Good Tuesday to one and all. Mother nature is reminding us it’s still winter as we have a blustery Tuesday that may feature a few snowflakes for some. While the winter feel is with us today… it’s a series of spring like storms that will bring a lot of rain and thunderstorms to our region late this week into early next week. That is going to be the main focus of the blog in the coming days.

In the short term… temps will struggle into the upper 30s and low 40s for highs under a mostly cloudy sky today. A weak disturbance is crossing the area and may touch off a rain or snow shower… especially north and east. You can follow along here…



Wednesday looks to be the nicest day of the week as readings warm into the low 50s under partly sunny skies. Make that the day to go out and enjoy as a big storm will be rolling into town on Thursday leading to widespread rain and thunderstorms.

Low pressure will fire up across the southern plains and ride into the western Ohio Valley later Thursday into early Friday. This will pump warm, moist and unstable air in here with waves of rain and storms likely. This setup can put down quite a bit of rain that can lead to high water concerns for some areas. Take a look at the rain totals I am expecting for Thursday and Friday…



Much of that will fall in a 24 hour period and that much rain can lead to some localized flooding problems.

In addition to the heavy rains… the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms will be with us as well. The highest change for severe storms will be across southern and western Kentucky and points south and west from there. That doesn’t mean the rest of the state won’t see severe weather… I’m just pointing out the area that has the best chance.

The atmosphere wants to run in “supercharged” mode for a while and this should lead to another big storm early next week. This is basically going right to the active pattern we have been yapping about for a while and the storm next week may also have heavy rains and severe weather. Here it is on the GFS…



That may end up being a much more wound up storm cutting into the Great Lakes… but you get the idea.

Take a look at the rainfall forecast from the GFS from Thursday through Tuesday…



That is spitting out better than 6″ of rain for much of the region and is certainly something we should be paying attention to as it would produce some high water.

This pattern is coming about as winter tries to take control of the country once again. This time around… we have the increasing seasonal warmth showing up across the southern states. Put these two together and you can get a lot of action where they meet to slug it out and that is right over the Ohio Valley. I expect winter to gradually gain the upper hand into early March and that should give us another accumulating snow or two before winter calls it a season.

I will update this active pattern as needed so check back. Have a great Tuesday and take care.