Another Active Week Begins

Good Monday to one and all and welcome to yet another active spring week in the bluegrass state. It has been an incredibly active severe weather pattern so far and that looks to continue this week with a few rounds of strong and severe storms a pretty good bet.

The action may get cranking later today into tonight as a warm front lifts northward through the Ohio Valley. This will likely produce a few clusters of thunderstorms along it. It looks like today’s action will be isolated and mainly in the northern counties. The chance for more organized storms will be this evening into early Tuesday and this will include much of the region. Some of these could be strong or severe with locally heavy rains.

Follow the action here…

Today’s Severe Storms Outlook

That brings us to later Tuesday into Wednesday and what appears to be another big time severe weather outbreak from the midwest into the Ohio Valley. Here is where the Storm Prediction Center will be watching…

Tuesday

Wednesday

The setup will find low pressure developing across the plains and heading toward the northern Ohio Valley late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ahead of this low… moisture will be surging northward and humidity levels around here will be on the rise. Check out the impressive dewpoint temps for late Tuesday…

That is one major ingredient you need for severe weather. Another is instability and the GFS is showing lifted indices between -5 and -9 for most of our region during the same time…

One thing the storms will likely have to overcome will be a fairly strong Cap that may be in place. That’s kind of like placing a lid on a boiling pot as it acts to help suppress thunderstorm development.

There is a new site I recently found that will find the 15 best analogs to a particular upcoming setup. This uses the NAM forecast model as the basis. The map below shows the severe weather reports from the 15 best matches to what the NAM run has been showing for Tuesday and Tuesday night…

Looking farther down the road… another system looks to bring more rounds of storms our way starting Friday into the upcoming Easter Weekend. The hits just keep on coming.

On a related note… many areas are likely to see this April go down as one of the wettest on record. Lexington is already up to the 6th wettest April ever and we still have nearly 2 weeks to go.

I will update as needed so check back. Have a great Monday and take care.

19 Comments

patty on April 18, 2011 at 5:33 am

Thanks Chris! Heads up one and all!

Virgil on April 18, 2011 at 6:34 am

I look forward to the inflated severe weather numbers due to their new reporting process without the duplication filter in place. I believe in more data the better but no report that relies on accurate data of singular events can be reliable if its allowed to contain duplicate information. I mean if the data is supposed to reflect how many people reported an event then sure this new system would be peachy. However the system is supposed to give numbers on Wind, Rain, Hail, Funnel Cloud, Tornado, Injuries, Fatalities. These are singular events and should be counted only once and not counted based on how many people reported that single event. Soap Box Over..

tornadolarkin on April 18, 2011 at 10:42 am

hey chris, can I have the link to that site please?

WXman on April 18, 2011 at 11:41 am

Wow. That analog forecast shows long-track tornadoes even into Kentucky. That (while extremely exciting) is not what we want to see.

Teacher Nate on April 18, 2011 at 1:30 pm

What will be interesting will be how well this system matches up with the analogs. What will also be VERY interessting I think will be not only how well it matches up, but if the actual events show a shift East. The analogs show the traditional “tornado ally” as the hot spots. I wonder if what we will see will be shifted more East?

Dara on April 18, 2011 at 2:49 pm

It seems like some of the storms lately have had a tendency to do just that….if thats the case I think it’ll lose some steam when it reaches the areas with hills. It seems like all the good ones die out when they encounter the EKY hills.

chrisb on April 18, 2011 at 2:55 pm

with temps near 80 degrees and dewpoints above 65 and incredible shear and a strong cold front and a lot of instability how much will darkness of 4 hrs or so limit the threat? 10% less 30% less than at sunset?

WXman on April 18, 2011 at 3:03 pm

Good question. So far, the actual weather in 2011 has NOT matched up with analogs at all. It has been quite a bit different than your “average” La Nina…with the exception that we have seen an increase in severe wx. But exactly where this stuff happens will be interesting to see. I’m thinking MO and IL will get hit hardest. But gosh…SPC is getting a workout this year. And yes…tornado alley is definitely shifting eastward with time.

mitch on April 18, 2011 at 3:31 pm

research shows two tornado alleys one over the southeast and another in the plains. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS3102.1

Dara on April 18, 2011 at 3:36 pm

I had heard there were storm chasers from Kansas that actually came to SKY a few weeks back…looks like they are onto the tornado alley change as well!

rolo on April 18, 2011 at 5:30 pm

we are getting to the point that the ground cant take anymore and u start to see alot of foundation slipping off etc. dangerous stuff more so than any wind. eastern ky the mountains keep anything such as a tornado from doing much.

Jake on April 18, 2011 at 6:41 pm

AccuWeather believes that the constant severe weather will continue through May.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/48539/wild-april-to-be-followed-by-w.asp

WXman on April 18, 2011 at 7:40 pm

Latest AFD from LMK is out, and it’s hardcore. It’s not for the faint of heart. Read at your own risk. 😉 I’m going to charge up the camcorder tonight.

tornadolarkin on April 18, 2011 at 7:59 pm

Anyone know where CB found that map?

tornadolarkin on April 18, 2011 at 8:19 pm

Here we go!! 😀

MS on April 18, 2011 at 10:02 pm

Try this site. I’m pretty sure this is it.

http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/wwproducts.php?reg=DOM3&fhr=060&model=NAM212

Aaron C. on April 19, 2011 at 2:02 am

Thunder in Richmond….

nnsadjwewey on June 14, 2011 at 5:42 pm

onw v oazbag

solar energy systems for homes on June 15, 2011 at 4:55 pm

if new jersey herald

patty on April 18, 2011 at 5:33 am
Thanks Chris! Heads up one and all!
Virgil on April 18, 2011 at 6:34 am
I look forward to the inflated severe weather numbers due to their new reporting process without the duplication filter in place. I believe in more data the better but no report that relies on accurate data of singular events can be reliable if its allowed to contain duplicate information. I mean if the data is supposed to reflect how many people reported an event then sure this new system would be peachy. However the system is supposed to give numbers on Wind, Rain, Hail, Funnel Cloud, Tornado, Injuries, Fatalities. These are singular events and should be counted only once and not counted based on how many people reported that single event. Soap Box Over..
tornadolarkin on April 18, 2011 at 10:42 am
hey chris, can I have the link to that site please?
WXman on April 18, 2011 at 11:41 am
Wow. That analog forecast shows long-track tornadoes even into Kentucky. That (while extremely exciting) is not what we want to see.
Teacher Nate on April 18, 2011 at 1:30 pm
What will be interesting will be how well this system matches up with the analogs. What will also be VERY interessting I think will be not only how well it matches up, but if the actual events show a shift East. The analogs show the traditional “tornado ally” as the hot spots. I wonder if what we will see will be shifted more East?
Dara on April 18, 2011 at 2:49 pm
It seems like some of the storms lately have had a tendency to do just that….if thats the case I think it’ll lose some steam when it reaches the areas with hills. It seems like all the good ones die out when they encounter the EKY hills.
chrisb on April 18, 2011 at 2:55 pm
with temps near 80 degrees and dewpoints above 65 and incredible shear and a strong cold front and a lot of instability how much will darkness of 4 hrs or so limit the threat? 10% less 30% less than at sunset?
WXman on April 18, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Good question. So far, the actual weather in 2011 has NOT matched up with analogs at all. It has been quite a bit different than your “average” La Nina…with the exception that we have seen an increase in severe wx. But exactly where this stuff happens will be interesting to see. I’m thinking MO and IL will get hit hardest. But gosh…SPC is getting a workout this year. And yes…tornado alley is definitely shifting eastward with time.
mitch on April 18, 2011 at 3:31 pm
research shows two tornado alleys one over the southeast and another in the plains. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS3102.1
Dara on April 18, 2011 at 3:36 pm
I had heard there were storm chasers from Kansas that actually came to SKY a few weeks back…looks like they are onto the tornado alley change as well!
rolo on April 18, 2011 at 5:30 pm
we are getting to the point that the ground cant take anymore and u start to see alot of foundation slipping off etc. dangerous stuff more so than any wind. eastern ky the mountains keep anything such as a tornado from doing much.
Jake on April 18, 2011 at 6:41 pm
AccuWeather believes that the constant severe weather will continue through May.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/48539/wild-april-to-be-followed-by-w.asp
WXman on April 18, 2011 at 7:40 pm
Latest AFD from LMK is out, and it’s hardcore. It’s not for the faint of heart. Read at your own risk. 😉 I’m going to charge up the camcorder tonight.
tornadolarkin on April 18, 2011 at 7:59 pm
Anyone know where CB found that map?
tornadolarkin on April 18, 2011 at 8:19 pm
Here we go!! 😀
MS on April 18, 2011 at 10:02 pm
Try this site. I’m pretty sure this is it.
http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/wwproducts.php?reg=DOM3&fhr=060&model=NAM212
Aaron C. on April 19, 2011 at 2:02 am
Thunder in Richmond….
nnsadjwewey on June 14, 2011 at 5:42 pm
onw v oazbag
solar energy systems for homes on June 15, 2011 at 4:55 pm
if new jersey herald

19 Comments

Follow Chris Bailey

Account Login

Weather Archives