Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon everyone. Your friendly weather dude is dropping by for a quick update on a raw and chilly late February day. Some areas have been seeing a little rain and snow action with most of the flakes taking place in the far north.

We have a pretty good temp gradient setting up with the far north in the low 30s and the southern counties well into the 40s. Check it out…

Current Temps

Looking ahead to the end of the week storm… all signs continue to point toward a heavy rain and possible severe weather maker for the state Thursday into early Friday. I posted a rainfall forecast earlier and that appears to be in good shape…

The latest GFS model took a slight southward jog allowing for a colder situation across the northern half of the state…

Friday Morning

Snowfall Forecast

That is a good head fake from the model and I am not buying into it. The low should track just to our north allowing for heavy rain and possible severe storms around here.

Not only will we have to watch this storm… but the one that will follow it early next week. That one may also deliver heavy rains and severe weather to our region. Back to back heavy rain producing storms can cause some issues and we will be watching for it.

I will update as needed… take care.

26 Comments

patty on February 22, 2011 at 6:34 pm

Thank you Chris!!

Coffeelady on February 22, 2011 at 6:45 pm

Thanks, Chris. This would be a good time to make sure that your weather radio is good, with batteries changed and prepped in case of power outages with severe weather. Just a reminder…

Faith on February 22, 2011 at 8:17 pm

Now I am wishing I had bought those rain boots I looked at the other day, lol.

BengalFan on February 22, 2011 at 9:10 pm

What happen to snow storm early march????

MikeM on February 22, 2011 at 9:15 pm

That was my question. Ole man winter was supposed to make one more return.

CalendarMan on February 22, 2011 at 9:37 pm

It’s still February.

tornadolarkin on February 22, 2011 at 9:48 pm

Have an update over on my blog on what I think will occur with the heavy rainfall threat late week.

MS on February 22, 2011 at 10:40 pm

After reviewing some data this afternoon, I’m focusing more on the potential for flooding rains this week. This will occur along and just north of the warm front, which looks to include Louisville. I expect Bowling Green to be in the warm sector. If timing is right, severe chances could be going up there.

Russell on February 22, 2011 at 10:58 pm

Would any of you guys be intrested in a weather chatroom that is open 24/7, not just during big storms. Of course I would expect some of the chat to be about things other than weather, becuase its hard to talk about nothing but weather sometimes. I should mention the chat would be largely louisville based, but anyone would be welcome. Anyone who would be intrested please reply to this post and we can go from there.

Lincoln on February 22, 2011 at 11:15 pm

While I am interested, we have to realize that to keep it busy the chat has to be huge..The reason why it is just big storms, is because when it is sunny outside not many people are on their computers worrying about the weather.. That is why the chat dies out! Lol 😉 But, if you we can come up with a way to make it work, I am all for it!!

tornadolarkin on February 23, 2011 at 12:22 am

As I have now looked at the latest NAM and SREF run, I now have an updated look on storm totals over on my blog.

Russell on February 23, 2011 at 12:23 am

The big problem I think will happen is there are alot more winter weather lovers that want to talk than there are severe weather lovers. Chat rooms seem to die out, as you say, during the spring and summer, during inactive periods in the weather. My intentions would be to get as many people as I could. I already have 7 people, including me, and I know that aint many. Anyone intrested in the room, I have set up a email just for the chatroom, its chatzyroom@comcast.net. You have to get an invite from me before you can join in. Send me an email and then you will get your invite and the link to the room. And by the way, chris, I hope you dont mind me using your blog to get (potential) chat room members.

Rachel on February 23, 2011 at 1:10 am

Ugh… rain, rain go away. If this was a snow storm it would totally find some way to split in half or dive or spring or flip or perform some crazy arsed rotation and avoid us altogether. But alas… this one will make sure to hit us directly :/

WXman on February 23, 2011 at 1:32 am

Going to update the blog tomorrow, but in a nutshell, the GFS and NAM are still not in lock-step with the track of this low Thursday, and that is crucial to our chances of severe weather because it’s going to track directly toward us. A track more like the NAM would have a better chance at putting down some wind damage here. I’m not 100% sold on this yet. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the new SPC outlooks tomorrow trim back the Slight Risk area.

WXman on February 23, 2011 at 1:36 am

I think it’s important to note that the last time the models were spitting out 3-5″ of rainfall like this, we ended up with the Great Flood of May 2010. In other words, the models were underestimating drastically. It sometimes happens. It’s worth being prepared just in case.

tornadolarkin on February 23, 2011 at 2:06 am

Agreed. I definently could see several areas with 3-5″ amounts though.

E-TownKY on February 23, 2011 at 2:55 am

Well.

Good thing I live on a big hill is all I can say. 😉

bobt on February 23, 2011 at 3:40 am

Believe it or not Accuweather and TWC is doing a good job on day time temps for the last couple of weeks. Most locals have been going too low for Southern KY. Actually got above 50 here in Knox today. I’m not complaining. lol Hope it stays warm until spring because big daddy is not going to come.

Jack on February 23, 2011 at 3:42 am

I am interested. It may get a little dull at times but I think this could be a great outlet for weather folks!Think of the fun this will be.

JavaJoe on February 23, 2011 at 3:44 am

So, between this comment and your reply to tornadolarkin above, are you saying the wind/severe threat may be decreasing, but that you are concerned that rain threat may be understated?

Thanks

WXman on February 23, 2011 at 2:24 pm

Yes, severe weather never looked like a big certainty to me anyway. But the flooding threat is increasing.

E Cigarette on April 27, 2011 at 3:18 pm

Trees, for professional paper

ljubov on April 29, 2011 at 5:16 pm

Site perspective, placing the site to your favorites.

goldfishka on May 7, 2011 at 8:54 pm

Such positions only added popularity.

liska on May 28, 2011 at 6:30 am

Develops the theme further.

sexy on June 23, 2011 at 10:17 pm

Theme your pretty complicated for a beginner.

patty on February 22, 2011 at 6:34 pm
Thank you Chris!!
Coffeelady on February 22, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Thanks, Chris. This would be a good time to make sure that your weather radio is good, with batteries changed and prepped in case of power outages with severe weather. Just a reminder…
Faith on February 22, 2011 at 8:17 pm
Now I am wishing I had bought those rain boots I looked at the other day, lol.
BengalFan on February 22, 2011 at 9:10 pm
What happen to snow storm early march????
MikeM on February 22, 2011 at 9:15 pm
That was my question. Ole man winter was supposed to make one more return.
CalendarMan on February 22, 2011 at 9:37 pm
It’s still February.
tornadolarkin on February 22, 2011 at 9:48 pm
Have an update over on my blog on what I think will occur with the heavy rainfall threat late week.
MS on February 22, 2011 at 10:40 pm
After reviewing some data this afternoon, I’m focusing more on the potential for flooding rains this week. This will occur along and just north of the warm front, which looks to include Louisville. I expect Bowling Green to be in the warm sector. If timing is right, severe chances could be going up there.
Russell on February 22, 2011 at 10:58 pm
Would any of you guys be intrested in a weather chatroom that is open 24/7, not just during big storms. Of course I would expect some of the chat to be about things other than weather, becuase its hard to talk about nothing but weather sometimes. I should mention the chat would be largely louisville based, but anyone would be welcome. Anyone who would be intrested please reply to this post and we can go from there.
Lincoln on February 22, 2011 at 11:15 pm
While I am interested, we have to realize that to keep it busy the chat has to be huge..The reason why it is just big storms, is because when it is sunny outside not many people are on their computers worrying about the weather.. That is why the chat dies out! Lol 😉 But, if you we can come up with a way to make it work, I am all for it!!
tornadolarkin on February 23, 2011 at 12:22 am
As I have now looked at the latest NAM and SREF run, I now have an updated look on storm totals over on my blog.
Russell on February 23, 2011 at 12:23 am
The big problem I think will happen is there are alot more winter weather lovers that want to talk than there are severe weather lovers. Chat rooms seem to die out, as you say, during the spring and summer, during inactive periods in the weather. My intentions would be to get as many people as I could. I already have 7 people, including me, and I know that aint many. Anyone intrested in the room, I have set up a email just for the chatroom, its chatzyroom@comcast.net. You have to get an invite from me before you can join in. Send me an email and then you will get your invite and the link to the room. And by the way, chris, I hope you dont mind me using your blog to get (potential) chat room members.
Rachel on February 23, 2011 at 1:10 am
Ugh… rain, rain go away. If this was a snow storm it would totally find some way to split in half or dive or spring or flip or perform some crazy arsed rotation and avoid us altogether. But alas… this one will make sure to hit us directly :/
WXman on February 23, 2011 at 1:32 am
Going to update the blog tomorrow, but in a nutshell, the GFS and NAM are still not in lock-step with the track of this low Thursday, and that is crucial to our chances of severe weather because it’s going to track directly toward us. A track more like the NAM would have a better chance at putting down some wind damage here. I’m not 100% sold on this yet. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the new SPC outlooks tomorrow trim back the Slight Risk area.
WXman on February 23, 2011 at 1:36 am
I think it’s important to note that the last time the models were spitting out 3-5″ of rainfall like this, we ended up with the Great Flood of May 2010. In other words, the models were underestimating drastically. It sometimes happens. It’s worth being prepared just in case.
tornadolarkin on February 23, 2011 at 2:06 am
Agreed. I definently could see several areas with 3-5″ amounts though.
E-TownKY on February 23, 2011 at 2:55 am
Well.
Good thing I live on a big hill is all I can say. 😉
bobt on February 23, 2011 at 3:40 am
Believe it or not Accuweather and TWC is doing a good job on day time temps for the last couple of weeks. Most locals have been going too low for Southern KY. Actually got above 50 here in Knox today. I’m not complaining. lol Hope it stays warm until spring because big daddy is not going to come.
Jack on February 23, 2011 at 3:42 am
I am interested. It may get a little dull at times but I think this could be a great outlet for weather folks!Think of the fun this will be.
JavaJoe on February 23, 2011 at 3:44 am
So, between this comment and your reply to tornadolarkin above, are you saying the wind/severe threat may be decreasing, but that you are concerned that rain threat may be understated?
Thanks
WXman on February 23, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Yes, severe weather never looked like a big certainty to me anyway. But the flooding threat is increasing.
E Cigarette on April 27, 2011 at 3:18 pm
Trees, for professional paper
ljubov on April 29, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Site perspective, placing the site to your favorites.
goldfishka on May 7, 2011 at 8:54 pm
Such positions only added popularity.
liska on May 28, 2011 at 6:30 am
Develops the theme further.
sexy on June 23, 2011 at 10:17 pm
Theme your pretty complicated for a beginner.

26 Comments

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