Good Thursday everyone. The gorgeous stretch of weather we’ve been seeing across Kentucky is about to come to a crashing halt over the next few days. We’re going into a wild weather pattern that may deliver the first taste of winter to parts of the state as we get close to Halloween.
Fans of the warm temps should make it a point to spend as much time as possible outside today. Our readings will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees with mostly sunny skies. The warm air gets kicked from behind on Friday as a strong cold front sweeps in from the west. We will likely see a 30 degree temperature swing from one side of the front to the other. The numbers from the NAM prove the point…
That is a heck of a temp drop and it will be accompanied by gusty winds and an increase in showers and some rumbles of thunder. Those showers will hang around behind the front on Saturday as our temps struggle to get to 50 degrees.
By this time we have a deepening trough being carved out across the eastern half of the country. Hurricane Sandy will be working northward off the east coast and our trough is likely to catch the storm and pull it westward. Exactly when and where that happens is yet to be determined. The models are all on board with the trough and Sandy hooking up… but they differ on the details. Let’s review their status:
The European Model continues to hold as steady as a rock and continues to slam the Mid Atlantic coast with Sandy…
The model then takes the storm into the eastern Ohio Valley suggesting there could be a heck of a swath of snow with it for someone.
The Navy NOGAPS pulls the storm inland across the Mid Atlantic and also works it into the eastern Ohio Valley…
The above models are getting good support from the leading Hurricane Model…
All the models above show an extreme event unfolding with a raging snowstorm on the west side of a landfalling tropical system. Those even suggest the possibility of extreme weather into our part of the world. Again… I am ONLY breaking down what the models are showing you. This is in NO WAY a forecast I’m making at this point. There is still a lot of time to play with and it’s impossible to ask the models to be correct from 4 days away.
That said… other models aren’t as extreme with the solutions they are showing.The Canadian Model takes Sandy all the way toward the New England Coast before pulling it westward…
The GFS Ensembles Goes the New England route…
That brings us to the ever changing GFS. The latest run of the model takes Sandy on the scenic route and is way north of anything else. Still… the model catches the storm and pulls it back to the west.
There’s a lot of moisture being thrown into the cold air. The GFS precipitation map shows many areas getting in on some flakes…
If you take a look at every model I posted… you will see they all give us the CHANCE of seeing the first snowflakes of the season (if not more) by Halloween. We know it’s going to be cold… we know it’s going to be windy. I just don’t know yet if we will see precipitation around here that falls as snow. I will say we are certainly in the ballgame and it’s going to be fun tracking that possibility over the next several days.
I will have updates later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.
Sandy’s hardly spent any time over Cuba at all, and its already approaching the northern shore without much disruption to the system. Incredible…
The 8am advisory from the National Hurricane Center has Sandy back over water, still 105 mph winds. Eastern Cuba has some moderately high terrain, didn’t seem to hinder the storm much.
The Bahamas are next to feel Sandy’s direct wrath. Florida starting to get effects.
What a gas to see the possibility of snow in October. Since we didn’t get much snow last year, waiting expectantly for a bunch this season! It’s fun to watch the “cold” weather unfold. Thanks, Chris…you’re the “bestest” weather dude!
I agree, you are the best. Would you like to move to Richmond Virginia? 🙂 Seriously, I appreciate you for letting folks know what could happen. A lot of Mets are afraid of causing panic, but isn’t it better safe than sorry? Isn’t this why we spend so much money on these models or doplar radars. You give us the information in plain terms where everyone understands. Some of us might not know how to read models; but we do understand your take on what you see. Thanks.
Thanks, Chris. You’re the best weatherologist!!
HAPPY !
halloween, and possible snow..hmmm…how about sledding on pumpkins…lol…lol…
😀
Or skiing. One on each foot, ha!
Wow!!! The first two model maps look real enticing for E/KY. If Sandy can strenghten and the westard movement happens early( if it happens at all) snow could be in the forecast for much of Ky next week. Someone in the NE USA is going to get hammered if the above models hold true. Thank you Chris for your time and effort!
Bring it!!!!!!!!!!
Yikes! Lucy already placing the football for Charlie Brown to take a swing? 😉
i see a long painful winter for us if it is starting already.
Wow! This kind of reminds me of the blizzard of ’93. A similar pattern set up. chris, just think, as our weather year has been so “wacky,” this would fit right in with the rest of it, wouldn’t it.
question though…with our temps being so far above normal for this time of year, for a snow to come and stay would require a lot of it, would it not? Just askin’.
Have a GREAThursday, everyone, and thank you, Chris, for all the work and effort you put into this blog. You are appreciated more than we can ever tell you! Guess we are in wait and see mode now….
hey gang! i live in colorado springs now and we are expecting 3-4 inches of snow here tonight in town. western parts of the county looking for 5-8 inches! allready experienced a few snows up in park county above 12k feet this early fall season! the snow seemed to never make it to me so i made it out here to the snow!
Could someone tell me around what time of day we will see these changes tomorrow? We have a Halloween party scheduled and was hoping to have some outside time.
Gonna be fun to watch this storm setup unfold.
Looks like the latest run of the Gfs pretty much destroys parts of the northeast..Dont think i would want to be living in new york or anywheres in the northeast right now..Meanwhile lastest run of the Dgex gives Eastern ky over 2 feet of snow…WV over 4 feet..lol…Hey ya never know..
I’m about to become a very busy Meteorologist up in southern WV. Hope you snow lovers in eastern KY get a little love from this storm as well ;).
rub it in my friend…lol be sure to get the time lapse video set up and ready to go…so we can all drool at the scenes…lol
It is around 80 degrees in most of central and east ky today, people thinking that snow will stick this time of year are getting fired up for a snowballs chance in hello????
Pure wives tale. Forget about the snowstorm 2 days after 80 degrees and tornadoes in March? How about last October in the Northeast when they got 2 feet of snow on a warm October ground?
This is Kentucky, anything is possible. A heavy wet snow fueled by Atlantic moisture just a few days after Indian Summer…sure it’s possible. Are you forgetting that we had several inches of snow back in October 1993?
What is the largest temperature range from High to Low in one day?
Example: High of 80…Low of 27
?
The biggest temperature difference in one day occured on January 23-24, 1916 in Browning, Montana. On that day the temperature fell from 44 to -56 F for a incredible drop of 100 F.
Reference:
http://www.realclearwx.com/swr.htm
Looks like sandy is phasing a little quicker on the latest Euro run..Guess that is why it’s showing a more westward movement when it phases….Real interesting to say the least…
Will this be a storm for the record books? This is getting very, very interesting.
SOOooo.. glad that WV’ers are able to get your forecasts Chris. This site is my first stop every morning. I can’t believe just how “conservative” the mainstream weather forecasting is. It is blogs like this can be lifesavers! BTW, I was so thrilled by the prospect of a heavy snowfall just east of Summersville that I ordered up a couple of pairs of snowshoes! The X-Country skis are fine for the more open stuff but we will have 32 acres of woodland to pick our snowy way through next week I think :^)
Okay I got it, someone grab a grapple hook and we will tie it to a winch and pull it west.
If you take the models, including GFS, verbatim…you’re looking at bigtime snow in West Virginia. Like, very problematic snow actually. And probably will see flakes in Kentucky east of I-75 also. NYC gets a very strong wind/rain/snowflakes storm. Possible serious flooding issue for them.
Are we talking measurable snow for E/SE Ky?
Measurable? Possibly. Maybe enough to call it an official white Halloween.
Chris, thank you so much for your hard work. We miss you in the Huntington, WV area!!! I just wanted to let you know that I still follow your blog. Thanks!!!
So thankful that we are still able to look at your blogs which also include our area in WV. Miss you here but always watch your newscast while visiting Lexington. You were and are the best weatherman ever. Keep the blogs coming. Some of us depend on you to get our days started:)