Good Friday, folks. We have a very fine weather day taking shape to kickoff the weekend, but gusty winds will soon take center stage. This occurs as a strong cold front drops in here from the northwest early Sunday and some of those winds may cause issues. That front also ushers in a blast of colder air for early next week. I’ll take a look at that and focus on the Turkey week outlook and beyond.

The weekend front will throw clouds at us as early as Saturday and a few showers also show up. The best chance for Saturday rain is across the west and north, but this looks fairly scattered at the moment. There’s also likely to be a big temp spread from north to south.

Low pressure develops in the Mississippi Valley and heads into the Great Lakes early Sunday, dragging a cold front across the state. Winds will absolutely crank in this setup and a few gusts may reach 40mph-50mph at times. Look at some of the gusts the models are spitting out.

EURO

GFS

NAM

A band of quick-hitting showers will be along and ahead of the front, but this should clear out for some sunshine by Sunday afternoon. Another front then drops in behind this with a seasonal brand of cold air into the middle of next week. The Canadian Model still likes that sneaky little clipper looking system behind it…

Temps will rebound slowly behind that by the end of the week.

So, I have the winter forecast all finished up and it will be released on WKYT next Thursday. Upon completion, I usually take a look around to see what other folks have come up with. I always wait until I’m done so nothing skews my independent judgement. Once I started looking, it confirmed just how much the weather community has become an echo chamber. Just about every seasonal outlook I’ve stumbled across (pro and amateur) seem to use the exact same couple of analog years to come to the exact same conclusion. Folks, as someone who has had some seasonal success and seasonal fails, I can flat out tell you it ain’t as easy as finding a year or two and saying this year will be exactly like that. As a matter of fact, it never ever happens.

I was also seeing recent forecasts for a blazing warm Thanksgiving week. These were put out at the same time I’ve been talking about signals showing up that can lead to colder weather and some winter stuff in the eastern half of the country.

Those signals are starting to show up a little better in some of the computer model guidance.

The GFS for Thanksgiving week has a busy look to it…

The Canadian Model only goes out to next Sunday, but you can see the cold front pressing in with a storm system developing near Texas ready to ride northeastward…

Notice how the average of the 51 member EURO Ensembles is showing a trough developing on top of us Thanksgiving week…

The EURO Control is much more pronounced…

 

If we look a little deeper down the road courtesy of the new GFS extended, we find some festive flake chances through the first few weeks of December…

GFS Extended Control

Again, those aren’t meant to be taken literally, folks. I just use them as an illustration on how models are seeing the opportunity for some snows. 🙂

I will throw you another update later today. Have a fantastic Friday and take care.