Good Thursday, everyone. It’s windy and milder day taking shape across the Commonwealth as we get ready for a busy setup ahead. This busy pattern will kick in later this weekend and really take hold during our Thanksgiving week. This means a very active pattern that continues to trend colder as we get closer. Can we get in on a taste of winter weather at some point? Maybe.
Let’s kick things off by reminding you that the winter forecast comes out tonight at 6pm on WKYT-TV. 🙂
As far as the weather goes out there today, it’s all about gusty winds. Those gusts may reach 30-40mph across the north and west as temps range from the upper 50s to middle 60s. Abide by all local outdoor burning bands on a day like this.
A few clouds wonder by our skyline on Friday, but will those clouds carry a shower or two for some?
Let’s start this party out with the NAM. This model only goes through 7am Sunday as of this writing, but it’s been the most consistent with the Friday and Saturday shower chances. It’s also a much colder solution and sags a front right on top of us by Sunday morning. The model is even spitting out snow to our north by early Sunday…
That’s likely too cold and a bit too far south, but the trend is for this system to arrive much quicker on Sunday. It’s also going to be followed up by a stronger system late Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest EURO isn’t too dissimilar to the NAM on Sunday and shows the second system well…
The Canadian is also pretty quick with this first system and gets it in and out by early Monday. From there, it takes a little longer to develop the second system then cuts it off and rolls it on top of us through Wednesday and into Thanksgiving Day…
The Canadian then blasts a much stronger system behind that for Thanksgiving Weekend…
That one certainly has more of a winter look to it.
The GFS continues to handle the first two systems in similar fashion…
But it has no clue about any kind of system late in the week or into next weekend. Instead, it just blasts a cold front in from the north…
On the flip side, the EURO is playing into its bias of holding too much energy back in the southwest.
Moral of the story is… Thanksgiving week is going to be a busy one as we wait to iron out all the details.
I’ll see you guys for another update later today. Have a good one and take care.
Thanks Chris, I sure appreciate all the time you spend studying all the various weather models to give us “weather weenies” a very informative blog each and every morning and afternoon.
I hope for the sake for all Winter lovers on the blog that Winter weather will start to invade the Ohio Valley region soon. The snow drought will end someday folks.
Have a great day all !