Good Tuesday to one and all. We are issuing a full blown Spring Fever Alert for the rest of the week as a surge of very mild air moves in. This will set the stage for the mildest run of air since November across much of the region. As we bask in the thoughts of an early spring… old man winter won’t go quietly into the night and will likely stage a comeback over the next few weeks.

Let us start with the precious present as the weather today won’t be too shabby. Partly to mostly sunny skies will be noted as temps warm into the upper 40s to near 50 east and 50s west. Some clouds will increase from west to east later today.

A surge of mild air will move in on Wednesday and will likely be accompanied by an increase in clouds and a stray shower or two. Temps will warm toward the low 60s for areas with some sun and mid and upper 50s for those seeing more clouds or a shower.

It is once into Thursday the real warmth moves into town as readings soar well into the 60s. Check out the NAM temps…


Will someone see the first 70 degree temp of the year out of this? It is certainly possible if we have enough sunshine.

Winds will begin to really gust up during this time and that will continue into Friday as a cold front nears the region from the northwest. Temps will again surge toward the 60s before clouds roll back into town. This front will produce a narrow band of showers by Friday evening into early Saturday. Colder air will move in behind the front as readings come back closer to normal for the weekend with low and mid 40s possible.

The overall weather pattern across the country is likely to become very active over the next few weeks and that should begin next week. A back and forth temp pattern is very likely over the next few weeks as bitter cold in Canada seeps into the northern and western parts of the country. This happens as warmth across the south pulses northward from time to time. In between this dual of the air masses is likely to be several strong storm systems working from the southwestern states toward the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.

If you want to see what I mean by a “back and forth” temp pattern… take a look at the GFS Ensembles Temps departure forecast…


Take a look at the last two maps and you will see one heck of arctic surge heading into the states. This should start in the west and work east into the first week of March as the old man tries to welcome in the new month with a bang.

Just for fun… the operational GFS model has a lion of a start to March…



Let’s not worry about all that just yet as we have a little taste of spring ahead of us this week. Have a great Tuesday and take care.