Good Wednesday to one and all. Temps are coming up, but clouds are already rolling in ahead of our next storm system. This continues to look like a rain and snow maker for much of our region, but there are some questions with the flakes part of the storm. Shocking, right?
The first wave of precipitation impacts the state Thursday and could be a brief mix in the west. Showers will then quickly develop and overspread the state Thursday night into Friday. From there, we watch one low spin into the Ohio Valley and close off as another low develops to our east.
The models continue to trend toward a little better setup for some snow on Saturday. The current run of the NAM only goes through 7am Saturday, but you can clearly see the snows wrapping in here…
Here’s the Canadian…
EURO
The GFS is the lone model that want’s little part of snow… Anywhere. The thermals look way too warm with this across the Mississippi Valley and east…
That’s VERY apparent on the snowfall maps. Don’t even look at Kentucky and, instead, focus on areas to our west and look at how drastically different the GFS is from everything else…
GFS
GFS Ensembles
Canadian
EURO
Even the NAM just through 7am Saturday…
Obviously, all the models have some disagreement, but the poor GFS isn’t even in the same ballpark with this storm anywhere.
I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.
Looks like if you are a snow lover in our area. Then the EURO is the one you want to be wrong.
I certainly don’t want to bring any hype or false excitement (a little hope only) but there are still signs that the PV is breaking down and may affect the lower US in February and March. Even if it fully breaks down later in February, we need the oscillations to realign in order for the east instead of the west to get all of the cold. I hope we both get one decent snow yet.
As far as this weekend goes, I say the high elevations of Black, Pine and WVA highlands could get over 3 up to 6 inches above 3,000ft from a set up like this but will be very hard for the lower elevations with temps above freezing to see much. I hope we both get a dab with our best chances at night time for sure!
The Euro is correct…. I just laugh when the other models are shown. However, they do present entertainment value, I get it….
It’s not about “entertainment” or “hype”.
Actually, I have seen CB himself agree about the “entertainment value” of some models in the past….
Thank you
Still does not mean that is why he posts stuff. If you want hype, try reading Rolos “OLD SKOOL” comments.
Hamlin needs a fact checker, hahaha…. did I say it was posted for that reason? I said it presents entertainment value, nothing about the intent of the poster, and not a word about hype…. haha, funny
I totally agree. The EURO will be right.
As far as snowfall is concerned, we’re still behind. What has fallen from the sky has been drastically different from what’s been put on the ground. As far as what’s been on the ground is concerned, we’re very, very far behind.
We need a system to not just get snow falling, but also piling up a little bit. Are we going to get it this winter?
Another healthy system means mo’ cold rain. Just let go of snow CB! This winter seems set. Cold = dry, Wet = warm.
Not really kidding that much.
I still think that some areas of southeastern and eastern Kentucky will see a decent snow event from the next system. For western and central Kentucky it will be mostly in the form of rain followed by backside snow showers later in the weekend. Next week is forecast to gradually warm up and calm down until the weekend when a slight chance of rain showers return. My arm chair forecast. Have a great day everyone.
I agree but think mostly the high peaks with places like Harlan, Middlesboro, Pikeville and such a bit warm for much sticking during the day time. If the temps were going to be near 30 instead of near 40 for a high Saturday, everyone could get a nice wet snow but looks very warm for the valleys here and out west towards tour area. Maybe some accumulation Saturday night?
A rare instance when I disagree with the Euro. If the moisture will be there between hours 72 and 96, it will not be all rain. The 850 mb level from the Euro and same initialization will support a period of snow near the core of that Low. It may be a wet snow, but could it accumulate on gra-s-sy surfaces? If the event falls after daylight hours, I would not be surprised.
Snow lovers gotta love the +AO smh lol heck I’m beginning to feel for the snow lovers. Any analog years that this dismal winter is matching up with? I think most meteorologist by now that was predicting a somewhat snowy December and January have completely ripped up there paper and used it as kindle to start a fire. If any meteorologist winter forecast is on the web (which there are quite a few) and it favors cold and snow in the Ohio Valley you are now encouraged by that meteorologist to not read completely disregard and abort. Thank you
RIP snow
In pa*s*s historical Winters, one that comes to mind is 1960. It was a very mild Winter and even warmer than we have had this Winter with no snow and it was on the dry side. Temperatures in January and February were will into the seventies and in February we had a couple of days where the thermometer read eighty two degrees. Very nice weather and everyone thought that ” Spring has Sprung. ” Nope, wrong when early March came we had two crippling major snowstorms and ended up with around four feet of snow and temperatures bottom out at minus five to ten below. After finding this in my records I concluded that Winter weather is not over until May.