Good afternoon, folks. It’s an absolutely picture perfect fall day in the bluegrass state and this awesome weather will continue through much of next week. Temps were chilly this morning and are likely to be a few degrees colder Sunday morning. Overall, this is quite the run of overnight lows in the 40s and it we could make it 5 or 6 straight days for some.
Let’s begin with the cold this morning because it was impressive. My tweets tell the story…
We have our first upper 30s of the season! While much of the state made it into the low 40s this morning, Cynthiana hit 38 degrees. Here are the top 10 coldest temps from the Kentucky Mesonet. #kywx pic.twitter.com/ST7s1V1Xww
— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) September 19, 2020
Lexington hit 42 degrees this morning with a wind chill of 38. The 42 degree low is the coldest this early in September since 41 on this same day in 2012. It’s also the 2nd earliest in 20 years and the 7th earliest in the last 50 years. #kywx
— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) September 19, 2020
The model forecasts, just like they have been for a while now, were too warm compared to reality this morning. With low humidity and clear skies tonight, we are likely to see the same thing happen. Upper 30s to low 40s will show up in many areas once again, especially in the valleys. Winds will still be up, so that should keep the frost threat pretty low.
Sunday will feature highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. This awesome weather takes us through the middle of next week, at least. Lows in the 40s and highs from the upper 60s to middle 70s look common as we keep the low humidity and dry skies.
This is a great run of dry weather as we enter the heart of our driest part of the year. The good news is our soil moisture is running way ahead of normal right now…
Told y’all this was the polar opposite of September 2019. 🙂
Once into the middle of next week, the pattern is likely going to be determined by what happens with Beta down in the Gulf of Mexico. This storm is currently fighting off a little shear…
This is forecast to become a hurricane and heard toward Texas before it hugs the coast all the way into Louisiana. Hurricane Warnings are out for much of this region. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center…
What happens to this system remains to be seen and there isn’t a ton of model agreement or continuity from run to run. The pattern will throw several deepening troughs into the region late next week into the following week. Can one of these pick up the remnants? Does this system just meander until it gives up? We shall see.
The EURO has been performing much better of late, but still cannot figure out surface temps to save its life. Here’s how the model handles it all…
The Canadian has a similar look in the overall scheme of things…
The GFS is the GFS…
The troughs showing up at the end of the month will have to be watched to see if we can get an early season frost threat behind one of them.
Enjoy the day and take care.
