Good Monday, everyone. Our week is kicking off with a cold front rolling from west to east across the state and it’s bringing a seasonal brand of chill with it. This chill is the tip of the iceberg compared to the cold air coming behind the front later this week. That looks to be the first of several blasts of early season cold from a pattern that’s more reminiscent of what we would see in wintertime.

Winds are very gusty ahead of today’s front and this southwest flow will boost temps well into the 70s. There isn’t a lot of moisture for this front to tap, but it will be able to spit out a broken line of showers and storms from late afternoon into the evening. Here are your friendly weather radars to follow the wimpy action…

Temps drop a good 20 degrees or so as the front moves through as seasonal chill shows up for Tuesday. The day may start with a few spots hitting the 30s across central and north-central Kentucky. The rest of the day is flat out awesome and that awesome rolls into Wednesday. Enjoy the pleasant temperatures because you may have to find the winter coats by Friday.

A big time fall front arrives Thursday evening and has the coldest air of the season behind it. We find the models all seeing the setup well, but they differ on the individual details. The GFS is displaying the usual bias of being too progressive…

Slow that down and deepen the trough and you’re in business.

On the flip side, the Canadian looks too slow with the trough and develops a winter looking storm system along the front…

The EURO is finds the middle ground between those two solutions…

BTW, the Euro is going to struggle with the amount of energy diving into the Rockies. The bias of this model is already showing up in some runs.

Another system will follow that up by early next week, but you can’t expect the models to figure that one out until the one above gets worked out. Still, the models continue to spit out some interesting possibilities…

Buckle up for some wild model swings in terms of specifics and that’s to be expected given this highly anomalous upper air pattern…

That’s wicked for this time of year. If we can keep that blocking going into the winter months then look out. IF being the key word there. 🙂

I will have another update later today. Make it a good one and take care.