Good Tuesday everyone. Thanks for all you guys do and I appreciate all the snow reports from the overachiever of Monday. Well… we did ask last week if the worst of winter would come our way this week and for many in the west… it did. 
With that snow now in our review mirror… it’s time to look ahead to our next potential snow maker for Wednesday and early Thursday. Will we see the models come north? That is the big question of the day.
We will likely see some leftover flurries and even a few snow showers out east today. There could be some icy roads early in many areas, so take it easy out there. Temps today will be cold with readings in the 20s for highs. Winds will be a bit breezy leading to a colder feel to the air.
Low pressure will be working out of the southwestern states later today and will find its way into the lone star state by Wednesday morning. Overrunning moisture will be streaming well north of the surface low with heavy snow breaking out in the southern plains. These snows will then streak our way Wednesday and Wednesday night. The moisture can only get so far north in this setup and the challenge will be to figure out where the invisible wall will be setting up to stop the snows northward progress. As of now… that west to east “wall” looks to set up across the northern part of the state, but there has been a slight northward nudge with the last few compute model runs.
The NAM has been really rock solid and leading the way with other models slowly coming around to how it is thinking. Here is what the latest model run snows…
And the NAM snowfall map for your entertainment purposes…
Again… don’t take that to heart.
The latest GFS Ensembles are making a northward jog with the snow shield…
A few random thoughts on this storm…
– We are going to have some very cold air in place as the snow moves in. This means we will see some very high snow ratios taking shape with whatever snow does fall. That simply means than the same amount of moisture that normally produces one inch of snow can produce 2″-3″ of the white stuff.
– The highest chance for several inches of snow will be across the southern half of the state with lighter snows to the north.
– Will we see the seasonal trend of lows winding up farther north and west than the models show up at the last minute?
– There is a chance we upgrade parts of western and southern Kentucky to a Winter Storm Threat later today.
– There is still the chance most of the snow misses us just to the south.
– Stay tuned.
The temps for the rest of this week will be way below normal. Highs will generally run in the 20s and lows by the end of the week can really tank. Single digits are a good bet and if we can put snow on the ground with this next system… zero or a bit below is not out of the question.
We have been hawking a flip in the pattern from this week to next. Check out the GFS Ensembles temp anomaly forecast to prove our point…
I will have more updates coming later today so be sure to check in. Have a great Tuesday and take care.
Select Page
Am I first?? Oh well if not its all in fun. Thanks so much chris for your hard work, while I am ready for warmer weather I would love to see one more good one, or in our case a good one.. take care .. what do any other blogers think for rockcastle area? I don’t even attempt to read maps lol
Central KY Snowdome in full effect, it looks like. Just another slight miss!
(First?)
of course, every system has taken a trend northwest and dropped decent snow when it did. now when it could help KY with snow totals, it wont.
it snowed for 7 hours today in louisville and we might have gotten an inch. ive had it with this winter…
{{stepping to the ledge}}
Looks like a nice chance of this area getting a decnt snowfall. How much do any of you guess that Southern Laurel County will get if this map stays in place? I’m from Ohio and I am really missing the big snows this year. I am ready for spring but not until we get hit with the BIG ONE!!!! 8″+ .. that is all I am asking.
3-5″
Here is my take on the upcoming system, and it is based on two models. The GFS is so far south, it has the storm taking a cruise in the GOM. The precip doesn’t make it into TN. The NAM is farther north, but only very light precip makes it into the southern half of Kentucky. I believe we can put a fork in this one, and for us NASCAR fans, look forward to firing up the grill before the Shootout this Saturday night.
I have a fun poll on my blog that you may find challenging. Guessing snow accumulations for 2 cities that are positioned near the ‘dump’ zone. Have fun. Poll ends tomorrow afternoon.
I like mine with syrup and butter.
No snow for Kentucky…This low will track across the gulf coast waters and out to sea along the Atlantic…Bring on the warm and sunny days until March when we see are next cold snap and talk of a big snow. Winter was above avg. on snow totals (LOU. AREA) but all ankle biters…
so you don’t think SE KY like London/Corbin will get anything?? thanks !!
Noticed a station giving snow totals this morning. Amazing how most of KY was significantly above normal for snow totals, yet really no big snows fell outside of the upslope counties. Lots and lots of the ankle biters this year.
A dusting at most. I just don’t see this low moving far enough North to account for anything.
We got lucky here! Just a dusting of snow @ Wayland in Floyd County.
CB, as long as “central Kentucky” is not in the outlook for a good snow, it probably will be correct.
Darth Bubba is back, BABY! 😉
Enjoy the snow this week. Every local and national met i’ve watched this morning has indicated a pattern change coming next week. Personally glad it’s coming.
What I’m having a hard time understanding with this next system is how the arctic air here (with temps. in the mid 20’s) will be enough to suppress the storm, while the arctic air in the southern plains, particularly OK, which will be in the mid 10’s at the height of the storm isn’t enough to suppress?
Lucky means TONS of snow! 🙂
It is actually much worse than that, since we normally would get four to five snow events a year and at least every three years, a BIG snow. Now we get over twice as many snow events but ZERO big events.
Point being, the systems are coming in near record numbers, but none have resulted in a big event for the area (central KY being emphasis).
We are getting more chances than normal, but still same result for many years. For the more math and statistically leaning folks, this is NOT a good trend for snow lovers- unless ankle biters are your thang’.
WOOHOO…..I can usually trust your opinions more than others so glad to hear it! So what about EKY this week?
When do you ever find time to spend with your family or sleep?
Good Morning,just sitting here looking at the beautiful light snow falling.
We have talked about strange weather,my sis in law lives in Las Cruses NM.She is a Federal Marshall there and they just bought a new home when that storm hit it got to 5 degrees with 6 in of snow when the temp warmed all her water pipes in the walls burst flooded clothes carpet.She is 20 minutes from the Mexican border I can’t believe she had that weird weather there.
Just curious, why do go by bubbag,,,why didn;t you go with something like
s-tropper
D-Vader
Ewalk
R2Weather2
Snowwalker
Han-snowlo
Just some ideas, I guess I bummed-everyone around getting big snows, not us!!!
jump!!!!
Southern KY should see plenty of snow this time. 😉
I really wanted to get one big snow out of this winter, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen in Louisville. This was a winter full of cold, but much of the cold went to waste because no big storm came through the area.
Considering it’s going to warm up next week, I think I’m ready to put a bow on this year and start looking forward to golf weather. For me, that’s 70’s and above. The good news is Joe Bastardi is pretty confident next year will be colder because of the switch to the negative PDO and the fact the second la nina is usually much colder than the first. He’s predicting another la nina next year.
ok, I give up! Except for a big snow the first of march. Then I’ll be done wishing for snow. We have to get something this year!
Roads are icy in Shelbyville. Be careful!
is clay co. in the favored area for wed/thur snow?? and how much could we possibly see?? thanks for any input 🙂
ahhh…look at all those wonderful winterstorm watches, and warnings…blossoming like a june flower, and of course they are blossoming well to the south of ky…lol
………………………
I SAY EITHER TREND NORTH,,,, OR FASTFORWARD TO NEXT WEEKS SUNSHINE AND WARMER WEATHER…
It appears as though, if we plan on getting a big snow it will be last second like the last few storms that have affected western ky..ya never know. lol
I’m off to Benton (from Nashville) tomorrow. 8-10″ in Marshall County! So glad I have family there…good reason to get out and enjoy the snow!
Are the models showing any northwest trend as of late? I am holding out hope but I’m in Johnson and it doesn’t look good. Will the cut-off be sharp if it does come north?
Actually the lastest run of the nam moved a little NW and a little more moisture towards the north west side of the shield,(more snow for OKL/ARK..LOL) Storm has not got much moisture with it,but like Chris said we should see some good ratios with the cold air.I think this little baby will put down at least 5 inches in the southern counties as of right now.
Talk about your arctic cold: parts of Kansas and Nebraska are reporting heavy snow, 1/4mi vivsibility with temperatures around 0°!
Bubba Fett still gets my vote! 🙂
so is louisville getting anything off of this batch of snow?
Still enjoying my snow Chris.Some flakes are really big I would say whats not blown off there is still 1.5 inches.It is pretty.
Here in Adair, Metcalfe, Cumberland were close to the TN border in South Central KY what do you think we will see this week if anything?
No updates since Sunday on your blog. Gotta get cracking.
As wacked out as the models have been lately I see no reason ( other than 14 years of history) that we won’t see a NW trend wed and thur. The models can accurately predict something is going to happen, they just can’t tell you where. So if they are saying it’s not central KY it means we’re still in the game.
I have a nice write up on my site about the future and this storm, if anyone is interested.
So true. Over 26″ of snow thus far, without a single event over 4″, and most in the 1-3″ range, what we would call mostly nuisance snows. I was reading about Kokomo, IN, my wife’s hometown, and they have had a little over 30″ this winter (12″ of which came in the last week), but have had 7 total 2″+ snows, two of which were 4″+ and one 6″+. Far fewer events for a higher total seasonal snowfall. They now have a snow depth of 10″.
I love this site and have read it faithfully for the past 2 years and I have found that Chris is closer to being correct more than any other weather forecast. I have never posted anything but, I have been hearing about spring coming early and I just wanted to know if anyone here has ever heard that spring will not truly begin until after Easter? Easter isn’t until April 24th this year. I was just interested in knowing. Thanks Chris for all you do!
Nicely done Pierce. Excellent post.
Did he jump?
thanks chris i appreciate you. larkin got a great post on his sight also. lincoln has not posted anything in quite a while, i wonder why
Splatttttt!!
Thank you very much!!!!
I finally got an update to those who wondered. I have been very busy the last few days( mostly work, super bowl and class yesterday).. Check it out.
I have an update out to those who were wondering. Just finished it! I have been rather busy the last few days with class, work, and the super bowl etc. So go check it out!
I have an update out to those who were wondering. Just finished it! I have been rather busy the last few days with class, work, and the super bowl etc. So go check it out!
moderation i hate you!!
BubbaG is a combination of several silly things and “Darth Bubba” turns it up a notch to ludicrous speed silly 🙂
Unless a miracle northern shift, the trend is east-south east. This mean the further east, the more south to get much of anything.
I tried the optimistic approach a while, but was going against the actual progression of the events. Central KY is the big snow dome and there is NO WAY to refute this. All naysayers have been forced into accpeting this after this winter (and the 12 before it). What causes the dome- who knows? Point is- it is what it is: Big snow aint’ happenin’ in central KY.
As a few of us have been saying: Commerce in the area needs to market this to non-snow loving folks, or people that love ankle biters 😉
So southern KY might get a light snowfall. The more interesting thing is the warm-up coming next week! Finally…a long stretch in the 40s/50s. GFS shows no snowstorms in the next 15 days, which can’t be taken literally but shows that the pattern is about to change up a little.
Good read! Thanks!
Fits a LOT better, but not as silly as Darth Bubba 😉 Lame is the name of the game 😉
I never take myself too seriously, nor should others 🙂
Which means for all of us fence folks- it is changing a lot 😉
Bring on Spring 🙂
Yes, extremely well done. You could be a pro one day for sure!
I have an update out to those who were wondering. Just finished it! I have been rather busy the last few days with class, work, and the super bowl etc. So go check it out!
What do you think about this?
I know it’s pretty far out there, but over the years, you guys in and around Lexington have blossomed over the past decade. I think you’re creating a mini-heat island effect that’s been destroying most of your big snow chances like Louisville.
Brandon….Wanna’ get together this evening or tomorrow and do about an hour long Snow dance?…LOL
That’s what I’m thinking on this one. This may be East / SE Kentucky’s “Big One” for the year. I hope so anyway….our chances are dwindling.
Seems like anytime a big snow even is downplayed and “fizzles out” among most of the area Mets, LOOK OUt!!
Like the Blizzard of 93 that was forecast as Flurries..;)
Difference is, Lou. has had several big snows in the ensuing years (not to mention many southern cities of a much larger size – i.e. Dallas)…
Thanks Neil. I haven’t researched Louisville’s biggest snows over the past decade. But I do remember the Dec 2004 and Feb 2008 events. Those were in the area of 10″ or more. When I think ‘big snow’, I’m talking amounts similar to those.
I have an update out to those who were wondering. Just finished it! I have been rather busy the last few days with class, work, and the super bowl etc. So go check it out!
Lincoln, doesn’t know what He’s talking about when he blogs about weather. He takes his info from real mets and blogs..He doesn’t know how to read weather models…lol
Nicely done! :o)
I don’t think so. Louisville has seen big snows in recent years, so has Paducah and other larger KY cities. Also, Lexington is consistently one of the coldest official reporting stations in the state. Even in the Summer, the obs. coming from LEX are a few degrees cooler than everywhere else. LEX’s time will come again one day.
Maybe, the overall weather pattern has shifted just a bit east over the years. Maybe, Louisville’s former snow dome is Lexington’s now. I don’t know, but I agree, Lexington is due for one soon.
Keep in mind, we’re a transition state, so it’s already one strike against us.
My brother is a doc in Cruses–they got down to 2. He managed to get everything insulated. He said El Paso was crazy–no electricity, and now a water emergency.
This is such a great resource that you are providing and you give it away for free. I love seeing websites that understand the value of providing a quality resource for free.
First of all, I would like to appreciate the choice of theme that you have chosen for your blog, it looks perfectly wonderful. Now, coming on today’s post I must say that you have explained the subject in a concise manner that makes it easily understandable. Thanks for this information.
I’ve wished to publicate something looking like post on my web-blog and you gave me perfect idea. Thank You!
Such an amazing article!.I wanted to thank you for this great read!! I enjoying every little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff in your blog
I found very interesting stuff on your blog. Thanks for sharing.