Good Friday everyone and happy weekend. What a run of spring weather we have been seeing over the past several days. Today should feature more mild temps as our overall weather pattern begins to slowly switch back toward one that dominated the country over the past few months… wintry.
Our short term weather will feature a front crossing the state late today. Winds will be rather gusty again as temps warm into the lower 60s under a mix of sun and clouds. This is another moisture starved system and will only be able to produce a light shower or a few sprinkles. Follow the wimpy showers here…
Cooler air will filter in from the west later tonight with temps heading toward freezing or a bit below. Saturday will see skies become partly sunny with temps generally in the upper 40s to low 50s.
The end of the weekend will feature low pressure racing across the northern Ohio Valley. Milder air will be trying to fight into the region ahead of this low and this may touch off some clouds or a shower or two. Winds look to become very gusty as the low zooms by and drags a front southward toward the area.
A second low develops along the tail end of this front and should work eastward across the lower Ohio Valley Monday. Rain will be located along and south of the path of the low with snow and ice to the north. As of now… it looks like this low comes right on top of us with rain that ends as some light snow Monday night and Tuesday morning.
I like what the GFS Ensembles are doing…
A track like that would likely take the heaviest snows more toward Columbus and Pittsburgh with some light stuff around here as the cold air arrives. We will watch the forecast track of this system over the weekend. I just want some rain from this system as we are already starting off the year below normal in the moisture department.
Oh… that low should be another wind maker for us. Noticing a pattern?
Speaking of pattern… it is undergoing changes right now that will lead to a strong winter comeback for the end of the month into early March. We have been highlighting this period for winter’s return for a while now and the forecast models are catching on. There is a ton of cold air building up in Canada and this will unload on the northern and western parts of the country next week before spreading out and taking control of most of the country. Check out the GFS Ensembles temp departure map…
You can see our temps bump up for a few days for the end of next week before the cold takes control. Once it gets in… it is likely to hang around for a while. It’s not just the cold potential catching my eye as we should also be seeing storm systems ramping up during the same time. This is likely to lead to more winter storms for the central and eastern parts of the country into early March.
I will update things as needed so be sure to check back. Have a great Friday and take care.
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Thanks so much Chris! These past few days have been absolutely glorious and I so hate to see them end! As a lifelong Kentuckian, I have seen some of the worst snows of the winter occur in March, so mention of bad weather returning doesn’t surprise me in the least. I just hope that it doesn’t last long and that spring is just around the corner! Leaving the door open and the windows being open have been good for my soul! 🙂 Hope everyone has enjoyed this weather! And Chris, I hope it has given you a chance to get caught up on your rest, too!! Take good care everyone! Don’t blow away! LOL!
This should make for some very interesting weather watching times over the next few weeks.
Chris…I am now doing my student teaching and am teaching a 2nd grade weather unit for the next two weeks and probably even continuing after that as well. I am definately showing the blog to my students during one of the lessons. I think they are going to love it!
A mix of U2 to start off the gloomy morning. Where did all the sun go?! lol
Funny. I will be in Columbus during that time frame. Not the same with snow in other places- even if you are there. Been there and done that already and not the same feeling.
Bring on Spring 🙂
Chris: “I just want some rain from this system as we are already starting off the year below normal in the moisture department.”
My thoughts exactly. I posted a comment yesterday on rainfall deficits since December 1st that Chris’ Moderation Monster gobbled up.
Cloudy and 62 here, Chris. NIce day, but I wish the sun were out more….not bad overall though. I will take it!
Is this trending south out all? wouldn’t take much for me to get in on the action! about 50 miles south of I70. I’m sure it will be mostly cold rain, I have shared the pain you have had in Kentucky with near misses. Best snow all winter has been 6″, and that was early on. Would love to see one good shot before Spring!
SURE ARE GOING TO BE SOME TEMP SWINGS THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. MOST OF THE TIME THAT MEASN SOME SEVERE WX IS BOUND TO POP UP, BUT NO REAL DISCUSSION OF THAT THIS TIME. ANYONE SEEING ANY SEVERE WX THREATS? I HAVEN’T SEEN A T-STORM IN QUITE A LONG TIME!
Depends, I would enjoy some storms!!!
To those of you that frequent the blog with more experience interpreting the models, what are your thoughts on the 12z GFS run this afternoon?
Can someone help me interpret those temp. maps? I understand the colors represent degrees above or below normal- what is normal for this time of year?
Has anyone noticed the dewpoint drop during the past few hours. Louisville’s dewpoint (4pm) at 13 now while London is still at 53. Although temps are pretty mild still, they will quickly tank after sunset.
Probably what’s kicking off these heavier rains developing along the front.
Heavy Rain currently in Pikeville temp in the 60’s
It is significantly nicer than I thought it would be today!!!! Don’t get used to it!!! 😉
For those interested, I won’t have an update on my site until later. Have a lot to do tonight.
All I got to say is it better be warm down in Atlanta for the SEC tournament, March 10-13. Im over winter, keep the cold and snow. We’ve had enough.
Some of the maps above showing the cold are showing time frames in the morning. Keep in mind that normal low temps for this time of year are still in the below freezing range. Not saying that we won’t get colder than normal temps some days, but everyone needs to keep in mind that it is still winter time. Not going to stay warm all the way through March.
Maybe the perfect storm hits and we get enough cold air in here with the moisture. I’m still thinking day time highs stay in the 40’s or higher for the most part until we get to spring. Don’t put the coats away, but we will get our share of nice days during this period also. 57 outside right now and more than enough warmth to enjoy yourself.