Good Monday afternoon gang. Before we get into the weather part of the program… the blog was featured in today’s Lexington Herald Leader. Here is the link if you want to check out what they had to say about us… Lexington Herald Blog Article  .

Our Monday is featuring a very spring like weather day across the state. Temps are well into the 60s in many areas as winds crank up to 30mph or better at times. A cold front will work in overnight and will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms from north to south. The heaviest rains will be along and north of Interstate 64 and you can track the action here…
 


Colder air moves in for Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s with a rain or snow shower.

All eyes are beginning to turn toward a big storm on tap for Thursday and Friday. This storm will have a big temp contrast to work with and will bring the potential for flooding rains and severe storms with it. Take a look at this bad boy on the GFS forecast model…



The rain amounts coming from the models of late is cause for concern and this run of the GFS is going crazy…



While the model is likely having some convective feedback issues… a general 1″-3″ of rain appears likely with local amounts to 4″ possible.

The severe weather aspect of this storm is something many folks may have to deal with as well. Here is the area the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting for severe storms Thursday…

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook Graphics Issued on Feb 21, 2011

From their discussion…

   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON THU/D4 FROM
   ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR…SRN MO…NRN MS…CNTRL AND
   WRN KY AND TN…

   STRONG FORCINGWITH THE UPPER TROUGH…COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
   PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE…INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS
   IN ADDITION TO HAIL.

The long range pattern into the first few weeks of March continues to look very wintry. As we said with our last update… buckle up for the ride.

Have a great rest of your Monday and take care.