Good Tuesday everyone. The weather for the next several days continues to look very pretty and very boring. The weather for this upcoming weekend into next week continues to look anything but pretty and boring. The cards continue to be on the table for a potential extreme event across the eastern half of the country during this time.

Some thoughts:

– A cold front moves our way late Friday into Saturday with showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it.

– MUCH colder air is moving in behind the front for Saturday and that cold likely grows stronger into early next week.

– A deepening trough across our part of the world will really dig into the eastern part of the country. This happens as Tropical Storm/Hurricane Sandy works into the Bahamas from the south. This storm is likely to slowly lift to the north and northeast over the weekend. The trough begins to take on a negative tilt and tries to pull Sandy back to the west toward the mid atlantic or new england for landfall. After that.. a fully phased storm works westward toward the Great Lakes. If it is successful in doing so… wow. This thing could get crazy with hurricane conditions and snow all wrapped up into one storm.

– That is a big IF as we are still several days away from understanding exactly how the interaction between the trough and Sandy will work out. Still… all the models expect for the GFS (it’s clueless but trending toward a storm) show a monster storm. Here’s ya go:

Canadian Model gone wild:

Here’s the precipitation forecast from the same model run:

The European Model is almost identical:

Notice how the storm keeps bending westward? That trend continues into Tuesday night on the European:

The NOGAPS looks equally as wild:

If you take those models on face value, what do they say about our weather? They say we get VERY cold this weekend into early next week with the potential for wraparound rain and snow Monday and Tuesday. Again… that’s me simply telling you what the above models are showing and it doesn’t mean they are right.

I mentioned the GFS is the only model not showing much interaction between the trough and Sandy. The model didn’t even have much of a cold shot, but is now showing colder numbers with each run and is also getting closer to having the big storm like the above models show. The GFS Ensemble Mean is trending in that direction, too:

You can clearly see the Ensembles pulling Sandy back to the west toward New England as our trough goes negative.

As i said… there is a real possibility for an extreme event across the eastern part of the country. It is by no means even close to being a certainty as sandy and the trough could miss one another. Either way… our weather is going to get cold. How cold and will anything else come along for the ride? Those are the questions will be answered later in the week.

Okay.. I’ve mad a ton of model maps for you guys. It’s still October… I need to pace myself. 🙂

Check back for updates and take care.