11:40pm Update
Good late evening gang. A powerful line of thunderstorms continues to work across central and south central Kentucky. Damaging winds are likely with this line as it rolls eastward. Gusts in excess of 60mph will be possible… mainly across the southern half of the state. This line continues to show storm cells capable of rotating so a small tornado threat continues as well.
Torrential rains will continue to lead to the increased threat of flash flooding into the overnight hours. Please stay safe and take care.
8:50pm Update
A TORNADO WATCH is now out for much of south central Kentucky until 2am EST. Here is a look at the counties in the watch and the latest warnings…
In addition to the tornado threat… damging straight line winds will be likely. This line will also produce torrential rains that will lead to flash flooding. More updates ahead… take care.
8:30pm Update
A new tornado watch may be issued shortly for parts of central and south central Kentucky. A line of severe storms is racing across western Ky right now and has a history of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. This will roll eastward over the next several hours and will move into the I-65 corridor between 10 and 11 and near I-75 around midnight.
Torrential rains will also accompany this line and this will likely cause flash flooding. Another band of heavy rain is already in place across central and northern Ky and this may cause some local high water issues before the line moves in.
More updates ahead… take care.
6:45pm Update
A TORNADO WATCH is now out for much of western Kentucky until 10pm CST. Here is a look at the counties included in the watch and the current warnings…
More updates as needed. Tak ecare.
6pm Update
Good evening everyone and thanks for all the reports. Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms continue to roll across the state and the heaviest rains are still to come for many.
The warm front is slowly working to the north and will allow for a surge of warmer and more unstable air to work in from the southwest. This means the threat for thunderstorms will be on the increase for much of the region with some of these storms going severe in the west and south especially. That is something we will be keeping a close eye on this evening as a Tornado Watch is already out to the Kentucky/Tennessee border.
Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ have been rather common across western and southern Kentucky today with the north playing catch up as totals range from .5″ -1″. Many areas will likely pick up another 1″-3″ of rain overnight with the highest totals likely coming across western, central and northern parts of the state. This will enhance the flash flood threat overnight for much of the area with the river flood threat taking center stage into Friday.
In addition to the heavy rains and possible severe storms… the low itself should be a big wind maker with gusts to 40mph or better possible late tonight.
I will have more updates as needed. Keep posting your weather conditions and take care.
1pm Update
Good afternoon everyone. Heavy rains have been focusing across much of southern and western Kentucky so far today with lighter amounts across the north. Totals range from around .25″ in the north to 1″ to 2″ in parts of the south and west. The creeks and streams have been able to handle the amount of water, but that should change later today and tonight as more rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms move in.
The models are targeting areas of western and northern Kentucky for the heaviest rains with the passage of the low pressure tonight. With the low working into the area… it is likely to put parts of western and central Kentucky in the warm sector meaning we will have to watch for some strong or severe thunderstorms. The highest risk is across the west and southwest where the SPC has a moderate risk out.
I will have more updates throughout the day and into the evening. Take care.
Previous Update
Good Thursday everyone. This is going to be a very active weather day across the state as torrential rains will likely bring the threat of flooding to much of the region into early Friday. There is also the chance for strong or severe thunderstorms in our western and southern counties. We have the blog set up for all your tracking needs.
Let’s break down what is likely to happen…
– A warm front draped across the region today will be the focal point for rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms.
– Low pressure to our west will move across the area tonight and provide more heavy rain and storms from west to east.
– Rain amounts should look something like this by early Friday morning…
– Much of the rain will fall in less than 24 hours and will lead to a very high threat of flash flooding.
– Since this will be a widespread heavy rain event… significant river flooding will be possible well into Friday and early this weekend.
– As the low moves across the area tonight into early Friday morning… winds are going to HOWL. Gusts may top 40mph with the passage of the low. With a wet ground… some weak trees may be in trouble.
– The threat for severe weather will mainly be across parts of southern and western Kentucky from later this afternoon into the evening hours.
Here is all you need to track the heavy rain and storms…
Today’s Rainfall
Winds
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IMG border=0 src="https://www.kymesonet.org/wxmaps/brbs.png?nowtime=1292174000" width=378 height=193 useMap=#curmapff>
Current Temps
Severe Thunderstorm Risk
You guys will provide a vital service to the weather community across the state today as we rely on your reports of what is actually happening. Do what you always do and give us the weather conditions from where you live.
I will have updates through the day so be sure to check back. You can also follow my rapid fire updates through twitter. Follow me here Kentuckyweather or check the twitter feed on the right.
Have a great Thursday… stay safe and take care.
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Awesome goodies you have set up for us Chris. Thanks a lot. Everyone be safe the next couple of days, and remember; if you come across water over a roadway… Turn Around Don’t Drown!
Hang on to your hats!
I need a raincoat!!
this is sad. we had two months of a real winter and it looks like its over. the pattern went from cold and snowy to spring pretty much in what seemed like overnight. could be another 10 months for another good snow, how sad is that. ppl complaining of cold and snow and the other 10 months of the year we get none.
Rain please go away
Batten down the hatches!
Rain starting in Frankfort…
NOW REMEMBER WHEN YOU GO OUT IN THE RAIN, DON’T FORGET YOUR TOWEL; OH MAN I DON’T KNOW WHAT’S GOING ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!
pouring here at Clay’s Ferry. everybuddy have your buckets ready. we are going to have to bail water today.
Being from Cynthiana, we don’t like to hear huge rain amounts for the entire state because we get the flow from everything south of us. Be safe everyone over the next few days.
Bought a car with my first sunroof over the winter, so cold I hadn’t used it until the drive home yesterday. Lesson #1 with sunroofs…CLOSE THEM WHEN FINISHED DRIVING! Accidently left mine partially open last night. A moist drive to work today in Berea. Be safe all. 🙂
The Eastern Kentucky diaper trees will be in full bloom this weekend!
Running errands around town today and dropping kids off at school I have learned there are actually people who had no clue it was gonna rain today let alone at risk for flooding….nor did they know about the next storm that may put the icing on the cake. UNBELIEVABLE!!
Do people live in a vaccuum? What is going on in E-Town? Denial?
LOL. 🙂
Wave 3 says NWS scheduled a conference call, and they will have details up in a coupla hours. hmmmm… any speculations??
It sounds like its getting ugly! Can you imagine if this had come down as snow?!?!
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_228s.gif
Just eye candy right now, but THIS is the makings of a Moderate to High Risk from SPC if that were to play out.
My guess is that the axis of heaviest rainfall is going to be shifted north about 30-50 miles, based upon new model data coming in showing the center of low pressure tracking closer to the OH River.
I have a bad feeling this is gonna get ugly really fast. I’m in Lexington and we already have standing water outside of my workplace in the grassy areas (a good couple inches where the gutters are draining) and along the sides of the roadways and parking lots. And this is just the beginning.
The grounds are already moisture filled enough from all the small snows/rains the past few weeks… they just aren’t going to soak this stuff up…
Seems like the big severe weather events keep shifting farther east and happening earlier in the year.
Ack… moderation.
I can see this getting really bad really fast! The grassy areas outside of my work in Lexington already can’t hold the amount of moisture and have standing water on them. The sides of our roadways and parking lots aren’t looking great either…
The ground is just already too moisture filled to soak any of this up!
.80″ as of 10:00am in Mt. Vernon. Has been raining moderately with occasional heavy pockets since the wee hours this morning. We are currently in a pocket of very light drizzle with a stiff southerly wind.
over a inch on east 80 manchester i think bailey needs shift heaviest back south as its train over our area. water starting to rise.
Actually it will probably be a bit more south than north. The 00Z runs were too far north with their axis of precip for this morning.
I agree MJ.
Not doing too much as of now in Paris KY, maybe half an inch or so. Is the bulk of the rain supposed to fall this evening and overnight in CKY?
Just light rain here in Versailles at the moment!
Barely rained here in the last hour & half. Weird.
I wasn’t looking at 00z runs. I was looking at 12z runs, and it sure looked to me like the center of low pressure was going to track just south of the OH River, as opposed to through the heart of KY like we were seeing last night.
About half an inch of rain so far in Paris (Bourbon Co) still raining pretty light though. It is ugly out there. Is most of the rain supposed to fall this evening and overnight? –
Light rain falling currently in Pikeville.
Want some Chang sauce?
That’s the theme to Funky Town!
Not making light of folks near creeks or bridge issues, but I do luv Towelie
Folks, the motherload of rain is due in the next few hours and through the night. Please avoid false sense of security, based on current rain.
Right, the 12Z runs are further north. However, given their performance bias of being too far north already argues that the axis may fall just south of what the 12Z solutions show.
1.5″ of rain in NW Marion County
HPC just updated their flood threat map and took the axis farther north to about where I thought they would..just south of the river.
Yeah I guess so. It’s just intersting that the modeling keeps coming in farther north each time, even the HRRR runs are increasing the severe threat for us. Just something to keep an eye on of course.
I know this isn’t weather related but Does anyone else think the CATS should break out the black jerseys and start taking names the rest of the year. Oh yeah it is Raining here.
thanks Bubba G …. i don’t think people got the joke, but at least you have a good sense of humor!!!
I’m in Washougal WA (just across from Portland OR) and had light snow last night and forcast has now changed from a WWWatch to Advisory…gusting to 29+ for the next 36 hrs…Snow waaaay down on the foothills and into the valley floor. That said-I thought KY was supposed to do a flip back to wintery weather this week….will that happen after the deluge? Thinking ahead and of home….
Finally, our first significant band of rain poised to give Louisville a boost in its rainfall amounts. I live in the SW part of Jefferson county and I’ve received 0.27″ thru 3:25pm.
I’ve posted a few of my favorite piks such as web cams for the Little Rock AR vicinity. Also Memphis traffic cams.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iquHJ_545bw
That is the link to our newest video for those who were wondering!
I am just out of the city limits of Flatwoods, Ky and my rain gauge is showing 1/2 inch at 3:40pm. Has rained pretty steady all day. Temp is 46 deg. I hate a cold rain would much rather have snow! Boy this would have been an awesome SNOW event for us. O well cant change what we get! Stay safe!!
well the forecast up here by wilmington hasnt panned out very well. so far pretty much dry except for some light stuff but the main precip shield looks like its pretty far south of here down along i64 now mainly
Will be updating my blog about every hour.
LIVE storm chase
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
Im new to this but severe weather is my favorite weather! Just seen Dr. Forbes on weather channel and is Tor-con update and he is giving South Ky a 40% chance of a tornado or two, any thoughts?
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KYZ009&warncounty=KYC035&firewxzone=KYZ009&local_place1=Murray+KY&product1=Tornado+Watch
Well, sorry I haven’t had the chance to post until now. Work was very busy today. Didn’t even get to read the blog until a few minutes ago.
Here in Somerset, we have had 2.4 at my house. (Of course, tht is not the ‘official’ reporting station, but it is where I live.)
Had moderate to heavy rains for nost of the day. slacked off just a bit for about an hour, and then started up again, moderate to heavy. Rain is very cold…I know I had to be out in it a lot today. also foud out that my “winter” work shoes have a leaky semmam in one of them…wet foot all day…NOT comfortable…Everyone stay safe and keep up with current conditions! Thanks, Chris, for the timely updates. They are appreciated.
Finally! Thunder in Elizabethtown! 😀
Hey guys, got light rain here in Pikeville.. The Kentucky Weather Chat is open for talking, get in here guys…
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
Raining hard in Radcliff. 44 degrees and we have had over 2 inches of rain here so far with this system. Thunder beginning. Waiting for the storms.
At 8:22 in Nichvegas we had lightning and thunder with heavy rain!
Lightning and thunder in Lex. LMK says potential tornado watch for the Bluegrass.
not to discount current conditions, b/c we definitely have some flood worries. I,m still hoping for one last snow.Any thoughts on the 228 hour gfs?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_228.shtml
nasty hook echo heading into christian county seek shleter now, heading out to local STN activation for command only here in BWG.
was looking at this earlier,definitely showing colder air and potential for snow but at 10 days away i would say its the GFS in Goofy town as usual..
It’s nasty out there tonight. Be careful driving! I think I saw a wreck on the ramp to I-64 at the first Shelbyville exit (32).
I can see a nasty hook echo from my porch!!!!!
We are getting heavy rain, wind, and thunder in Shelbyville.
If so, it should be southern bluegrass only. North of the parkways still looks OK as far as tornadoes.
Well, no thunder here as of yet. in fact, it has stopped raining for the moment. But the wind is really starting to pick up, and it is getting very gusty. The wind chimes out back are really playing a tune right now. Squall line extending into TN looks wicked. Heads up everyone. thanks for the tweets, Chris. Know you are busy right now, and they really help.
1.82″ of rain has fallen in New Albany, IN (5 miles north of Louisville, KY). the creek next to my house has flooded my neighbors yard and the field behind my house. I’m surprised the NWS hasnt even issued a Flash Flood Watch for my county!
I wonder when chris will update? I’m nervous about all those tornadoes! Can someone tell me if that stuff will hit Bath County?
I have been out from my Root Canal all evening.Could someone tell me if the worst is yet to come for East Ky Pike County any thoughts would be appreciated.There is just a bottom that between me and the Big Sandy.
Tornado risk, albeit small, persists in southern and SE KY. Expect the tornado watch to be extended east shortly. Keep an eye out you all. Meso below:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011
AREAS AFFECTED…SRN KY…MIDDLE TN…ERN-CNTRL MS…NRN-CNTRL
AL…NW GA
A SQUALL-LINE WITH SEVERAL LEWP SEGMENTS IS ONGOING JUST TO THE EAST
OF A POWERFUL 60 TO 75 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE IS CREATING
VERY STRONG SPEED SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE SFC WHICH ALONG WITH A
FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE AT 40-45 KT WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR WIND DAMAGE. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN
OZARKS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE SQUALL-LINE
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS THE LINE MOVES INTO SE KY…ERN TN…NE AL
AND FAR NW GA. HOWEVER…INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK AHEAD OF THE LINE
AND THE LINE SHOULD BECOME LESS INTENSE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT BECOMING INCREASINGLY ISOLATED
AFTER 06Z.
..BROYLES.. 02/25/2011
Thanks Ryan.I just saw Chris’s Tweet on the right side where an Amish Family was swept away where is Graves County Ky?
60 mph gust in bowling green tonight at wku met lab finally put some of that old equipment to use.
See link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Map_of_Kentucky_highlighting_Graves_County.svg
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