Good Friday afternoon gang. The latest model data coming in is suggesting an increased risk for high water across much of the state… especially central and eastern Kentucky.
Ironically, eastern Kentucky is the only part of the state not under a Flood or Flash Flood Watch…
There is simply no excuse for the NWS offices in Jackson and Charleston, WV to not have watches up for their entire forecast areas. Given the amount of water that has fallen in recent weeks and the rivers and streams that are still running high… I have no idea what those folks are thinking. Kudos to Paducah, Louisville and Wilmington for being proactive and doing what is right… putting a watch out.
Want to see why the lack of a watch for eastern Ky has me so fired up? Look at the latest rainfall forecast coming from the NAM…
The NAM now has support from the European and Canadian models with this axis of 2″+ rains showing up across central and eastern Kentucky Saturday into Sunday.
This swath of heavy rains is due to another wave of low pressure riding northward along the front on Sunday. This will likely have some VERY heavy rains along it. Persons living in a flood prone area need to be on guard this weekend.
I still expect a touch of light snow on the back edge of the precip shield Sunday… especially in the east. The NAM is still showing some accumulation for some…
I will believe that when I see it. 
The focus of the weekend is the potential for more flooding problems across the weekend and that is something we will update as needed so check back.
Have a great afternoon and take care.
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From the NWS in Jackson:
“AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS WEEKEND…04/12Z NAM CONTINUES THE
SLOW…WET TREND THAT THE MODEL HAS SHOWN SINCE LAST NIGHT/S 00Z
RUN…INDICATING OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE TREND IS CERTAINLY FOR A WETTER SYSTEM…
BUT THE GFS CONTINUES TO PAINT A MUCH LESS WET SCENARIO…AT LEAST
THROUGH THE 04/06Z RUN…AND THE SREF/ECMWF/GEM/UKMET CONSENSUS IS
NOT AS WET AS THE NAM EITHER. OHRFC RIVER GUIDANCE THIS MORNING
BASED ON A TONED DOWN HPC QPF FORECAST WILL BRING SEVERAL OF OUR
RIVER POINTS TO FLOOD STAGE. THOSE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON A NOT SO
CERTAIN QPF FORECAST THOUGH SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW…BUT A
DETERMINISTIC FORECAST HAS TO BE MADE SO WILL GO WITH THE OHRFC
GUIDANCE. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
TRENDS CAN BE SEEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE…BUT WILL BE QUICK ON THE
TRIGGER IF THE WETTER TREND HOLDS.”
Tell us how you really feel about Jackson NWS chris? lol
For the first time all winter I think I can honestly say I am thrilled to be in the ZERO area for snow. I’m over it now. We’ve gotten to take the kids outside at work more than we’ve had to keep them in the past couple weeks and it’s been SO nice. I said a few weeks back it was time for Old Man Winter to go big or go home… well now it’s just time for him to go home.
Just let it hold off until tom. evening!!
Is winter and the potential for cold finally over?
Chris, I’m not liking the thought process by the NWS in JKL right now either. How many model runs does one need for guidance to issue a flood watch for an area that has already experienced flooding problems this week and is forecasted to receive up to an additional 1.5″ (or more) of rain? I’m sure one will eventually be issued by JKL but it is a bit frustrating to see them hestitate this late in the game for a weekend event. At this point in the day, a lot of people are turning their thoughts towards their plans for the weekend and can potentially be caught unaware by the situation because it was downplayed and/or they felt because no watches were issued, it’s not a serious threat.
Just my 2 cents though…
…Plus, the NAM has WAY overdone QPF in recent events.
The last two flooding events the NWS in JKL has issued statements before the events saying that they did not expect any hydro problems as they put it. The last event they said that they thought that the system was moving too fast and we know how that ended up. I hope this weekend that they are right for a change.
well i guess that have listened to you Chris. lol my area(Greenup) is now under a flood watch for sat – sun.
Way to flex your muscles CB.
I guess they just couldn’t see another low trekking up the front. Anyway, it does appear central and east KY will get the heaviest rains this time. Even the GFS shows a potential for well over an inch.
Chris, I am not surprised at JKL. They have been a little bit slow on the draw for most of the winter. But thank YOU for the heads up. It is appreciated! while I can appreciate them wanting to be cautious, I have to agreee with Chastity on this one. These areas have had much rain and even with a few days of calm, the ground is still very soggy. That is my thought on it, anyway.