Good Monday, everyone. On this Veterans Day, I want to say a big THANK YOU to all the brave men and women who have served and are currently serving this amazing country we live in.  In terms of the holiday weather, we have a pretty awesomely wicked weather day taking shape across Kentucky and surrounding states. A mild first half of the day will be followed by a big time blast of winter to end it. This will be complete with the first light snowfall of the young season and the potential for record lows as arctic air settles in.

Let’s get this party started with some fresh thoughts:

  • You’re going to spend much of the day thinking I’m crazy. Why? Because temps may reach the low and mid 60s across the eastern half of the state into early this afternoon.
  • Then the arctic front arrives and you guys will be like… Ok, I get it now.
  • The temp drop will be prolific from west to east from late this afternoon through the wee hours of Tuesday morning. Readings that are in the 60s today will bottom out in the teens and low 20s by Tuesday morning.
  • Rain develops along and ahead of the front then quickly switches over to light to moderate snow behind it. This band may have some “hot spots” within it as it rolls to the east. Those would be overachieving areas.
  • Widespread enhancement of the snow is possible across southeastern Kentucky late tonight.
  • Snow showers and flurries will be noted into Tuesday on a strong northwesterly flow off Lake Michigan.
  • Snow accumulations are likely across the entire region. I’m going to keep the current coating-2″ with the potential for locally higher amounts in the southeast. There’s a chance I upgrade the numbers bu a little.
  • With such a rapid temperature drop while it’s snowing, a flash freeze is very possible. This could lead to some issues on area roads. I do expect some delays and cancellations Tuesday morning. Don’t assume it will be your school, though. 🙂
  • Single digit wind chills are possible Tuesday morning and again Wednesday morning. Record or near record lows will also be possible Wednesday.

As I said, I’m going to roll with the First Call map for now…

The forecast models are now going for a general 1″-3″ for much of the state, with some higher totals possible in the southeast…



Hi Res NAM

GFS Ensembles


You can also see those “hot spots” showing up in some areas.

I will have updates later today, including around noon-ish. I will have lots of winter weather tracking tools then, too.

Have a great day and take care.