Good Thursday everyone. Much colder air has moved into the bluegrass state after a heck of a soaking rainstorm. Many areas picked up 2″-3″ of rain over the past few days and our pattern is showing no signs of letting up. We may do this all over again early next week before the pattern dives into winter.
Speaking of winter… you may start today with a couple of snowflakes flying across the region. The best chance of seeing those will be across the east and southeast. Our temps are talking a walk on the cold side with highs near 40 in the east to low and mid 40s elsewhere.
Follow today’s slap of reality…
Current Temps
Winds will be gusty and add to the chill in the air as some afternoon clearing takes place. This will set us up for a very cold night with some readings dipping close to 20.
Friday will be another chilly one with temps back into the 40s for highs under a sunny sky.
Temps will head back into the 50s over the weekend as clouds begin to increase. These clouds should bring rain back in here by Sunday and this looks to be the start of another VERY rainy period as we head into Thanksgiving week.
Look at the rain forecast from the GFS for early next week…
That would certainly up the ante for some flooding across Kentucky and much of the Ohio Valley. We will keep an eye on that setup over the next few days.
On a rainy note… Louisville is now up to the 6th wettest year on record and Lexington is just about to hit the top 10. The wettest year on record is within reach for both cities in this type of pattern.
If you are looking for winter… there is a chance winter comes looking for you sooner than you think. I have been targeting the end of November for a flip into winter and many of the latest medium range models are coming on board. The signs have been showing up for a while and my analog years have all argued strongly for this to happen sometime in late November.
The models are trying to get the winter party started at some point Thanksgiving weekend. The GFS is honing in on the big switch…
The Canadian Model is seeing something similar for Turkey Weekend…
That’s right on cue to kickoff the Christmas season. Wait… what? You say the Christmas season started after Labor Day? Halloween and Thanksgiving are overrated, anyway. 
Have a great day and check back for updates. Take care.
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GFS still indicates a possible severe weather outbreak on the weekend after Thanksgiving. In fact, this mornings run looks even more conducive to wind damage/tornadoes.
Love reading your posts! Keep up the good work, and when are you coming back to the Bluegrass??
The flakes are flying in Pikeville right now!!!!!!!!
ty CB.
nothing but blue skies and sunshine here this morning, I was kinda hoping to see some snowflakes flying around…:(
watching how the rain set up the last 2 days and the forecasted upcoming rain event kind of has me worried as far as being an extreme se ky. snow lover for the upcoming winter…My feeling is that the areas along the ohio river from Paducah to cincy are gonna be the sweet spots this yr…Im afraid that the storm tracks are gonna cause MAJOR HAVIC here in se ky. this winter as far as storms riding right up over east ky..putting us in a SLOPPY MESS…I HOPE NOT…but seems like thats the trend trying to take shape…but we’ll see…
oh by the way Jim Caldwell over at wymt.com put his thoughts on the upcoming winter out yesterday…and Jimmy boy says SNOW/ICE…he’s actually showing us in east ky..to ON AVERAGE recieve a tad bit more snow than last winter….I say BRING IT ON!!..
Looks like those toasty models for all the way to mid December are off the boards now. I told you folks don’t even try to out whit Chris B. with winter weather forecast. Bring on Winter 🙂
According to some looks like the Pacific is slowly improving…GFS ensembles have the PNA going positive and the trough in AK slowly pulling nw…Hopefully in 2 or 3 weeks the winter pattern sets in and we all get what we wish for……SNOWEEEEEEEEEEEE…and lots of it
here is yet another ** WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK ** from a Met. in Charlotte NC. who is showing the Tn/ohio valley in his words a Brutal cold/snowy winter this yr…hmmmm….the more of these forecasts that are put out of lately are all showing the same thing…cold/snowy with potential for ice storms as well…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ERPMqKMhf5U&feature=related
Why is Jackson still forecasting 5-10 winds for today when we currently have 20 -25 mph winds?? They must not have stepped outside today!
I need a LIKE BUTTON!!!!!
yeah, me too 🙂
an updated euro model weekly forecast has a brief cooldown for the end of the month into dec. after that some arctic air moves into the northern US but the SE ridge gets strong. Storm track through mid-month is still northwest of KY. The pattern does turn more favorable after the 15th. Overall I do agree things aren’t as bleak as they were a week ago still don’t think enough deep cold air gets in to makes things more than seasoanbily chilly for a few days at a time though Mid Dec. Also remember those teleconnection values change daily. But the trends show the strong – PNA is going away which is very good news.
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
22 allready here in kettering, oh :O
Yea the weeklies showed improvement in week 4(Dec 13-19)…Just hope the models has it wrong and that big ugly pig in the pacific is gone a little sooner..LOL…
Yeah, I saw the new Euro runs as well. It does look like things will be better by Mid-December, but we’ve been down this road before with saying this in late October about November. Also remember that those teleconnection values are based on the model runs. Thus, if the model solutions are wrong…so are the indicies. In the end, this mild pattern is not going to go away too fast. Patience is the key.