Good Monday everyone and welcome to a very warm week across the bluegrass state. I often hear people complaining we don’t get enough nice and warm days as the fall colors are at their peak. The weather of the next several days should allow the complaint department to take some time off. While this week is nice… the picture from late weekend into next week has the potential to turn nasty.
Highs today hit the 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. I can even see a shower or isolated thunderstorm popping in the west and north.
Highs Tuesday will be warm into the 70s under partly sunny skies. Highs Wednesday will warm well into the 70s under partly sunny skies. Highs Thursday will warm well into the 70s under partly sunny skies. This is not a recording.
A strong cold front approaches the state from the west later Friday into Saturday. This will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back in here during this time. The big news will be the drastic turn to cold behind this front and the possibility of getting something rather extreme to happen across the eastern half of the country.
The wild card in this whole situation is the possibility of a tropical system developing and interacting with the deep trough digging into the east. The European Model continues to offer up a super extreme scenario…
That shows the trough capturing the tropical system and developing a mega storm with snow on the back side and tropical conditions ahead of it. That would be a one in a 100 year type scenario and the chances of that verifying are low.
That said… it’s not like some of the other models aren’t close to showing the exact same thing. Take a look at the Canadian…
There are a lot of variables at play this weekend and early next week and it will be several days before we know how they will come together. The amount of blocking showing up on the models suggests some wild weather is possible over the next few weeks…
The combination of a positive PNA, negative NAO and negative AO is one that always gets my attention during the fall and winter. The main signal is usually for cold temps, but severe blocking can often lead to some interesting scenarios.
Look… the cards are on the table for an early season taste of winter weather here in Kentucky.Does that mean it will happen next week? Of course not… but the indices are pointing toward the possibility into the first half of November. Remember me talking about some of my analogs suggesting early November? They have the indices in their corner right now.
I may throw you guys another update later today. Have a great Monday and take care.
Looking forward to the warmer weather after such a chilly weekend, Chris!
With the colder weather on the wayindoor air quality is going to be more important!
WOW! What an informative post Chris. I have to start researching some more weather terms as well.I am sure everyone who reads your blog appreciates all the time you put into it. Have an awesome Indian Summer week!
1 in 100 year senerio sounds good to me. If it does not happen, oh well! If it does, Great! Would love to see another snowy Halloween. We could make some White Whitches Brew and throw snowballs at all the trick or treaters. Thianks Chirs for all your hard work and dedication to this post.
so what you are saying is, focus on the great weather this week cause it will all come to a screeching halt next week?
so lets discuss what outdoor things we will do this week as a last gorgeous weather hurrah!
put away my patio stuff.
get my delicate outdoor plants ready to come in.
take a long walk with the kids.
Play outside with the kids
Soak up some sunshine and Vitamin D
Grill out all week long
Put some winterizer down on the lawn
Chris…we realize that weather forecasting is about as easy as pulling hens’ teeth! It’s always fun anticipating the winter weather and SNOW! Hope we have lots this year! A one in 100 year chance, why not? Have a blessed day and thanks for keeping the Blog rolling!
They are actually forecasting snow October 30 and 31 on th weather channel 10 day outlook. We will have to wait and see if that verifies or see if this storm will be a dud..that is the forecast for right here in southern west Virginia
ohh its going be a WILD WINTER by the look of things. getting possiblities thiis early gets the juices flowing.
Are the 70s canceled today? There still is no hint of sunshine at my house
Please hold off on the cold a few more days past Saturday Senior pictures are scheduled for the second time. First, my son broke his leg and now cold weather. Beautiful foliage and my kid, doesn’t look like it’s gonna happen. Oh and as long as I am placing weather orders, hold the snow please. Today is great!
Somebody’s gonna get some wild weather according to what the models are saying wouldn’t that be something hurricane and a foot if snow all in the same forecast package from the same storm!! My my my! !
I have a love/hate relationship with this week’s weather. It’s nice to have sunshine since I get very depressed during the prolonged dreary winter weather we get around here. (the clouds always roll in and stay)
However, I hate the bugs who seem to thrive in the sunny warmth and swarm my house. Wasps, the giant spiders, the lady bugs, the flies — they all want in my house!!
Does anybody have a non-toxic way to keep the bugs outside? The wasps are especially nasty since I have four little dogs who will sniff anything that moves on the floor.
It seems that I read that spiders/bugs HATE the smell of Eucalyptus – so do some people. I love the smell. You could buy some essential eucalyptus oil and put it in areas around your home. It might clear your sinuses and get rid of bugs at the same time.
Thanks! I am all about the non-chemical approach. My house is organic from top to bottom. Very good info and I will try it!!
🙂