Good Saturday everyone and welcome to the weekend. We are starting things out on a decent weather note for much of the state with a mix of sun and clouds and warming temps. Consider today the calm between the last storm and the one rolling in on Monday.

This means we will have another fairly active period taking shape that may lead to more heavy rains… the threat for strong or severe storms and gusty winds. Lucky us.

Today will see skies becoming partly sunny with temps warming into the upper 40s and low 50s. That’s not a bad day for the last weekend in February.

Sunday will find low pressure developing across the plains states with a surge of much milder air working into our region from the south. This warm front will slowly lift to the north and will likely touch off a round of showers and maybe a thundershower for some. That should mean a pretty big temp gradient setting up once again from south to north. Most of the shower action will be on the northern side of the warm front and will keep those areas in the upper 40s to near 50 Sunday afternoon while areas south of the front soar well into the 60s.

You can see this quite well on the NAM…



The warmer air will win the battle with all areas seeing temps rising through the rest of the day.

A moist and unstable flow will set in Sunday night and Monday as winds begin to really crank up. Low pressure will be heading from the lower plains into the western Ohio Valley during this time and will drag a cold front toward us. Temps ahead of this front will surge toward 70 in some places. This will fire up a line of showers and thunderstorms from west to east Sunday night and Monday. The models are advertising some pretty big rain totals with this…

GFS Rainfall Sunday-Monday


Given the waterlogged ground we have… that could cause some more local high water issues.

The other aspect of this storm we will have to watch will be the threat for severe thunderstorms.  Odds favor a squall line developing and working eastward across the state Monday. Here is the area being highlighted for possible severe weather…

Sunday
1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook

Monday
1730 UTC Day 3 Outlook

I will have more updates through the weekend so check back. Have a great Saturday and take care.