Good Saturday, everybody. A cold front is pushing into the state today, bringing gusty winds, showers and a few rumbles of thunder with it. Much colder air seeps in behind this as Old Man Winter starts to flex once again. Two winter weather threats are showing up from Sunday night through Wednesday, with the overall pattern skewing wintry just in time for Christmastime.

Let’s kick this thing off with the weather out there today. Winds may reach 40mph at times as a line of showers and thunder rumbles rumble on through. This action will weaken the farther east that it gets and it is not going to be raining all day. Here is your daily dose of rain tracking radars…

Temps are still mild today with highs deep into the 50s with a 60 here or there in the east.

Much colder air then sweeps in from northwest to southeast Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Sunday is nothing out of the ordinary in terms of temps with normal to a little below normal.

At the same time, low pressure is rolling from Texas toward the Tennessee Valley. Moisture streams in ahead of this from southwest to northeast Sunday evening into Sunday night. Temps are marginal for snow, but we may very well see a swath of snow take over with some dynamic cooling. This would be similar to what happened back on November 30th in central Kentucky and may lead to a wet snowfall for parts of the region, but exactly where this sets up still has some wiggle room. It still depends on the exact track of the low and how strong it gets. Here’s my main area to watch…

The EURO continues to match up well with my thought process…

It’s really spitting out some big time wet snow in the southeast…

The HI RES NAM only goes through 7am Monday, but targets southeastern Kentucky just like the EURO…

The new NAM came in stronger and farther north with the low, bringing the snow shield farther north…

Here’s how that looks in terms of snowfall potential on this model run…

The NAM can sometimes be too far north with such setups, so we have to be mindful of that.

The GFS is also farther north, but it’s struggling to find the dynamic cooling. Remember, it never did show snow with the November 30th system… even as it was snowing 2″.

That said, the model is beginning to see some snow in the southeast for the first time…

The Canadian Model continues to show a mainly rain maker with a flatter low…

The storm system coming in behind this is likely to be a major eastern US winter storm. This comes as one weak low works toward the lower Ohio Valley or Tennessee Valley then gives way to a huge storm east of the Appalachian Mountains. That may absolutely bury the mountains all the way to the east coast and into parts of New England.

For us, the track and strength of the first low into our region will be the determining factor of what you get where you live. I’m on record saying this could be a fence situation with every form of wintry precip on the table. The models are certainly showing more and more of this…

EURO

GFS

The Canadian is a straight snow maker for the entire area…

Now, is there somehow we can get the main low along the east coast to trend west? That may be a pipe dream, but how many times in the past have we been in the snow bullseye from 5 days out only to see it wind up to our west?

I will have your normal updates later today. Have a good one and take care.