Good Friday everyone and thanks for making us one of your online weather stops. We also say a big thank you to all the Veterans out there as we honor their service to this country. Several spots got in on some snow action Thursday into last night. It wasn’t much to write home about, but was a reminder that winter is on the way. Something else that’s on the way is a very active weather pattern and we have the breakdown for you.
Our Veterans Day is a chilly one as highs stay in the 40s for the eastern half of the state as the west warms toward the low and mid 50s. Winds will continue to be on the gusty side.
Current Temps
Those winds are really going to crank up this weekend as some milder air works back in from the southwest. Gusts of 25-30mph will be possible at times. Saturday looks to be a good one with some clouds on the increase and temps in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Those clouds will eventually spit out some showers for Sunday as we make the transition into a much wetter setup. This will carry us through the first half of next week as a couple of systems combine to bring some hefty rains our way. That’s something we will have to keep an eye on over the next few days. The models are having a tough time handling everything that’s going on.
That holds true for the middle and end of next week. It’s a pattern that should try to sneak some cold air back in here.
I have been talking a lot lately about the above normal snow cover across the northern hemisphere. That is about to really jump off the charts as Canada goes into a deep freeze and puts down a ton of snow. Check out the totals for the next 5 days:
That is a lot of snow falling over the next several days and will only add to the snow surplus. This is an important factor in making sure plenty of VERY cold air is available as we head into the winter months. As I said, Canada is heading into a deep freeze over the next week and that air will slowly push southward into the states over the next few weeks and into December. Does it come in a step down process or all at once? That is yet to be determined.
The players are on the field for a wild winter for much of the country. The weather has been nothing short of extreme for the past few years and shows no signs of letting up. Speaking of extreme… one of the tornadoes that ripped through Oklahoma earlier this week has been rated an EF-4. That’s the first November EF-4 for the sooner state since records started in 1950.
Want more extreme?
That video is from the arctic hurricane that blasted parts of Alaska this week. It was one of the strongest storms to ever hit the state.
Just add it to the list of 2011 extreme weather events!
I will update things as needed. Have a great Friday and take care.
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I sure hope Ky. gets on the maps this winter for an EXTREME event..as long as its snow and not the “I” word…ugh!!..an artic hurricane in ky would be awesome..lol well minus all the wind…lol…I missed out on all the snow yesterday…not even 1 flake here in my area…:(…..hmmmm…2 snow events for northeast ky so far ..i hope that is NOT A TREND…lol…
long range euro continues the overall warm pattern for the next month with a mean ridge in the southeast and trough in the west into mid Dec, The MJO may allow some brief chill to start Dec as it enters phase 2. However Overall there no signs the southeast ridge breaks that much and we continue warm overall. It may cool down for a day or two at a time but overall no reason to think at this time for a major pattern shift to cold. right now LEX is near normal for the month I suspect this will be back to a few degrees above normal in about 10 days.
That’s very depressing news indeed.
I like winter weather as much as the next guy, but this pattern is great as well. Many mild days and clear, cool nights. I wouldn’t mind seeing this continue through Mid-December. This beats a cold rain and missing a monster snow storm by 100 or 200 miles any day of the week.
Sounds pretty much like what I’ve been thinking for a while now. So I’d have to basically agree with you. Except, I don’t put much faith in the Euro, and I also think that toward mid-December the mean jet will dive farther south and we’ll get blasted, similar to last year. But yeah…for now there is no reason to look for Winter, cause it ain’t here.
Long range models are a guess, any weather forecaster will tell you more than 10 days out is unreliable info. Chris is the man on this blog when it comes to winter forecasting. Can’t wait until he says I told you so in a few weeks 🙂
Who’s concerned with the long range models anyways…Euro basically sucks lately beyond five days IMO…Don’t understand why people think we should get Winter like cold in November or even the first half of December…Mild days and cool nights plus a few cold fronts already coming through is a step toward winter..With how cold and snow packed Canada is going to get over the next month is a good sign of things to come…Have your long Johns handy folks,you’re gonna need them in about 3 to four weeks…
November 11, 2011: The day Winter died. RIP Winter.
i do not mean to disagree with any one and i am not any expert by any means but chris did go on record about 4 or 5 days ago and said this was not the year to start using teleconnections and long range models and indicies. the atmosphere was in super charge mode and just about any thing that does develop over the coming months is going to go extreme. besides, winter does not start until the 21st of dec. and chris is not looking for it to begin him self until the end of the month into early dec.
I worry about the superchrged atmosphere and extreme weather back fire on us here in Kentucky. Giving us one of the nicest and mildest winters in a long time instead of cold and snowy.
Jake
Middle of December is when winter should get going. We don’t often get much before then though last year and 2002 were exceptions. better to have this warm set-up now then say Jan. Overall with my winter forecast ( just updated on the link) update I did go with slighlty below average snowfall as the pattern change has me worried more storms will go north. Here is more on the MJO for those wondering. I’ll try to explain terms a little better. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden%E2%80%93Julian_oscillation
of course remember week 3 and 4 of the EC is not the gospel like anything else in this field. All can change quick.
Bottom line is that there is and will be some big-time stuff happening in the Northern Hemisphere, it’s just not in Kentucky yet. Be patient and it will come.
I love reading the weather and have to say that Chris and his weather blog are many time more on target than other sources I have read. Of course nobody is perfect and predicting the weather can be a very tough job I am sure.
One thing I did notice is that Chris has been talking about the above normal snow cover for the northern hemisphere and I have to think he was talking Canada and such. And I remember reading something about really cold air in Canada. Then today I read on the Weather channel an article about the lack of snow and cold air in Canada and Alaska so I have to wonder what the deal is.