Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another much colder than normal day across the Commonwealth, but we are about to turn the thermometer up for the next several days. This is ahead of a very active setup developing from the weekend through your Thanksgiving Week.

Let’s start by looking back at the frigid morning. Check out the top 10 coldest temps from the Kentucky Mesonet…

B to the RRRRR. Again, not a single model run at temps anywhere close to those to being that cold.

The numbers start to climb on Thursday, but there’s a little kink in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. In recent days, the EURO has been adamant about the chance for more clouds and a few showers going up. Now, it has a friend in the NAM…

If those showers do show up, it will keep our temps under 60, so we need to keep that in mind going forward.

The bulk of the action does come at us starting late Sunday with the first system arriving from the west and southwest. There will be another one right behind it on Tuesday and early Wednesday. The models continue to change a bit on each run. Here’s how the Canadian sees these two systems…

That’s certainly colder behind that second system for late Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Canadian then follows that up with an arctic front by Black Friday…

Here’s the current vision from the GFS and it’s not as cold with the second system…

The model now follows that up with a big cold blast and some festive flakes for Black Friday into the holiday weekend…

The EURO is more similar to the Canadian with the colder look behind the second system…

The EURO then really wraps up a storm system along the arctic front after Thanksgiving…

The after Thanksgiving setup is the one to really watch in this setup as it does have a shot of cold air coming behind it.

You’ve been hearing me rail on how warm the various Ensembles have been all year and of late. The new run of the European Ensembles are finally seeing the deepening trough after Thanksgiving…

Compare that to the Euro Weeklies for the same time…

Again, folks, the Ensembles simply have not been very good this year, especially the Euro Weeklies. They cannot see cold or troughs until it’s literally right in front of them.

Enjoy the rest of the day and take care.