Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for making the blog one of your weather stops. A major rainfall event is likely across the entire state over the next few days and this will lead to an increasing threat for flash flooding and even river flooding.
We have been setting the table with this event for a while now and the parameters appear to be in place for a lot of water to fall from the sky in a short period of time. Low pressure will be developing later today in the plains states and will roll northeastward toward the lower Ohio Valley later Thursday into early Friday. This happens as warm, moist air surges northward into the region and interacts with a warm front draped across the area. This will be the initial focusing mechanism for a wave of rain and thunderstorms to form late tonight into early Thursday.
Additional waves of rain and storms will crank up along this boundary into Thursday night. It is by this time we get an additional surge in the action from the low itself. Here is a visual on this setup…
This will lead to widespread heavy rains from Arkansas and Tennessee northward throughout the entire state. Here is a look at what i’m currently expecting…
The impressive part about the rain is most of it will fall in less than a 24 hour period. I would anticipate flash flood watches coming soon from the local NWS offices that service our region.
On a brighter note… the greatest threat for severe weather may stay just to our south and southwest. It is still close enough to keep an eye on, however.
After a lull in the action Saturday… watch out. Another, more powerful, storm will move into this region later Sunday into Monday with another round of heavy rainfall and a possible higher threat for severe thunderstorms. Here is the GFS…
Sunday Afternoon
Sunday Night
Between the late week storm and the one coming late weekend into early next week… that is a whole lot of rain that can fall across our entire region. That may lead to local flash flooding and even river flooding and anyone living in a flood prone area should stay alert to the high water potential over the next several days.
As usual… the blog will update you every step of the way so check back for updates. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
Select Page
Thank you Chris!! I’ll be watching!! I’m feeling the same kind excitement with this storm as I do when we talk snow!
Thanks Chris. I must say that I will probably enjoy a flash or two lightening! Has anyone figured out what causes lightening?
yeah this is scary and check out the rain coming for Monday to the area http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_GFS_SFC_ACCUMPRECIP_126HR.gif
this is some scary stuff please folks prepare now to possibly move to higher ground. Also check out http://www.spotterchat.org you can also use this with trillian astra since this is a jabber client. We will be watching this severe weather closely and have live chaser feeds out during these storms and updates in the chat. Please come in and join the convo.
As I was posting info on my blog, the Flash Flood Watch did go up for a large chunk of Kentucky. Up to 5″ possible for some.
Good night all (or morning). I’m going to bed.
thanks Chris. i will be keeping my eye on this one.
Thanks Chris. This situation looks to be a little scary. Hope everyone who lives in a flood prone area keeps an eye on the weather for the next several days.
What type of temps are we looking at the rest of this week and into next week?
Thanks for the update, and heads up, Chris. I know we need rain, but I am not looking forward to getting it all at once like this. Oh well. You can bet that I will keep an eye on the blog for your updates, and keep you informed on rain amounts we get.
Beautiful, cold morning here this morning. 25 degrees, bug frost, and clear skies. (But the sky DID have a red look when the sun was coming up this morning) So look out!
thanks again, Chris.
My thoughts haven’t changed. EURO is off it’s rocker as usual. Severe threat is very low for us, but flooding threat is still increasing. I’d keep an eye on this one if you live near a stream or river. And remember… turn around, don’t drown.
Test
Forecasted high temps have pretty much been a bust in Feb. for us here in Southern KY. As always TWC has been the highest and even they have forecasted temps lower than what has actually occured. I think winter is over for the most part. Cold air forecasts continue to get pushed back on a weekly basis, which is basically pushing us up until March for any threat of weather cold enough to snow.
I’m looking at average to above average temps for the majority of days in the near future. A few days may have daytime highs down in the 40’s, but for the most part mid 50’s and above. Can’t say I’m not happy with that.
It’s workin’. 😉
well I look over things and folks in SE KY better get ready for mudslides closed roads and some areas loosing there trailers/homes. very serious sutiution coming and I for one and getting ready. stocking up some food because after tomm nite friday the late sunday monday and 1 -3 inches coming. very concerned.
rolo luvs all u and be safe.
I live in east ky and with all this rain coming in I’m concerned with flooding potential. I’ve been fortunate to not have been flooded in the past 2 floods in our area the last couple of years.
I live in Lex but my elderly parents live in Eastern Kentucky beside the Kentucky River. I hope they don’t get flooded in. I’m going to call and tell them to make sure they are stocked up on their medicine and food just in case.
Due to the expected slow movement of the front, I’m beginning to think some in a narrow band could get 5-6″ if t’storms occur. Hard to pinpoint exactly where, but I say E’town is somwhere in the crosshairs.
This weekend is nearly the 14th anniversary of the floods that devastated parts of Cynthiana and Falmouth. Hope we don’t see a repeat of that event.
HUSH your MOUTH!!!!
lol!
Anybody know if E-Town floods easy? I’ve only been here 7 months, so I have no clue what goes on around here.
I do live on a hill though, but worried about going into downtown E-Town to pick the kids up from school.
Has anyone ever had a “rain day” from school? 😉
Ya’ll keep saying stuff like “E-Town is in the crosshairs” and my kids WILL HAVE ONE. 🙂
It may not get that bad…but some areas are going to see persistent bands of moderate to heavy rain over an extended period of time. Maybe a dry slot will work thru before it gets too bad.
[url= viagra online[/url] Psychedelic reach-me-down to procure something championing debilitation
Hello, mate! I am utterly accede to this way of thinking and all of joined.
Good post! thank you
Вода, вода, вода автор учись писать информативно, А то много букв мало толку.
Your site isinteresting, putting the site to your bookmarks.
Your site isinteresting, putting the site to your bookmarks.
Hi!
There are a couple of proposals for cooperation in the field of alternative energy.
You are interested in solar panels?
All the fun is done
Wonderful post! I like your blog, and am a regular follower. I will be back monday!
Fun!
Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on this topic.
Excellent read, I just passed this onto a colleague who was doing a little research on this topic.