Good Tuesday evening everyone. Your friendly weather dude is just dropping by for a quick update to throw a snow forecast your way and to show you the Advisories that are out.
First off… kudos to the NWS offices in Paducah and Louisville for their advisories and a “WHAT?” for the NWS in Jackson for issuing nothing. They are forecasting 1-“-3” of snow from a system that will be starting in less than 24 hours and fail to issue an advisory and go with a special weather statement instead. I would love to hear their reasoning. Serenity now! 
Anyway… here is a look at the current advisories…
Here is my first forecast for this glancing blow of snow…
I will update that map coming later tonight so be sure to come back and check it out. Have a great rest of your Tuesday and take care.
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What is the timing on this snow for southern Kentucky?
Ready for 2-4 but would like more!!!
Man, CB beat me to it.
I just posted my ‘First Call’ also.
Looks pretty similar.
Also, my ‘fun poll’ will be up till 6pm tomorrow.
Thanks for the update Chris. What time will the snow be into southeastern, Ky tomorrow?
So far the storm is overachieving in the plains. Reports of 11 inches out of Kansas already when 4-6 was forecasted. There appears to be more moisture available than expected. Will this help push the snow shield farther north in Kentucky? The short range RUC and HRRR seem to have it further north than other models. The low near the Mexico/Texas border is already down to 998mb, it wasn’t shown by any model to go below 1004mb. I don’t know what this means as far as affecting us at all, but I thought the stronger the low usually, the more northeast it wanted to go.
Here is the last run of the RUC at 24 hours out.
http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/from_jet/ruc7t/full/2011020820/cref_sfc_f24.png
Weather statement for Clay County
… LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT…
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SKIRT SOUTH OF THE AREA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING… BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CUMBERLAND AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL RODGERS AND KY80 CORRIDOR… TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY… WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY.
Here is the weather statement Chris was referring to for southeastern counties. Why not upgrade to an advisory?
My first call for snow is now out.
Alright guys/gals that want to look like a pro. Who thinks this will trend north as the day goes on tomorrow? I’m not feeling it, but I know some of the models are. What say you!?
Haha, I dont want to look like a pro..I just like weather and I like having a blog about it. But I have already said the words “Storm of the century” to 1200 people lol last week joking, They took me seriously. I for one think it will go further north than we anticipate.
I am addicted to your weather blog! Just want to let you know how much you entertain with your comedic, yet slightly sarcastic, weather analysis and the accuracy you give time and time again….your hard work doesn’t go unnoticed in BG, KY!!
SO !!!!!!
someone call NWS in JKL !!! their alarm clock hasnt went off yet….FOR THE LOVE OF A SNOWSTORM WHAT IN THE WORLD ARE THEY SMOKIN!!!!!!!!
I don’t see any southeast movement to the precip shield out west.
So, if it tracks further north like Lincoln thinks it will does that mean much less snow for SE KY? Ugh, I’m so tired of getting left out!! 🙁
The models are trying to show that (at least some of them) Just curious if an inch or so of that will go North of Lexington to Paris, Cynthiana, etc.
Ok, it is looking like it will trend northward. the NAM has trended northward recently, even the GFS has, only I see the GFS being too weak. Also, almost every storm has come northward this year, and I completely expect that with this one.
Take the current RADAR return from OK…Move it over KY and draw a dry circle from LOU. to LEX. with both cities in the circle. 1-3 inches will fall all around the circle and a dusting in the circle. I am so ready for spring, but I am holding out hope for a March Snow…Always happens…
wow that is north! I’m not surpised they got a foot in spots temepratures were near 0 with heavy snow for several hours. stronger the low more mositure into KY.
Darth Bubba approves of this post as a document of the Dark Side.
biggest concern I have now is the dewpoint gradient 14 at BWG which is fine but only 3 at Lex.
I saw one report of -2 degrees and heavy snow. Those snow ratios have to be insanely high
LORD BUBBA…I will be looking to join the dark side in about 24 to 48 hrs. Save me a seat on the parting ship.
I will only hold out hope for our typical March storm.
I don’t know. I just have a different feeling on this one. I think it may stay south. Also, is the atmosphere going to be ripe for snow to fall or are we going to get the infamous snow on the radar but not on the ground?
I guess the snow/rain from yesterday took all the moisture out of the atmosphere. Low dewpoints equal dry air and virga….That is as bad as COLD RAIN…
Actually i am impress with the returns out west. If that storm would move directly east Lou&Lex would be a direct target. Again the word IF comes into play.
What dewpoint gradient is necessary for snow to reach the ground??
Hilarious…I am done with winter…if we can’t get the big one…go home. Play big or go home. I love the hype 6 days out, why even mention it? Let’s just say we are going to get a dusting and if it blows up we can all wake up surprised just like we did in ’98. Forecasting has not gotten any better since that time. It goes to show God is in contol!
I am joining forces with the dark side 😉
Sorry, very little to any snow in the Lexington area. Starting this Friday the temps. will be increasing for the next 5 – 7 days. Spring is coming, remember to prune your roses and any other plants, we will be having new growth on plants soon. One may also add any additional seed to your lawns now, fertilize at the end of Feb. or early March. You want your fertilize to get as much early rain as possible.
We had a great winter for Lexington, but we will have to wait until next year for the big snow.
Hey, the Derby is fast approaching!!!!!!!!!!
I made the same comment last post. See mitch below and my comments. DRY AIR will eat all that moisture up before it reaches the ground. I do like the IF….
JACKSON waiting to issue a WSW possible for us TIMMY. looking at latest data they will issue WWA at least by tonite update.
Dewpoint and Temps must be even give or take a few degrees….If temp at 28 dewpoint 18 or below no snow.
The RUC is showing good temp and dewpoint combo.
Didn’t see Pikeville on there lol j/k.
Ideally, relative humidity of 70% or higher. For example, temp 30 & dew point 21. Can start snowing at 50% relative humidity. More info below:
http://www.komonews.com/weather/faq/4307422.html
Are you kidding??? Pikeville ruins my forecast every time. lol.
This is for Rolo and I know he likes it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzhzCF77GDo
I am in 1-3 but 20 miles from the 2-4,well I way or another I am getting hammered.
what is going 2 happen 2 the snow if it moves directly east lou and lex would be in good shape but the models have nothing 4 us im not figuring this out
When do the next models come out?
I wish someone who KNOWS weather could help me to understand the radar images here: http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true
The storm looks to be WAY north of where it was supposed to be. Is it supposed to dive down south abruptly or something?
Seriously Lincoln….enough already.
Go away!
00Z NAM will be out any minute.
The nam 12z about 2140 or 940 pm You can see it if you click the nam & gfs model on the right side at this site.
Great 24 hour forecast map. Will answer some questions about movement of this system.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_12z/jloop.html
I know all the weather experts say Louisville is not going to get any of this but you have to admit that big blue blob that seems to be heading this way sure looks impressive.
LOL Classic Dr. Riddle. LMAO that wont be a hard total to reach in his back yard. Heck, he already has nearly eight inches hahhahahaha
Looks like that completely misses Louisville & Lexington areas!
Yes, This supports all the snow forecast models too. I’m ready for spring anyways.
You sure didn’t seem to be joking when you first posted it on Facebook.
Ignore the haters Lincoln, they are just jealous that they don’t have a blog. Keep on blogging and keep on posting.
00Z NAM is running.
From what I can gather there is two different pieces of energy. What is supposed to happen is all the snow coming at us right now is supposed to get eaten up by dry air. The 2nd piece is now starting to build up in Oklahoma, which is what is supposed to expand and head southeast giving Dallas snow.
I am going for a busted forecast. Lexington ends up with at at least 3″. Also have UK by 30 over Bruce Pearl and his band of delinquents.
Thanks Jon….that is sad news, but it helps me to understand. I was suddenly hopeful!
The way the radar looks right now, Northern KY is going to be the ones getting the snow and S/SE Kentucky are going to be left out.
Looks like this one has a mind of its own.
Wow…Ky actually repels the snow in that radar. Phenomenal. I must respect the powerful forces which do not want snow in Louisville. I want to reserve my seat on Lord Bubba’s Dark Side transport to spring.
00Z NAM is bad news; and it was one of our better models for snow near Louisville. Go south if you want white. Too dry up here; unless mother nature pulls something massive out of her bag of tricks.
Everyone talking about the dew point eariler… I’m still confused. So if it’s 18 degrees in Lexington right now with a dewpoint of 8 (which is what it says)… what does that mean?
What are you annoyed at? Hmm, I don’t advertise. Everyone else is putting up snowmaps.. Why can’t I? Grow up.
Hating must be hard work, when I just bounce back.
I was replying to Lame. I enjoy reading your posts along with many others on the blog. Where do some of these m0r0ns come from?
The official Donkey Holler weather station (at my house) shows 22 degrees and 92% humidity. What dry air?!?!
That’s what i was wondering! I’m in Northeast Ky and our temp is 18, dewpoint 14, and humidity is 89. From what I have read on here that means it would snow? So why will all that snow go south????
Check out the dew point
3″ per hour snowfall rates in northern texas!!!! Over 15″ of over acheiving snow on the ground in parts of kansas.
i hope there is no school
Yeah at my house its 14. I thought the closer the dewpoint is to the temp. and the higher the humidity the snow hits the ground and doesn’t get eaten up by the dry air?? Am I wrong?
If my kids don’t go to school the rest of this week and all of next I’m gonna go crazy!!!! I love snow but if we don’t get a big one that they can get out of this house and play in they NEED to go to school. We are all going stir crazy…
Snow,Snow,Snow… Come play the waiting game with us..
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
the weather chat!!!
No, you are right…dew point is 8 in Lou.
Finally got my second call over on my blog if anyone is interested.
hmm..that sucks Louiville air gonna eat all our snow..LOL.
Thanks man. Good work.
I really like your blog. Thanks a lot.
that was supposed to be a reply to larkin…
in the southern laurel county the dew point is 13, temp 15.5 and relative hum. 90%
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I have read all of the comments and know what the models say, but I cannot understand how that blue blob is going to go anywhere but straight into Kentucky…
The storm is going south now..
I had the same thoughts..but watch the radar in central Misouri the snow just seems to stop and only the southern portion of the storm keeps traveling east. cold air eating up the moisture (I think). I don’t know much about the weather stuff but that’s what it looks like to me.
Seriously, Annoyed…enough already. Why can’t you please just leave Lincoln alone? I enjoy multiple opinions on weather, and am glad to learn when new ones, on sites like Lincoln’s, have been updated.
The way some folks on here treat each other is frustrating and discouraging. Why can’t we all just get along and play nice!
The temperature in Shelbyville is 17 with a dew point of 8.
Are you tired of cold and snow?! Then try our all new Snow Away Snow Repellent, now with genuine essence of Bluegrass! Bluegrass has been shown in studies to be a remarkably effective snow reducer, reducing snowfall in 99.99% of snowfall events! Accept no substitutes! Snow Away Snow Repellent – a product of Dome Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of S. Miser Industries.
Lincoln, Likes to play Met..lol Loved how he put up his map today after CB and some other’s did. He likes to pretend he’s all rich, has a lot of money, paid his car off in a few months, has money in the stockmarket, family lives behind a gated community, But… He’s just a 18 year kid, still growing, So I don’t hold his behavior against him. He’s just trying to impress people, We all have done that at 18. Cracks me up when people ask him to explain something about weather and truely can’t…lol
1 to 2 inches southern and eastern.
Extreme western 2 to 3 inches.
Anything north maybe a flake or 2..
I think your confused..with my cousin, from Oklahoma.. He is the one who is rich and lives in a gated community. However, I do personally have money in the Stock market. And I did pay my car off in a few months. Would you like me to come sale you a sunroom? I kinda get the feeling you are Jealous, that must be embarrassing for you. I love love love the hate im getting today! THANKS GUYS!!!
you posted this either because your jealous, or have nothing else to do with your life. A.My cousin is the one who lives in a gated community. B. Yes,I personally own stock in the stock market. Sorry I get inheritance. C. yes, I paid my car of in a few months.D. I have no one to impress, this is the internet. Also, I am transferring to OU this fall, in hopes that I can ” play met” as a career.Why must it be so hard for you to think I can be successful at 18? Hmm..? Love Love Love the HATE TODAY GUYS!!!THANKS OH SO MUCH.
Who else wants to take their shot at me today?? I am all ears! lol.
You’re ugh….ugh…too friendly, and ugh… occasionally don’t update every day? 😉
Sorry, that’s all I could come up with.
Let ‘er RIP! 4-6 inches for SE Ky. Rolo, prayers for you, get to feeling better soon, man!
Lincoln you stated in chat a few days, it’s your brother that lives in the gated community and that he had ice on the gate and couldn’t get out..lol Which is it, brother or cousin??? You spend a lot of time in weather chat for somebody who travels across state with work, has 2 jobs and goes to college…lol
I for one appreciate anyone who takes the time to study weather and expresses their informed opinion………
Lol!
17 here in Keavy and dewpoint at 13 degree’s, humidity is at 83%. Hear we could get several inches down here. Is models showing this? Still wondering why there hasn’t been an advisory or watch listed for us in Laurel County yet.
I have an iPhone, you wanna say something else about that as well. Guess what I can update from my phone, also can run Ustream from my phone as well as twitter and youtube.My cousin lives in Moore, OK. He is the one in the gated community. My brother Lives in Lexington. If you actually looked at my blog, you would know this, How? Because My cousin ( Johnathan) Updates Oklahoma, and currently is running a live stream. Go look at the Oklahoma tab. My brother (Andrew) Updates Kentucky occasionally. Don’t try and downgrade something when you don’t know what you are talking about. If you have a problem with me, then why do it here. Why not facebook. Or even the chat, here i tell you what,
come talk to me. This is not the place for this.
http://ekywx.com/kychat.htm
omg…you stated in kychat that your brother lives in a gated community and he could’nt get out due to icing..That was you , not a cousin… Not downgrading nothing here, I’m honest. Not being mean, just honest! Why would I be jealous of a sales clerk of patio furn. store??? dude, wish you would pick up how some of the chatters in kychat tease you about not knowing much about weather. Dude, I’m done, take care.
Allen County sends you a shout out, too. My boss from Earl G Dumplin’s restaurant got me hooked on you last year, so I’m not your only supporter here.
Cannot look at the radar at this point. Most of the precip on the radar is not reaching the ground. Where is it reaching the ground? Eastern Kansas is the first report to get an actual snowflake. We have tons of dry air to defeats, tons. Going for a dusting to one inch for counties not touching Tennessee. 1-2 inches for counties touching the Tennessee. Not looking good folks.
Bill all of that in Northern Missouri is not hitting the ground.