Good evening, everyone. We are rolling through a very nice stretch of weather and it has one more day left in the tank. After that, we start to ugly it up a bit with a winter looking setup moving in for the weekend and through the first week of March.
Temps for Wednesday should hit the 60s in most areas as clouds slowly thicken. Winds will be a little gusty as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That allows for a weak wave of low pressure to develop along this front on Thursday and that should bring a few showers through the region. There’s the chance for a little mix in the north during this time.
An arctic front moves in here for the start of the weekend and that should bring some gusty showers with it. There’s the chance for a few flakes showing up after it blows through here on Saturday.
It’s the system coming in behind this that’s getting some attention. With our storm track setting up to the south, the potential is there for winter weather across Kentucky. The European Model continues to show this potential very well for Sunday and Sunday night…
The Canadian continues to run in lock step with the Euro…
Earlier today, the GFS got on board with this potential, but it jumped right back off this afternoon. The model is back to playing up the Friday and Saturday system before downplaying the Sunday system…
The GFS is a mess and was set to be replaced by the new version of the GFS I’ve been showing, but that new version is performing even worse. So, NOAA has postponed that replacement until it can do more work in the new version. The Euro, regardless of flaws, has always been king and will continue to be king.
Enjoy the evening and take care.
Thanks Chris. As much as I’d like to see a good snow, we will be onto March and my mind turns to longer and warmer days. And trees getting new leaves. I have seen big snows in March. But that doesn’t mean I want one! However, after all the rain we e had, March or not, I’d rather have snow. Guess we’ll see. Have a good evening.
As beleaguered as the GFS has been over the years, it’s been a survivor as of late.
While it may have been tweaked here and there (especially since it flopped so badly with Hurricane Sandy in 2012), it’s still remarkable that the GFS has beaten back attempts to replace it. As Roger Dodger touched on earlier and CB mentions now, the NWS has put the brakes on the updated FV3 version of the GFS for the time being. The FIM model, intended to outright replace the GFS, has also been a disappointment.
Reminds me a little of the WWII era Sherman tank, which has been described as the worst tank to win a war 😉 .
I hope it happens, this could be the last chance for a decent snowfall foe everybody.
Except for far SE KY;( EURO keeps me rain about the entire event. I hope the model is wrong by about 50 miles. Stinks but it is what it is.
Tennessee will conduct a statewide tornado drill tomorrow morning at 9:30am CST/10:30 am EST. It’s part of Tennessee Severe Weather and Flood Awareness Week.
https://www.weather.gov/ohx/swaw2019
Kentucky and other states have their Severe Weather Awareness Week events in the coming weeks.
No model has been king this winter to me..Ensembles have been terrible along with the ops..Euro busted bad early Dec. along with every other model..Big let down..One of the biggest bust I’ve ever seen..Still think about it and just shake my head..it was a gut punch..How can models show feet of snow within 24 hours and bust..Goodbye winter of 2018-19..Good riddance, you were a dud..
We received feet of rain though! Never miss rain–those sorry models.
My meteorological winter-to-date is an astonishing 25.75 inches of RAIN! I am currently on track to top 100 inches annually IF this pattern actually lasts all year. I doubt every month will yield around 10 inches of rain, but one never knows with spring looking much wetter than average at least early on!
Oh…it was a disgusting BUST. Truly the worst snow bust of my lifetime and I have seen many but not at the level of 0 inches like that.
I hope this system works out for somebody on the blog but I am so skeptical. Its hard to bet against the trends and the pattern we have been in for 15 months.
A epic bust..Remember well models shifting south but at the last 48 hrs we had a NW shift..Models including the Euro still had us at over a foot of snow..Well we know how that turned out..Will never ever ever trust models again after that ridiculous horrible bust..Biggest bust of all time..Still hurts to even think about it..Still King..Yea right..
The GFS may be a mess (always has been), however, it has indeed outperformed ALL the other models “this” season starting with the early December bust. While other models were showing ridiculous amounts of snow all the way up to the non-event, the GFS held steady showing little accumulation.
TRUTH! I remember telling you I was betting against the GFS for that early December snow bust, but I also said I wouldn’t bet my house!
Glad I didn’t, lol, I would be homeless living in a mud hole as the GFS was right on that storm, overall anyways. I think it had the precip too low but at least the TYPE was right as the model showed mostly cold rain with some mix.
I’m not a meteorologist and I’m sure the Euro has historically performed better, but the GFS has been the king for the SE part of the state this year. Some ridiculous misses by the NAM, Euro, and new GFS this winter.
It was so bad that many made jokes locally on Facebook. Worse, WYMT set up in downtown Harlan live in which 0 inches fell. People were upset to say the least as money was wasted preparing for nothing with media attention to boot! I hope I never see anything like that bust again. It is one matter to only get a few inches when several predicted but it was 18 inches plus to 0 flat!
Meant for Cold-Rain but message jumped the board…lol
Any ideas *why* the new GFS has proven to be so inaccurate?