Good Monday, everyone. On this Veterans Day, I want to say a big THANK YOU to all the brave men and women who have served and are currently serving this amazing country we live in. In terms of the holiday weather, we have a pretty awesomely wicked weather day taking shape across Kentucky and surrounding states. A mild first half of the day will be followed by a big time blast of winter to end it. This will be complete with the first light snowfall of the young season and the potential for record lows as arctic air settles in.
Let’s get this party started with some fresh thoughts:
- You’re going to spend much of the day thinking I’m crazy. Why? Because temps may reach the low and mid 60s across the eastern half of the state into early this afternoon.
- Then the arctic front arrives and you guys will be like… Ok, I get it now.
- The temp drop will be prolific from west to east from late this afternoon through the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Readings that are in the 60s today will bottom out in the teens and low 20s by Tuesday morning.
- Rain develops along and ahead of the front then quickly switches over to light to moderate snow behind it. This band may have some “hot spots” within it as it rolls to the east. Those would be overachieving areas.
- Widespread enhancement of the snow is possible across southeastern Kentucky late tonight.
- Snow showers and flurries will be noted into Tuesday on a strong northwesterly flow off Lake Michigan.
- Snow accumulations are likely across the entire region. I’m going to keep the current coating-2″ with the potential for locally higher amounts in the southeast. There’s a chance I upgrade the numbers bu a little.
- With such a rapid temperature drop while it’s snowing, a flash freeze is very possible. This could lead to some issues on area roads. I do expect some delays and cancellations Tuesday morning. Don’t assume it will be your school, though. 🙂
- Single digit wind chills are possible Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. Record or near record lows will also be possible Wednesday.
As I said, I’m going to roll with the First Call map for now…
The forecast models are now going for a general 1″-3″ for much of the state, with some higher totals possible in the southeast…
GFS
NAM
Hi Res NAM
GFS Ensembles
European
You can also see those “hot spots” showing up in some areas.
I will have updates later today, including around noon-ish. I will have lots of winter weather tracking tools then, too.
Have a great day and take care.
Let’s go!
I would think the higher amounts that are consistently showing up would be for the HIGH ELEVATIONS in SE KY, then I consider East TN, especially the valley in Knoxville. I am a*s*suming the models think the new low intensifies down my way bringing enhancement, heavier snow. I hope for once this consistently pays off and SE KY doesn’t get cheated, per usual. I would think we could stay all rain too long before the transition down here, as is usually the case, but this arctic air should move too fast for that.
Even if only an inch or less, I will be happy, as again, i have only seen accumulation a handful of times before Thanksgiving in my lifetime!
So what’s CB trying to say?? That it’s not going to be 80 degrees out and sunny with a gentle SW breeze and low humidity anytime soon here in Kentucky?
Yes, I predict May 18th for that to happen.
Perhaps one more day on the calendar year, as well in 2020.
I’ll go with April 20
I’ll go with May 4th, 2020.
I suppose some forgot we had measurable snow last year in November before thanksgiving, Jackson with 1.4″ on the 15th, most of us under an inch, and even had a touch of Arctic air and a little more snow during the last week of the month with lows in the teens and highs not breaking the freezing mark for some. It too was a cold month. But this month has the looks of a top ten cold November unless we have a complete flip the second half (not likely).
So, 3 of the 4 local channels in Louisville pretty much have same consensus as Chris for the area.
Only one who has Louisville getting at most under an inch is WHAS. They said less than 1″ for the viewing area south of the Ohio River.
We’ll see who wins out on the first measurable snowfall predictions this year.
I think I will keep a tally and see what the records are by end of March.
Depends on how much is a coating….
Coating to me is a dusting Mike.
Enjoy it while you can because it will all be gone by the end of the week. Kind of like the wicked witch in the Wizard of OZ. I’m melting.
The cold will certainly be gone. If I see a tiny accumulation it won’t last much past sunrise in the tri-state. But on a positive note. It will be great to see the flakes flying this season. Hopefully a sign of things to come.
I hope we both overachieve! My biggest and almost only snow for the no show 2018-2019 season was Nov 30th/Dec 1st last year. Some got accumulation before Thanksgiving last year as people keep mentioning but far SE KY only had a dusting in the valley until the end of the month, at least where I live.
Wishing you snow friend!
Going purely by past occurrences, my bets are on the hi res NAM which is the only model showing the infamous warm nose right over south se KY. This exactly what happened every time last year which resulted in 3/4 inch for the entire season.