Good Sunday to one and all. Just a few days after flooding rains and severe thunderstorms… mother nature is ready to do it all over again tonight into Monday. This setup will be a tad different from the last one as we have much more instability leading to a higher severe weather threat for many.
Before we get to the severe stuff… a warm front is working northward across the state today and will bring an increase in temps. Readings in the south will spike up well into the 60s with the northern counties slowly warming toward the 60s by the afternoon hours. Track the milder temps here…
Current Temps
This warm front will bring scattered showers and a rumble of thunder to some areas today. Where these showers set up will have something to say about the temps where you live and you can track the drops here…
Warm, moist and unstable air will continue to surge northward into the region tonight and early Monday. This will provide the fuel for the fire that is low pressure and cold front moving our way from the west into Monday. Put all this together and you can get explosive thunderstorm development from the plains into the Ohio Valley.
The action will get started later this afternoon and evening across the plains then work into western Kentucky late this evening into the overnight hours. A line of severe storms will come rolling in from the west and may have widespread damaging winds and a few tornadoes with it. Ahead of this line… we will have to watch for individual thunderstorms developing that can cause some issues of their own.
The severe weather threat will then roll eastward across the entire state into Monday. Here is where the Storm Prediction Center expects severe weather today…
In addition to the severe threat… the potential for another round of heavy rains is growing. We have a saturated ground from the rains of a few days ago, so it won’t take a lot to cause some local high water problems. Both the NAM and GFS are showing heavy rainfall through Monday…
As you can see… it is going to be a busy next few days and the blog will be here tracking the storms and heavy rainfall. More updates will come later today so check back. Have a great Sunday and take care.
Well lets hope that nothing terrible happens but I also hope that I get to see a little bit of action. Keep up the good work Chris!!
Growing severe threat…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
Update to maps in a little bit
RUC showing high helicity values. Hmmm…..
What ever happened to that “arctic outbreak” we were being told about a couple weeks ago? I recall hearing winter is not done and accumulating snows are still likely heading into March. Well, the 10 day forecasts by basically EVERYONE, still shows rain and 50’s. Just saying, it seems like those predictions aren’t coming to fruition. If I’m missing something, let me know. But, it seems any hopes for a big surprise in March is a bust!
Thanks for the update, Chris. Also, Lark and MS. Looks like we may bein for another pounding. I know WKY is in the crosshairs once again. I hope everyone is safe. Will bekeeping an eye on the blog for updates. Thanks again, Chris.
Thank you Chris. Everyone stay safe and have a great Sunday.
As MS eluded to, SPC moved the slight risk area a little further to the east, so it now includes more of central Kentucky.
lol, as I was writing that, the map Chris posted from the SPC refreshed.
Go back and look at the posts from February 16, 17, 18 if you want a good laugh.
Models are for entertainment purposes only until 24 hours from an event.
can handle the flooding where i live but not wind damage, just had new metal roof put on late summer, new siding etc.
bur i have to say the indivudual storms that develop can bew big daddys with big tops 30,000 plus.
went doctor FRYDAY and things look good fore now, tretments actually killing cells. so WOOOOOOOOOOO, but astill a long and scary way to go.
rolo, i am from wayne, wva and u or i do not each other no more than beans from apple butter but your report is living proof that prayers do work and the best part is i do not have to know you , your family or where you live at. just look up and thank the almighty god for the good report. you hang in there good buddy and every thing will be fine. i know this is a weather blog but sometimes, some things are more important than the weather when it comes to commenting.
i will keep praying for you and as always i could use a little prayer.
thank you for your time and may god bless you and your family.
i should have said know each other. sorry
Rolo, I’m glad the report was good. Take care.
Just wanted to say how much it warms my heart to see posts like this that confirm the goodness of people.
i am not defending chris in any way, but the key word or words that he typed was “i dont think” which i think means (imo) in my opinion. that does not mean it will or is going to happen.
the models, obviously were wrong for that time peiod but whos to say that the models are not going to be wrong with what they are spitting out for 2 weeks down the road.
as feederband said, “models are for entertainment purposes only”.
no one and i mean no one can forecast the weather 2 weeks away with better than a 50% accuracy.
heck you can not hardly do it more than 3 days away any more.
Glad to hear everything is going well for you Rolo, you hang in there you have a lot of people pulling for you and praying for you! Besides, we need your food input here later on too, when we are talking bbq ribs, you are talkin turtle lol 🙂 As for the weather, I hope everyone has their weather radios dusted off, new batteries in their flashlights, and their emergency kits ready just incase. My kids laugh at me sometimes, but I would rather be prepared and NOTHING happen, than to not be prepared and something DEVASTATING to happen! God Bless everyone and stay safe! 🙂
Good to hear your doing better rolo hang in there man. Thoughtsa and prayersa to you!!
Wild temp. Ride down here last night we went from 42 at 10 pm to 65 at 9 am!! And now were getting a thunderstom here in knox co.
Some heavy rains in Barbourville (with rumbles of thunder) a little before noon. Seems to have stopped at the moment – or just light enough not to see out the windows. Sky looks like it’s promising more…
Chatter coming out of NWS PAH is of a serious situation setting up down there. Tornadoes and wind damage appear to be likely somewhere in that CWA tonight. For central KY, it’s very iffy still. I’d like to see more sunshine but it isn’t going to happen. We should keep a close eye on upstream though.
We have a thunderstorm rolling through Harlan right now. Thunder, lightning, and some heavy rain.
SPC has now put nearly the entire state under a moderate risk for overnight/tomorrow.
Its so nice to be deep frying a turkey outside in a down pour with thunder and lightening
WOW
SPC has EKY under MDT risk for severe wx tomorrow, haven’t seen that in a while…
this is a dynamically driven event meaning less need for instabilty. the CAPE values were almost 0 with the two recent events Thursday and in Oct.
SPC going very bullish with MDT risk regionwide. I like the idea of a squall line with widespread wind gusts from 40-80 mph and isolated tornadoes. BWG around 3 am cst, Lex 5 am est and into the east for the morning commute.
Good read. There is currently quite a lot of information around this subject on the net and some are most defintely better than others.
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