Good Monday everyone and welcome to the first full day of spring. Mother nature has decided to skip ahead into the month of May as we have a couple of very warm days ahead of us. Don’t let this weather fool you as our pattern is about to undergo a major change that will make the weather feel more like late February. Confused as to what month it really is? If not… you will be soon.
Temps today are going to warm well into the 70s for many. Areas across the west and south are likely to see readings soaring into the lower 80s. You can track the May temps here…
Current Temps
A warm front will be draped just to our north and this is likely to fire up some scattered showers and thunderstorms today into Tuesday. Some of these may impact our northern and eastern counties and we will keep an eye on those. You can too by tracking them on regional radar…
A few of these storms may be severe in the east today. Here is the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…
Tuesday’s weather will be a lot like today with similar temps and the scattered storm threat in the north and east.
As we head into the middle of the week… a strong storm will develop across the plains and roll eastward across the northern Ohio Valley. This low will have a lot of warm, unstable air ahead of it meaning we will have to watch for the possibility of severe thunderstorms. Here is the setup…
As the front blows through late Wednesday into early Thursday… MUCH colder air will filter in for the end of the week and it will be in no big hurry to leave. As a matter of fact… this is a big time chilly pattern that is locking in for a few weeks across the eastern half of the country.
We have talked about blocking returning over Greenland (-NAO) and now we see the possibility of a big ridge going up along the west coast (+PNA). Look at the Ensembles forecast for these two…
Basically as the blocking begins to break down… the PNA ridge takes over into early April leading to more cold air dumping into the eastern half of the country. This shows up very well on the 500mb height anomaly map…
An upper level map like that equals a very chilly pattern for a lot of people…
Green thumbs beware… This could lead to freezing temps into the first week of April. It’s also a pattern suggesting we have not seen our last snowflakes of the season. 
On that depressing note… have a great Monday and take care.
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I hate all this talk about chilly temps when we have had such a beautiful weekend!! Thanks for the warnings Chris!!
Woohoo!
Yay, my lovely winter has not let go yet! 😉
Hopefully that April 1st map is a April fools joke!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I agree!!!…UGH!!!
Slight Risk on the day 3 outlook is almost like having a Moderate Risk on the day 1. This bears watching closely.
Well at least I haven’t put away my winter clothes yet…mostly due to laziness. 😉
Just out in my yard looking at all the shrubs and flowers trying to bud…hope the cold doesn’t get them. Having said that, I’m really not ready for 80 degree days yet….
I’m about ready to try out my new weather station, the Ambient Weather WS-2080 Wireless model.
I’m a little bit skeptical about the mounting kit. I may have to end up relocating the temp/humidity sensor and rain gauge.
12z nam does indicate the potential for a moderate risk event.
Chris, can’t we just keep the temps where they are today, and get a little more sunshine? Oh well, we always know that when the warm days start, there are those few weeks of cold we still have to get through. so, we will take what we get, and move one day closer to warm weather season. ONly thing is, it is heck trying to figure out how to dress! 😉 Have a great Monday, everyone!
I am hoping for a legit severe weather event!!! 😀
I have an update over on my blog for those interested.
Hi!
REally admire the post u make.
Love your way of thinking.
Cool, man!