Good Saturday, everyone. Tropical moisture continues to funnel into the region, bringing the potential for heavy rains for parts of Kentucky. This is a setup that takes us through the weekend and may even spawn some local high water issues. Speaking of the tropics, our twin tropical threat continues to show up for the Gulf of Mexico, but the setup continues to shift a bit.
Let me start with what’s happening out there on your Saturday. It’s another fairly pleasant temperature day overall, but the humidity is most certainly up. As an upper low lifts from southwest to northeast into Kentucky, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop. Once again, it’s not raining all day and not everyone will see the heaviest rains. Pockets of tropical downpours will be noted and could lead to flash flood issues for some.
Here are your radars to track the action…
The Sunday setup is very similar to today.
The action becomes a little more scattered by the time we hit Monday, but the flow is still rather tropical. This is where the overall pattern totally hinges upon what happens with our two systems in the Gulf of Mexico.
I opined yesterday how these storms would struggle with land masses early on and how you would see the track of both shift to the west. Guess what’s happening? Both are having development issues out of the gate because of the interaction with land masses AND the track forecasts are going west.
Laura has a good shot at whiffing on Florida and the track may bend all the way toward the Mouth of the Mississippi or a bit farther west. Here’s the current thinking from the National Hurricane Center…
Tropical Storm Marco is also bending farther west in terms of the track…
With two systems in the Gulf, it may prove difficult for us to not get some tropical rains from one of these. The models continue to hint at this, though they differ on timing and track…
GFS
CANADIAN
I will throw you another update later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris, This morning I notice on the radar that the heaviest rains are to the southwest of Taylor county and are circulating from east to west and very slowly drifting northeast. We may miss the rains or not. If we miss we are still good on soil moisture.
I agree it’s a puzzle as to what may take place in the Gulf of Mexico, and whether the Ohio Valley will receive any rain late next week ? I speculate that the trough currently in the western Gulf will determine the path, if any of this energy develops over the very warm waters of the Gulf ?
Now in the Arctic Region I notice this morning that the entire continent of Greenland is under a ridge of high pressure which would explain the current warming trend there. The Arctic is ever changing it’s temperatures as we enter Autumn.