Good Wednesday everyone and thanks for making KWC your home for weather. As we continue with our run of Indian Summer, a major temperature change is barreling toward the bluegrass. This change arrives on Friday and will give us some very cold air this weekend into early next week. All of this sets up the possibility of a possible extreme event across the eastern part of the country.
Temps today and Thursday will continue to run very warm with upper 70s to around 80 for the entire state.
Our change begins to show up Friday as a very strong cold front works into Kentucky. This front is showing up a little quicker on the models and our temps to end the week will tank. We may see a 30 degree temp spread from west to east across the state Friday afternoon. The cold then spreads eastward Friday night into Saturday morning. The NAM shows it all very well…
There will be a lot of wind associated with that front pushing through here. Showers and thunderstorms will also accompany the boundary across the state and that is likely to impact some high school football games. Showers will then linger into much of Saturday with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s.
The NAM even hints at some other junk nearby by Saturday morning…
That’s probably not going to happen… but is kinda cool to see and is an indication of the amount of cold air pouring in here.
Speaking of the cold… it will become entrenched in here from Sunday through the first half of next week. Does it bring any precipitation with it? That all depends on how the evolution of the wild pattern along the east coast plays out.
Sandy is on its way to becoming a Hurricane and will lift northward into the Bahamas by Friday. This storm is going to come VERY close to Florida and that’s something I don’t think is getting enough play. That storm will then slowly lift north-northeastward and may brush the Mid Atlantic states this weekend.
Our trough across the east will continue to deepen and do everything in its power to pull Sandy westward toward the Mid Atlantic or New England. If it is able to do that… an extreme storm will impact a whole lot of people.
The overnight model trend is more favorable for that scenario to play out in some form or fashion. Several of the models show some energy from Sandy separating from the storm and forming a nor’easter. Let’s review the model runs:
The European Model continues to show an extreme solution and it’s the only model showing the same thing run after run…
The model continues to suggest a direct hit from Sandy for areas in and around New York City. That would be a devastating storm!
We continue to see the European Model taking this storm westward by late Tuesday…
The GFS Ensembles Mean continues to trend toward a similar idea…
Even the GFS is now coming around to the idea…
That is a huge change for the GFS and is likely a signal it will continue to trend westward. Time will tell if we can get anything but cold and windy weather from that setup.
I will have another update coming later today. Have a great Wednesday and take care.
This is exciting.
My Christmas present: please arrange a couple of dynamic cooling events this winter.
Are there any models currently keeping an ever-so-slight chance of light snow alive for parts of NE Kentucky?
well, the GFS is fully on board and is now forecasting an east coast landfall…..
what a STORM FOR NEAST, man flooding big threat there with somew wet snow maybe in western NY and PENN.
the UPPER LEVEL LOW that going be right on us going be a vigirous one for sure. going be a wild windy event around here. one most interesting weather situations ive seen in long time, weith a hurricane etc.
if this is A a sign of things to come, better get ur POPCORN ready.
Hurricane, snow,thunder,lightning,flooding.heavy rain….everything but the kitchen sink…and who knows you may see one floating down a river somewhere after SMASHING SANDY blows onshore !!…
Sandy and Tony in the Atlantic. Sounds like a West Side Story revival.
Exciting indeed! I live in Richmond, VA. Sure wish we were getting some snow out of this. I am glad for all the drought areas; they could really use the rain. Chris is there a site like yours for the Richmond Virginia area? Usually we can tell what’s in store for us a day or two after it happens to KY. I think it’s noble that you are raising awarenes for your state. Our local Mets are paying close attention to Sandy, however they believe mostly that Sandy will head toward Bermuda. I’ll stay tune to your site also. Love how you use people friendly words instead of a bunch of Meteorological words that not too many folks can understand. This is too serious. Folks need to get ready to get ready!
I hate an old cold dark and dreary day with a misty kind of rain. I bet that’s what our weekend will look like. I would like the weather to be like it is today for the little kids on Halloween. What’s the point of a costume if you have to put a coat over it or not get to go at all!! Boos for the forcast!!