Good afternoon, everyone. Our focus continues to be on the back to back systems working toward us from Sunday night through Wednesday. These are both potent systems that can produce winter weather across Kentucky, but there are still questions with both.
My time for this update is short, but I’ve got you guys loaded with models to make up for it.
Let me start with your radars to track the remaining showers out there today…
The next system moves in from southwest to northeast Sunday night and Monday. This is a fast moving system that has a ton of moisture with it. It’s lacking a true cold high to the north or it would be a major snowstorm across the region. Instead we are seeing a muddled system that brings heavy rain, some light snow on the far northern edge of it and a swath of accumulating snow showing up where dynamic cooling takes place.
Odds continue to favor this dynamic cooling across the southeast. I’ve made no changes to this map for two days now…
The EURO likes the idea…
The HI RES NAM is much more choppy and connects all the way to western Kentucky…
The EURO Ensembles and Control run have slightly better snow chances farther north…
Again, the heavier the precipitation rates, the better the chance for the storm to pull down enough cold air for a few hours of wet snow. Slushy accumulations will be possible in some areas, but I can’t tell you more than that at the moment.
You can see this dynamic cooling taking place on the EURO a the heavy rain goes to snow in the southeast…
The HI RES NAM tries the same thing…
The NAM never fully gets the snow cranking, but boy it is close…
The GFS is closer than it was before…
In addition to the potential for a swath of slushy snow for some, heavy rainfall is becoming more of a threat. The models are spitting out up to 2″ of rain across southeastern Kentucky and this falls in just a few hours…
GFS
NAM
That would be enough to cause local high water issues.
The next storm system then takes shape starting Tuesday night as a weak low moves into the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. That soon gives way to a big storm to the east of the Appalachian Mountains. The weaker the lead low into our region, the better the chance for snow and winter weather.
The EURO has snow, rain, a touch of sleet and a touch of freezing rain…
The Canadian continues to to have a little better snow signature…
The GFS is similar to the EURO…
I will have another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.
I would rather have a good rain than slushy snow. That’s depressing Chris ! LOL
Weather models are still indicating Nor’ Easter’s for next week. Something substantial to track.
Today’s rainfall was only 0.08 inches. We can’t even get a good rain and it’s getting dry in my county of Taylor.
Is there ever going to be shift in the overall weather pattern so we may get in on the snow action here in Kentucky ? A question that can’t be answered at this time.
Not much to get excited about at my home in Louisville.