Good Sunday everyone. Things are beginning to warm back up across the commonwealth today and this is a sign of things to come. While the warm temps of the next several days will be getting much of the attention… the potential for an extreme setup to close out October is something we need to keep a very close eye on.
The weather today will start frosty cold and end mild with temps hitting the 60s. Gusty southwesterly winds will bring much warmer air in here Monday as highs warm into the middle 70s. Those 70s are going to hang around through much of the rest of the week.
A strong cold front will approach the state from the northwest by Friday. This front is being pushed by a cold air mass that looks like it’s from December and the overall setup by next weekend could get wicked. In addition to the plunge of cold… we could have a tropical system spinning down in the Caribbean or off the southeast coast.
The models are all suggesting the cold front begins to slow down on top of us as an area of low pressure develops along it and lifts into the region by Saturday or Sunday. Some of the model solutions are going to the extreme with a huge storm coming together. The European Model…
That solution would most certainly give us a taste of winter weather around here. Every medium range model I look at suggest a taste of winter weather for our part of the world. That does not mean they are correct, by any means. The interaction of that storm with a possible tropical system could cause things to get a little crazy across the eastern half of the country.
A few weeks ago, I talked about how this fall had shown some similarities to the fall of 1993. That year featured snow on the final two days of the month, including a white Halloween for many. Some of the upper level model forecasts for early next week are very similar to the setup from that year…
That’s actually not a bad match in the upper levels. Of course, it is still 7-8 days away, but if we see something similar still showing up a few days from now… then we can really take the winter possibilities a bit more seriously.
Are we really doing this already this year? 🙂
Have a great Sunday and take care.
Chris, are you forgetting the white Halloween many had LAST YEAR?
Morgan County Middle School had a white Halloween Bash last year. (Oct. 24).
Oops…..actually the white Halloween Bash was on Oct. 28th last year in Morgan County.
Pretty exciting stuff!!!!
Was reading about Hurricane Hazel…Lots of similarities between the two setups..
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel
DeJa Vu
Kick the football Charlie Brown
LOL…What a change on this run of the gfs..The cold runs and hides while flooding in the north east..Maybe the tropical system has thrown a wrench in things for our neck of the woods..
Way to early in the game for this snow possibility, really, come on Chris you know better, if this was Nov 21 maybe a shot at something then, any model run that shows snow around here is just eye candy!
My response will be “copy and pasted” for the duration of the winter: “I have learned from the past; I will believe when I see it.”
Agree, snow lovers around these parts has been burned way to many times, heck we can’t get a storm to hold true 24 hours out in the middle of winter without a last minute choke out! We love ya Chris, but the snow dome has kicked are fannies for a while now!
Saturday could get even more interesting if the tropics kick in a contribution to this mess. Better enjoy this coming week!!
Last week…actually, a little earlier than that, I was telling my next-door neighbor that I thought we might see something nice & “wintry” come the last w/e of Oct or around the 29th…it was merely “guess-work” on my part, but I had that “gut-feeling”, nonetheless….?! He didn’t believe me…I told him to check a few wx sites online (esp. Chris’ and Wave3)…I’m still uncertain about this, as we all know how those models can waffle up worse than an IHOP on a Sunday morning, but I still think there is a CHANCE that some of us here in the OV can see some flakes…early Monday, I’m thinking??! 🙂