? The latest one I saw had most of KY in a moderate risk for tomorrow….not sure when I saw it, but I know it was earlier today.
Chris seems to be the only one who is really putting out the potential of danger with this system. The only other person I have seen who is is TG at Chris’ former station, WKYT. both of them have been repeatedly stating that this is a real dangerous situation, for everyone.
Thanks for the update Chris!
Roughly every six hours for the Day 1 outlook. The Day two outlook is more like every 12 hours. The Day 2 outlook that’s posted now is only 2 hours old. The next one issued tomorrow morning could possibly upgrade us to High Risk.
Basically it’s CB, Belski and the guys over at WAVE3 in Louisville. The other tv mets don’t even hold a candle
I thought Belski had retired. Is he still online?
Doesn’t it seem as though whenever the NWS doesnt talk about something or kinda downplays it, something bad ALWAYS happens? Kinda worried.
Wxman, is the section of highway near the state capitol U.S. 60? In Frankfort, we call it Louisville Road hill. Is that sliding?!?
Here ya’ go: http://belskisblog.blogspot.com/
I thought TG did a good job of staying on top of the weather situation this past weekend. I agree that Chris has done and continues to do a phenomenal job of keeping us informed, which keeps us safe!
I noticed they expanded the moderate risk area from earlier. Forbes had the greates threat for Middle TN and gave them an 8/10 TorCon
Thanks. Will still use this site; Louisville goes from downplaying or overplaying.
There is no downplaying on this end. However, assessing the Wednesday outlook is still in question because there is uncertainty in how convection will develop tonight across the region. If we were to get a large convective complex, it may really affect instability during the day on Wednesday despite the great shear profiles. SPC clearly states in the outlook that there are questions about what may happen overnight with storms and how they may affect the atmosphere on Wednesday. In any case, everyone should be prepared for severe on Wed.
Sorry…am stuck in moderation. Hopefully Chris will post my comment.
-11 LI’s in northeast TX on the heels of a southwesterly 60-80kt jet will propel tornadic development across northeast TX and AR. Especially as SR Helicity values are at dangerous levels.
That same SR Helicity Value is raising red flags across southwest and southern KY near the TN border. Primarily from Fort Campbell to Bowling Green. Their storms may occur just before dark or shortly after dark.
“Twisting winds” downed trees and damaged a home early this morning in eastern Shelby County near Waddy. You can read an article about it and view damage/flooding pictures here:
http://www.sentinelnews.com/content/twisting-winds-down-trees-damage-home-waddy
lmk nws now on board for widespread severe event as of 345 et today in afd….new supercells forming now in southwest ky, some 3 to 4 hrs sooner than expected exploding during peak heating! get ready! these will go tornado warned very quick!
Lake Jericho dam deemed safe; residents can return
Tornado warnings already out in western KY.
Please help me understand why no one around here seems to think that we in Louisville will be under a tornadic threat within the next few hours. It looks to me like those storms popping in W. Ky will get to us later this evening. Is this one that our local guys are underestimating?
the ‘spin factor’ or shear values aren’t supportive for tornadoes here yet. The greatest threat for tornadoes exists across sw part of the state for now. That threat will progress east during the next 24 hours. Also, instability has been less here than southwest of Louisville. But everybody will need to be on alert by tonight thru Wednesday.
TVS ssw of Pine Bluff AR
I would like to get some help with good area’s to stage myself for storm chasing tomorrow. I am always trying to study radar before leaving the house but always seem to land in the wrong spots or get to where I want to go and the storms are dying out. Can I get Chris or any other Met. to help out here. Anything is appreciated. Thanks.
MS, love your post but sometimes it goes above my head (sometimes way above), but what is TVS? I’ve looked at the radar and see some serious looking storms but can’t figure out what TVS is. Also what does “SR” Helicity stand for. Thanks
TVS = Tornado Vortex Signature (right?)
A TVS stands for a tornado vortex signature. Indicates storm capable or producing a tornado or with one already on the ground. Per wikipedia: “A tornado vortex signature or tornadic vortex signature, abbreviated TVS, is a Doppler weather radar detected rotation algorithm that indicates the likely presence of a strong mesocyclone that is in some stage of tornadogenesis.”
Thanks
Does anyone know if the latest threat will affect Frankfort?
I’ve always wanted to do some storm chasing but now that I have kids, I couldn’t take the risk. Anyway, happy chasing and hope you see some pretty neat storms….be safe 🙂
In your opinion, how far East will the threat of tornadoes stretch tonight into tomorrow night? We’ve seen very little in the way of severe weather in the past few days.
Wonder if we’ll get some video of that tornado around Hartford..? It’s one of those lone supercells .. the tornado can probably be seen for miles.
Thanks I always do my best to be careful. I don’t like core punching but I end up having to do so anyway on occasions. If anyone has any help on areas for me to stage you can reply here or email me virgil432@hotmail.com
Thanks
Anyone in E-town, that supercell is gonna pass close to you in a bit.
Just heard on scanner police confirming damage in Ohio County/Hartford, KY. No indication of how wide spread it is.
Tornado warned storm moving across Grayson county into Hardin county is looking strong on radar. Folks north of highway 9001 in those counties need to take shelter.
What time will the really bad stuff hit Lexington? Should I sleep with one eye open tonight or is the main batch coming through tomorrow? Appreciate anyone that can give a rough timeline.
basically a great potential but a high bust chance as well. if you all see a complex to our southeast with considerbale clouds overhead the severe threat is less.
this is heading right for e-town. seek shelter in a few min there. this supercell is ligit.
Do you think Anderson Co. will be effect by this storm?
Amazing photos of the Hardin County supercell taken as it passed through Hopkins County earlier at this site
http://www.14wfie.com/category/209482/slideshow-your-tuesday-storm-pics
That thing has plowed through three counties, surely someone has snapped a pic or video by now..? It’ll be interesting to find out how long the damage path is.
Cell is going right over E-town. Looks like it is gonna go right up the Bluegrass parkway. If this thing holds together, could hit Lawrenceburg, Versailles, and Lexington. That cluster of storms entering east Tenn.sure looks bad.
The WFIE 14 Evansville IN website has pictures of the rotating wall cloud before it hit Hardin County. Also, you can see the “hook echo” on the radar right now as it hits E’town.
Wow!. Check out how the main energy is catching up with that rogue super cell in the past 90 minutes. That junk to the SW is looking formidable
WAVE 3 in Louisville has received pictures of a tornado on the ground in Ohio and Grayson Counties.
Be safe everyone, prepare your safe place NOW hoping that it not needed. Lived here in Lexington all my life, and I’m concerned we have something you should prepare for… with moderation.
They also just got a picture of a rotating funnel cloud in Glendale in Hardin County. Now there is a report of tornado damage in Grayson County.
Looks like cell is shifting more due east now….should harrodsburg,danville, burgin, lawrenceburg be on alert? No watches out for our area yet but is sure looks bad on radar. Now that I have little ones I am a little more vigilant and am concerned about it hitting here now. This looks like a bad boy…..and the radar in the southeast looks downright formidable. Trying to decide if I need to get the kiddos up in a bit to head to the basement.
Looks like cell is shifting more due east now….should harrodsburg,danville, burgin, lawrenceburg be on alert? No watches other than flash flood out for our area yet but is sure looks bad on radar. Now that I have little ones I am a little more vigilant and am concerned about it hitting here now. This looks like a bad boy…..and the radar in the southeast looks downright formidable. Trying to decide if I need to get the kiddos up in a bit to head to the basement.
I noticed that too. It looked earlier as if was going to completely go north of E town, not end up going right over E town. Now it looks like it’s headed straight for somewhere is central KY. I hope it weakens……..
Oops….meant southWEST not southeast and also double post….sorry
Had a system pop out of nowhere and reach red on the radar in just 20 min here in Berea. I always check the radar before I let animals go outside, but tonight that isn’t going to work. The rain was brief but much heavier than expected given the information of the radar. Tonight, it seems, things can just pop into existence, so everyone take care.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!
I AM SO OVER THIS!!!!!!!!!!
What us everyones take on pike co in eastern ky. Not much info anywhere as to what we need to expect here. Thanks guys.
A lone supercell can be dangerous….see the Masterson Station tornado in Lex in 2004.I would be wary just south of Lex.
check this out
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=863557302492&set=o.118071565920&type=1&theater
The Mesonet says that Murray had a wind gust at 100.8!!!!!! Amazing, I hope everyone is okay.
I agree completely….someone, anyone have info for us?
http://www.kymesonet.org/live_graphs.html?site=MRRY&offset=0&unittype=E <3 The Mesonet!
I’ve got family in Murray. They said they’ve never experienced a storm like that. Very intense they said, I think that is an understatement, ha. They’ve got trees down around the city. I think schools were canceled today because of power outages.
Hola,
su frase es brillante
http://www.elcoru.com/
Miato