Good Wednesday to one and all. What a Tuesday we are coming off of as heavy rains caused serious flooding across much of central and eastern Kentucky. 24 hour rain totals were in the 2″-4″ range for many areas and that was more than enough to cause high water concerns.
Our active spring pattern rolls on and we take a look at the next system to impact our region. A lot of people are asking about the upcoming summer and we take a sneak peak into what may be ahead of us.
In the short term… we have some nice weather for a few days. Sunshine returns today as temps warm well into the 60s with low 70s in the far west. Thursday looks to be the best day of the week with readings in the 70s with mainly sunny skies.
The week is likely to end on a booming note as another powerhouse low cranks up across the plains states and heads toward the Great Lakes. This one looks to be another big time severe weather maker for a lot of folks and this should include our region. The best time for strong or severe storms around here will be late Friday into Friday night. Heavy rains and gusty winds will also be likely with this big low. Check out how impressive this is being modeled…
European Model Ensembles
That has a classic look to it and we will need to be on guard once again.
As the low and cold front sweeps across the region on Saturday… a quick shot of chill will move in. The models are showing this to push through here much faster and our Sunday may end up being a pretty decent day to end the weekend.
I am already watching the middle and end of next week as the pattern is ripe for a prolonged heavy rain and severe weather event setting up in our general vicinity.
If you are looking long term toward late spring and summer… we have a little nugget for you in the form of a seasonal computer forecast model. This is only one model and doesn’t have a great track record… but it does have a lot of friends showing something similar. A lot of the analogs I am looking at are also leaning in the same general direction. The model is known as the CFS…
Temp Forecast
Rainfall Forecast
If you are wondering… that model shows a cooler than normal summer with ample rainfall. I can’t really argue with what the model is showing as several analog years are showing the same thing. We will be talking more about the summer forecast in the weeks to come.
Have a great Wednesday and take care.
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Thanks Chris!! I have to say I wouldn’t have hurt feelings if this summer were to be a mild one!! The older I get the harder it is for me to take the heat!! As for the weekend…. bring it on!
After last years FL like summer, I would absolutely love a cooler and wetter than normal summer. I am a hater of anything hotter than 80.
Oh awesome… I am all over a cooler summer. Thanks Chris!
I agree. Anything HOTTER than 80 is getting uncomfortable. As a matter of fact, I would be happy with 70 to 75 ALL summer!
I spend 3-5 weeks in the Bahamas every summer running a mission camp. Now, I’m not hot unless its over 110 Heat Index. I love the heat….love the summer.
I’ll second that! Bring on the heat!
Yeah, like 2004…the perfect year. Not a single 90 in LEX all year, a few 85s here and there…and a LOT of 70s all Summer long with t-storms. That was awesome.
So, lots of lawn mowing in the coming months 🙂
Thanks, Chris!
Sooo happy to see some sunshine today. But, I must admit, I am not looking forward to the allergies. I compiled all the proven home remedies for allergies and asthma. http://helenbukulmez.com/2011/04/09/asthma-and-allergies-best-home-remedy-suggestions-natural-alternative-medicine-relief/ Hope, it helps someone.
Thanks, Chris!
Sooo happy to see some sunshine today. But, I must admit, I am not looking forward to the allergies. I compiled all the proven home remedies for allergies and asthma. http://helenbukulmez.com/2011/04/09/asthma-and-allergies-best-home-remedy-suggestions-natural-alternative-medicine-relief/ Hope, it helps someone.
Tha sounds wonderful!
Jake
I have to disagree with what Chris is saying. Teleconnections (especially ENSO, PDO, and AMO) are pointing to another dry summer. Of course teleconnections aren’t always right, if they were it would have been a warm, wet winter.
Thanks Chris for the peak at summer!! 🙂
I have an update on my blog for those interested.
Not sure why you disagree with Chris? Like he said it’s one models look into summer. He also said it doesn’t have the greatest track record but some of the other models are saying the same thing. He’s giving us a small nugget of what MIGHT happen this summer. It also looks like May will be normal in rainfall and June looks to be under in rainfall and then the tables turn. It will all balance out anyway, it always does.
“that model shows a cooler than normal summer with ample rainfall. I can’t really argue with what the model is showing as several analog years are showing the same thing” That is the comment I was talking about.
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