Good Sunday everyone. Warmer weather is ready to surge back into the region and that can only mean one thing. Thunderstorms and severe weather will surely follow. That has been the trend of the spring… every time it warms it storms. We will dive into why that is the case this spring and look ahead to the next round of storms a few days from now.
The latest severe weather outbreak was nothing short of amazing as we have had more than 200 tornado reports over the past 3 days. Many of these were long tracked, deadly tornadoes that spread from Oklahoma all the way to the east coast. While Kentucky was spared the worst… two twisters did touch down in Trigg county.
This outbreak comes on the heels of the bad boy from just over a few weeks ago…
That one spawned the highest number of severe weather reports on record. Why are we seeing this unusually active severe weather season? There are a couple of signals that have been showing up for a few months and have been pointing the way toward a busy storm season.
The first culprit is the continued well above normal snowpack across Canada and much of the northern Hemisphere…
That has been causing colder than normal temps to take up residence across much of Canada with the occasional push southward into the United States.
That air then meets up with seasonal return of warm and moist air coming northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Except this year… the gulf waters are much warmer than normal…
Put those two extreme signals together and you have the recipe for major severe weather outbreaks from the plains through the Ohio Valley and into the southeast.
If you want to see a perfect illustration of these two at work… look no further than this coming Tuesday as another big severe weather outbreak will likely get going. The temp anomaly map for this Tuesday shows the battle…
In just a few hundred miles you will find temps nearing 20 degrees above normal and 20 degrees below normal. That is a heck of a temp gradient to spawn a big storm system capable of more severe weather and that is exactly what should happen early this week…
The sad thing is there may be another similar storm that moves in a few days later toward the end of the week.
I just don’t see this pattern changing very much over the next month or so. The heart of the severe weather season is still ahead of us and we may challenge records before all is said and done.
I guess we will enjoy the nice weather we have out there today and into Monday. Highs today will head back into the 60s as the sun returns. Readings for Monday will surge toward 70 or better with a slight chance for isolated storms in the north.
Have a great Sunday and take care.
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A very ominous sign of things to come……
2004 had 1820 tornadoes, had 127 in April. We have had 141 so far. We are also likely going to come close to 2008’s April number.
Any idea what is in store for Easter weekend yet Chris?
I remember Chris mentioning a little while back that the severe weather data for this season would no longer have duplicate reports removed. Given this fact, how do you arrive at a filter factor that can be used to get to the true number?
The only way I can think of would be to find the mean number of duplicate reports for each of the past 10 years, and then get the mean of those numbers. Then we have a multiplier to put against the current inflated severe report numbers and get us closer to the truth.
Yeah that change in reporting numbers doesn’t make any sense. I mean if one person reports high winds and your next door neighbor reports high winds, its now counted as 2 reports of high winds when its the exact same high winds. I feel this is just a ploy to inflate numbers for a cause to try to prove the danger of “global warming” I don’t like the new system as there was nothing wrong with the old way of just counting single occurances of severe weather events instead of now reporting multiple observations of the same event. There is no science to inflating numbers.
I say, the more reports the better. We need more spotters in the field and their reports are essential for the safety of others in the adjacent counties. I would appreciate seeing one of ‘my reports’ listed and not excused because of someone else’s rendition of the ‘same’ thing. Damage may not be the same in all reports, injuries may not be the same in all reports.
I think it’s a great idea of multiple reports. The more, the better.
Indeed, the more reports the better, so long as all the reports are recorded in full.
The average citizen is not a trained observer, this is why witnesses to crimes all have very different accounts of what happened and what things looked like.
If you have ten full detailed accounts of a severe weather event the truth of it is generally somewhere in the middle. People are generally very bad at estimating wind speed and size and or distance of an event so the more data the better.
The more reports the better sure.. But there is no sense in counting 2 reports of the same severe weather event as 2 occurances. especially if two people standing next to eachother decide they want to report seperately and their reports are nearly identical. I think if the NWS wants this new idea to be credible then they need to re-release numbers of severe weather events from the past with the duplicate events not withheld so that we can get a more accurate account of if a particular storm system was really more severe than others or if this massive jump in severe weather events was just a result of not filtering data. By this new means I could inflate the number of reports by reporting as several different people, how is that going to make any kind of science prove anything. Also where is the verification in any of this. Its not like the NWS has the staff or the time to verify every single report as a valid report.
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