Good Sunday everyone. Here is hoping the blog finds each of you having a great weekend. While we are only into the middle of February… the weather around here for the next week is going to feel more like March with gusty winds and mild temps. That being said… the potential for a winter comeback is looming for the following week.

Today will be a good looking day with a partly sunny sky and temps warming into the 50s for most areas. Winds will crank up with gusts to 30mph or greater. Those same gusty winds will likely be with us for the next several days. Warm ups this time of year often come with a lot of wind and this one will be no different.

Valentine’s Day will see temps come down a few degrees from today as a weak front slips across the region. This will again crank up the winds and allow for a bit more clouds to enter the picture. There is also the smallest threat for a shower in the east and north.

The middle and end of the week will feature a HUGE shot of warmth for much of the country. This will likely send temps into the 60s around here for a few days. If everything works out just right… a 70 will be possible. There is still a weakness in the atmosphere showing up on the models for late Wednesday and Thursday. This may mean an increase in some clouds and an isolated shower. If that is the case… temps may be held in check a bit.

Beyond that… we will have to be on guard for the return of old man winter into late next weekend into much of the following week. A cold front should cross the region during the weekend and kick the warm air out of town in a pretty big way. As quickly as the warm air builds in… it is gone…

GFS Ensembles Temp Departure


That is an impressive sight… and I don’t think the Tuesday numbers are cold enough on that particular run.

I have been talking about how our region would likely become the battleground for the end of February into early March. Arctic cold should invade the northern half of the country as the seasonal warmth tries to fight into the southern states. This pattern can lead to numerous rain and snow events for the Ohio Valley with the potential for a few big storms cruising in between the clash of the air masses.

The European Model is certainly heading in that direction and is doing it pretty quickly…


You can clearly see what i’m talking about with the “battle zone” being right across our part of the world. That spells an active pattern ahead and also says winter isn’t done just yet. By the way… this may also be a signal for our spring severe weather season, too.

I will get another update out later today so check back. Have a great Sunday and take care.