Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. We have a very windy period ahead of us as the pattern across North America continues to run in overdrive. The winds will blow in a much more active period over the next few weeks.
Today will feature plenty of sunshine with temps heading into the upper 50s and low 60s for many. The west will run several degrees warmer than the rest of us. The winds will be the main player as gusts really crank up this afternoon into Sunday. Gusts may hit 40mph at times this weekend.
Winds
If you have been with me through the years, you know how I love seeing a lot of wind in Fall. This is usually a sign of a very active winter pattern ahead. 
Clouds will roll in later tonight and Sunday and a few showers may move into parts of the state before the day is over. The GFS shows some of these by Sunday afternoon…
These showers break out as warmer air moves in from the southwest. Temps into the 60s will be likely from Sunday through Monday and possibly Tuesday. The models continue to key in on a storm that should roll from southwest to northeast across the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. The trend is for a stronger system and this would bring down colder air behind it for the middle and end of the week. The GFS…
Any storm that deepens is going to be able to tap the vast reservoir of cold air just to our north in Canada. The models simply are not designed to be able to pinpoint such storms more than 3 or 4 days out right now. The seasonal change and a tremendous temperature gradient across North America is a bad sign for model worshippers as the models are going to be flipping and flopping a lot in the coming weeks.
One thing I am confident of is our region being in an active storm track over the next few weeks. Use the GFS precipitation forecast as a guide to show this…
It is this active pattern that leads to a rock and roll start to winter for much of the country. This will kick in later this month and ramp up into December. I can’t tell you exactly when that starts for us.
Think of this… today is November 12th and we’ve already had 4 days where snow has been reported somewhere across the state. That’s a little perspective for ya!
Have a great Saturday and check back for updates. Take care.
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29 degrees and a frost that looks like snow in Southern Pike County:)
Thanks, Chris. Looks like a windy day for football. The pattern certainly does look like a roller coaster for sure! My only complaint is that with the temps yo yoing like they are, who knows how to dress? 😉
Looking forward, as always to the next post. Have a great Saturday, everyone.
good saturday morning and weekend from on the hill here in wayne, wva at 9:30 am the temp is a pleasant 49 degrees and it is already warmer today than it got to all of friday. chris was speaking of all the models and when winter was supposed to start, imo, i hope the snow starts flying around thanks giving but i think it will be closer to the 1st to 10th of dec. before it actually a happens. joe bastardi is definitely in your camp, mr. bailey cause he thinks we will have another block buster storm around thanksgiving for the eastern half of the nation that could seriously interrupt travel for millions of people. as always time will tell.
I need to be fired.
if my last name was barnhart I’d also need to be fired.
Toney…where can I find more on Joe Bastardi? I know he left AccuWeather a while ago and joined another agency. I always enjoy his thoughts!
he is at weatherbell.com there is a monthly subscription rate of 16.99 a month, no trial period but it is well worth it considering how much joe knows about the weather. also joe d’angelo is with him. although i do not know that much about mr. d’angelo. i hope this helps you.
i should have said joseph d’aleo, not joe d’angelo, sorry.