Good Super Bowl Sunday to one and all. Your friendly weather dude has had a long weekend for various reasons and will be keeping this post rather brief. We have two systems to track in the coming days before the pattern takes a vacation for a few weeks.
Today will feature a mix of sun and clouds for all those Super Bowl parties across the region. Highs will warm into the 40s.
A cold front will swing into the region late tonight and Monday and should have a wave or low pressure developing along it. Ahead of the front… a few showers will be likely. As the colder air moves in… a period of light snow will be likely and you can see that here on the GFS Ensembles for Monday evening…
There is a decent shot at a swath of light accumulating snows setting up across the area and the latest GFS snowfall map has this…
Cold air will then push in and carry us into Tuesday with daytime temps in the 20s.
The storm for the middle of the week we are watching continues to show up on the models. It is not showing as strong a signal with the latest computer runs with many delivering a glancing blow to our part of the world…
Canadian Model
Again… there is so much going on with the weather this week… the models are going to struggle to figure it all out. One thing that will play a big factor in the mid week storm will be what happens over the next few days along the east coast. A bigger storm along the east coast early this week is likely a signal the next one would be weaker and skirt by to our south.
Once past this week… temps are going to head up as we head into Valentine’s Day week. You can probably tell my tone has changed over the past few weeks as I am switching more toward spring mode as even this winter lover needs a break. 
More updates will come your way later today. For now… time for some R and R. Have a great Super Sunday and take care.
I sense chris is losing faith on the northwest trend. I’m going to wait things out.
I sense a loss of faith as well. I just feel a little bummed out now 🙁 I guess if se arent gonna grt much snow, bring on the warmth!
Thanks Chris. Not losing hope though. We will see what happens. Gonna pray for one more peaceful snow before the good Lord brings the sunshine. God willing, we will get a big snow. 😀
yet, another western storm at the hands of another coastal storm. IF that’s any indication, the second storm may not make it to what it’s been brought be. The tale of the winter has been coastal storms and each and every one of them have been STRONG, with the exception of 1 or 2. Well I guess all we can do is pay attention to the computer models and hope for a weaker coastal storm. 🙂 thanks for the update
i’m done with winter and her teasing… bring on spring anf spring storms!
Agreed, I am over this winter pattern. lol
Your right.
Winters over folks, nothing to see here, move along.
Guess I’ll be keeping the faith for everyone on the blog. I still believe.
Sorry to tell you that New Orleans Saints are going to the Super Bowl again this year. “Who Dat” 2011
I just realized the Saints have been knocked out of the Super Bowl. Why did I not know that, you ask??? Cause, I have spent three months tracking snow North, South, East and West of Louisville. I want to thank all of you & CB for a fun blog this winter. I’m ready for spring!
I still think there will be opportunities for snowfall.But I threw in the white towel after this last event. If it snows it going to have to be a real freak of nature.
Well, intentional or not, CB has set the tone for the posts today. Even the long hold-out snow lovers of faith are giving up. Just put it into perspective. We’ve been told for over TWO MONTHS NOW, the pattern is “ripe” for a big storm to dump on Kentucky. Fast forward through 7 “ripe for the taking” storms, and here we all are…not one snow over 4″ for 90% of Kentucky! I wont even list the dozen or more southern cities who have been hit with bigger snows. For as cold as this winter has been, it is a HUGE bust. Even the snow lover in me would rather have 50s and sunny instead of 30s and gloomy with a mucky ground. The emotion that all of us have put into tracking the next “big one” time and time again, has finally emotionally exhausted each and every one of us hoping for the hammer, to no avail. Ps- if CB really thought this mid week storm was any threat, he would be talking threat mode possibilities by now. So, enjoy the last couple remaining ankle biters everyone.
Please just let this winter be over coming on here and reading this week that we are going to have snow and artic cold to only get the post that Chris has give us today is to much of a let now for me I’m am tired so please bring on spring and let this winter be over Chris you are the best but this let down winter has just been to much for me……….
I feel a disturbance in the force.
The Advertiser that is delivered in Bourbon County has photos of men hand shoveling a road back on March 11, 1931. There was a huge snow on that day. The roads had to be cleared with shovels by hand. Can you imagine???
I’m ready for Spring myself after yesterday morning…it just had a scent to it reminiscent of Spring and there were a few robins running around the yard. Just for the fun of it I may go do a little front-porch sitting after work today!
some people like to get hyped up so they can keep being let down apparently..so there you go
You mean another winter storm is gonna miss us again when it looked like we were gonna get socked? I’m shocked I tell you. NOT!!!!!
Waffles anyone? Syrup? No?
Meck and company have been all over this one all along.
Great updates, decent posts however the net net bottom line is the same old stuff. Long term teasing with the same ole outcome, a good storm a week out turns into nothing. As far as a Spring break for a few weeks, no we don’t need that, heat and humidity will be here soon enough and I am not real sure I believe your call. After all most calls here and on EVERY weather blog you can find is often never verified and should go to window casting. No met or model is much correct past 6 days out. Just the plain hard facts. If they happen to be then it’s Merry Christmas and Happy Birthday because it was a lucky guess.
Ya know, if you don’t like it here and don’t have any faith in CB’s knowledge and insight, then WHY ARE YOU HERE? You keep coming in here and slamming this blog and its owner and disputing every update….its obvious you like offending people and the reaction it gets, like you are lacking attention in your life….but please, do us all a favor, if you don’t believe anything said here, then please…. don’t let the door hit ya where the good Lord split ya.
Really if next week’s system misses us, we can pretty much pack it in on another tease of a winter. Nothing scientific in my reasoning, just looking at our track record. It seems that the weather reality now is that Dallas, TX is more likely to get big snows than we are, which is beyond ridiculous. I just wish there were an easily discernible reason why we just can’t get anything bigger than a 4-6″, and why we haven’t had a snow depth greater than 5-6″ in over 13 years, but there isn’t, and I guess its just our lot in life as snow lovers in central Kentucky to be disappointed…period…
Mr.Weatherman
What is your forecast?
I need a major change
I can’t stand no more PAIN
Everthing’s been going wrong
please tell me it’s something in the ozone
or is the atmospheric pressure just too strong?
I can’t ride out one more storm
Because I’ve had too many highs and too many lows
too many storms that DON’T UNFOLD
I need some blue skies and sunshine
I need a good forecast tonight
Because I’ve had too many highs and too many lows
too man storms that DON’T UNFOLD
I need some blue skies and sunshine
I need a good forecast tonight
Hope your weekend forecast is right
hope you got me on your weather eyes
i love the snow too, in dec and january but now i am ready for spring. Soccer tryouts next week and one child has soccer practice outdoor starting February 16 it is time for spring
Our snow results so far are like the Cats so far- so close, yet so far away 😉
Not saying anything directly about the actual system for mid-week, but considering the last two events (counting this Sun/Mon one) looked promising under 24 hours away to CB and both are not panning out- what will them odds be then for the mid week one?
Not to mention the outlook for February just a few days ago was supposed to be snowy & cold and now it might be getting a few week break…
Not saying either way of course for the mid-week “event”, but a trend is a trend. I suggest we should not get bent out of shape wondering and be thankful (so far) of no bad ice event and Spring flowers 🙂
Still, we can all say what we want, but the models (from an average) have been fairly accurate five days out. The issue is we tend to sometimes pick the models that look the best. Average of them all for me, and always has been 🙂
The good news for the Cats is that all but two will probably be back next year. Factor the kids coming in- WOW 🙂
Good job, by the way, CB in interpreting the all but useless info coming out of the models lately – you can only do so much, and I’d love to see your detractors do a better job!
Extremely well said.
Sniff, sniff…..I smell a troll!
My oldtimer dairy farm neighbor said he saw some robins, too. Could it be a sign? When the red-winged blackbirds show it will be a sure thing.
I thought all of them crashed and burned down in Ark earlier last month…LOL…March may be the month of the big one….LOL again…
Not CBs fault the models that were doing okay are now starting to get flaky when under two days to the event.
Seems a sign of Spring to me and CB is even hinting that 🙂
Thank you Chris for all the hard work you do for us! We know you don’t have to do this, and we really appreciate it. You are one of a kind my friend!
to every one out there: just because chris says it does not make it so. how many time through the course of the season has the same chris told us not to waffle back and forth with the model runs?
now here 3 to 4 days before the storm or possible storm, here he is sounding so gloom and doom.
could it be that he has just having a bad weekend, he said himself that it had been a long weekend so far so that should tell you some thing.
every one on here makes it sound as if, if chris says it can not happen then it can not happen, well it can still happen.
look what happened friday night, this storm came back further west than any model out there had it coming, period.
it done so at the last minute, also. i have all the respect in the world for chris, but when he says potential storm in the east he just does not mean our area, but chris, you have to realize that we in the tri-state or kentucky are not concerned with what happens in newyork or boston.
as for the brock woman, i very much respect her opinion, a lot of storms have been hyped and not many have lived up to the potential that chris or the models seen coming maybe a week prior to the event.
maybe this why chris is so down today because he is starting to realize this. he is still a great forecaster but not the greatest and he is not god.
thank you
Amen to that :))
Everyone is acting like ky missing snow is CB’s fault. Nobody has control over the weather except for good ol Mother Nature! Chris is a wonderful forecaster,and thanks Chris for all that you do! I would love another snow, but if it misses us, well we have had above average snow this year and hope we may get the BIG ONE next year!! Keep up the good work Chris!
i see nothing wrong with her comments, she is simply stating the fact that another storm hyped up a weekm away but to only skirt around us. she said it was a great post and blog, but as much respect that i have for chris, any one is entitled to his or her opinion.
chris only reads the models so just because the weather does not play out is no ones fault.
maybe the reason that chris is so down today is maybe he is starting to realize that there has been a lot of hype recently only to be let down and this is one of them days.
chris is the very man that tells us not to waffle back and forth and today, low and behold, he is the 1 giving up.
i will go on record and say “a storm is coming mid to late week and models will start correcting with either the 12z runs or the 18z runs”
thank you.
Hmmmmm…
If you listen closely, you can hear taps playing on the midweek storm. It’s quite a letdown because we’ve faced this scenario since the first week of December. When the history books are written on this winter, it will be remember as the winter of almost.
Crap.
i am sorry, i should have said his or her comments. thank you and no disrespect meant to you.
WOW! What a difference a day makes! Talks of the wildest weather of the winter yesterday? Today 1 in. or so with each storm?????????????
Jank Brock is a pro-troll – just punch “jank brock” into google and watch the millions of comments pop up. It seems he comments on any topic and his language is as foul as some of the topic he comments on.
NOW, back to winter!!!!!!!
Just say you meant for the fall season–2011! That’ll work…
Here is a link to a who will win the super bowl poll. It takes you to facebook, however you dont have to be a member to submit your answer( so if your not a member then unclick the word share)
http://poll.fm/f/2once
oh yeah check out riddlesweather.com to lol update coming later(this ones for all the haters!)
Some people are locked, medically, into seeing the glass ‘half-empty’. Weather is intrinsically a game of unknowns. Deep down we all know this. We all know that forecasts remain bound firmly to factors which are more unpredictable than they are predictable. Chris does an amazing job of navigating through this reality. Life is as full of opportunities for cynicism as it is for joy. I imagine you’d be more welcome as a poster if your posts, here or at any of the hundreds of other sites you post at also recognized this fact.
Mr.Weatherman
What is your forecast?
I need a major change
I can’t stand no more PAIN
Everything’s been going wrong
please tell me it’s something in the ozone
or is the atmospheric pressure just too strong?
I can’t ride out one more storm
Because I’ve had too many highs and too many lows
too many storms that DON’T UNFOLD
I need some blue skies and sunshine
I need a good forecast tonight
’cause I’ve had too many highs and too many lows
too man storms that DON’T UNFOLD
I need some blue skies and sunshine
I need a good forecast tonight
Hope your weekend forecast is right
hope you got me on your weather eyes
@ ‘Jank Brock’: Some people are locked, medically, into seeing the glass ‘half-empty’. Weather is intrinsically a game of unknowns. Deep down we all know this. We all know that forecasts remain bound firmly to factors which are more unpredictable than they are predictable. Chris does an amazing job of navigating through this reality. Life is as full of opportunities for cynicism as it is for joy. I imagine you’d be more welcome as a poster if your posts, here or at any of the hundreds of other sites you post at also recognized this fact.
From the Jackson NWS @ 11:20 am on 2/6/11.
…The latest GFS and European model (ecmwf) runs develop a surface low over the northern Gulf on Wednesday and track it offshore of the Carolinas by
Thursday morning. The 00z European model (ecmwf) is now faster to take the deep moisture out of the area. Although…this is a change from the
previous run which was in much better agreement with the 00z GFS. At
this point…this just underscores the uncertainty regarding the
system…and confidence in a particular solution is low. Have not
used probability of precipitation any higher than chance at this point…with the highest probability of precipitation in our southeast counties. Based on the GFS and its ensemble…and the 12z run of the European model (ecmwf)…the probability of precipitation peak on Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Significant snowfall can not be ruled out…but as
stated…there is a lack of confidence yet.
NAM actually looks decent through 84 hr with the 12z GFS still lost in the woods after the 6Z run made a good step.
Wow!
It’s Feb 6th and winter is over. So we get shorter winters now. Cool!
DALLAS FAN AT HEART…PULLING FOR GREEN BAY…GO PACKERS….HAPPY SUPER BOWL SUNDAY….
TRENDS ALL YEAR HAVE BEEN NORTH WEST while NOWCASTING….THINK SNOW…THINK SNOW
Do you trust that model after that Saturday meltdown. The nam use to be in my opinion the most accurate. But this year it has been struggling.
I told you told you it wasn’t going to happen. Told myself this all weekend so I wasn’t let down when I got here. Mother Nature hates us for some reason.
No snow
Cats lose
GO PACK GO…if I say go pack go the STEELERS will win it 🙂
Thanks Chris for giving us a great site to hang out. Your the best.
12z GFS ensemble still show’s it way to south.Storm is just to weak IMO to get cranked up for a NW shift.One can only think of what could of been if this thing would of got cranked up coming out of TX/Louisiana.We were set up nicely for a good snow and the wheels have literaly fell off of this storm.Even the folks down south or parts of carolina want get much if any as it stands right now.Just my opinion..
Paducah NWS has issued a WWA for portions of their forecast area effective from Midnight CST tonight until 3 p.m. CST Monday.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
From the Jackson NWS discussion…
The 00z European model (ecmwf) is now faster to take the deep moisture out of the area. Although…this is a change from the previous run which was in much better agreement with the 00z GFS. At
this point…this just underscores the uncertainty regarding the system…and confidence in a particular solution is low. Have not used probability of precipitation any higher than chance at this point…with the highest
probability of precipitation in our southeast counties. Based on the GFS and its ensemble…and the 12z run of the European model (ecmwf)…the probability of precipitation peak on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Significant snowfall can not be ruled out…but as stated…there is a lack of confidence yet.
Models will come around as the day progresses and we will end up with a big snow…hopefully. Mark it down.
From the Jackson NWS discussion…
The 00z European model (ecmwf) is now faster to take the deep moisture out of the area. Although…this is a change from the previous run which was in much better agreement with the 00z GFS. At
this point…this just underscores the uncertainty regarding the system…and confidence in a particular solution is low. Have not used probability of precipitation any higher than chance at this point…with the highest
probability of precipitation in our southeast counties. Based on the GFS and its ensemble…and the 12z run of the European model (ecmwf)…the probability of precipitation peak on Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Significant snowfall can not be ruled out…but as stated…there is a lack of confidence yet.
Sorry if this posts multiple times went to moderation quite a bit on this one.
Don’t know why I keep getting sent to moderation but hopefully the link will work. Might want to check out the Jackson NWS discussion. They are not giving up on this yet, but they are not confident in predicting either way just yet either.
http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc.asp?DiscussionCode=JKL&StateCode=KY&SafeCityName=Hazel_Green
Latest from the NWS posted around noon…
THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWSHOULD BE WED EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS S-CNTRL KY WHERE CONFLUENT FLOWIN THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS AND SOME DEFORMATION WILL LEAD TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW…WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.N-CNTRL KY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A CHANCEOF LIGHT SNOW…WITH THE LEAST CHANCE OVER S-CNTRL IND…ALTHOUGHEVEN THIS AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE INITIAL EWD STREAKOF LIGHT SNOW IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW WED MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF THEDISTURBANCE IS ABLE TO BACK THE FLOW ALOFT MORE (I.E. A MORE SW FLOWALOFT)…THEN SNOWFALL WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FARTHER N. THE ECMWFHINTS AT THIS POTENTIAL…BUT STILL PAINTS S-CNTRL KY ON SWD AS THEMOST LIKELY AREA FOR SNOW. THE SNOW WILL MOVE AWAY RAPIDLY BY THUMORNING…EARLIER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.
Looks like they are saying all areas could get in on some snowfall for the Wed night/Thurs storm but the majority will be across South Central Kentucky as the models are showing now. Hey, 2-4 inches wouldn’t be bad at all considering all the little bitty snows we’ve had all winter 😉
2nd
Latest from the NWS…
THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWSHOULD BE WED EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS S-CNTRL KY WHERE CONFLUENT FLOWIN THE LOW-TO-MID LEVELS AND SOME DEFORMATION WILL LEAD TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW…WITH 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE.N-CNTRL KY SHOULD REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A CHANCEOF LIGHT SNOW…WITH THE LEAST CHANCE OVER S-CNTRL IND…ALTHOUGHEVEN THIS AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE INITIAL EWD STREAKOF LIGHT SNOW IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW WED MORNING/AFTERNOON. IF THEDISTURBANCE IS ABLE TO BACK THE FLOW ALOFT MORE (I.E. A MORE SW FLOWALOFT)…THEN SNOWFALL WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FARTHER N. THE ECMWFHINTS AT THIS POTENTIAL…BUT STILL PAINTS S-CNTRL KY ON SWD AS THEMOST LIKELY AREA FOR SNOW. THE SNOW WILL MOVE AWAY RAPIDLY BY THUMORNING…EARLIER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.
WWA has been issued by the Paducah NWS Office effective from Midnight CST tonight until 3 p.m. CST Monday afternoon.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
Cowboys aren’t playing so none of it matters….. Kinda hurts seeing it all play out at Cowboy Stadium and all… Oh well maybe next year…
I agree with a lot of what you said. I am for one, tired of tracking storm that just come right to the north or south of me and we get RAIN!!! ugh where’s the 50’s or 70’s and 80’s for that matter
WWA issued by the Paducah NWS Office effective from Midnight CST tonight until 3 p.m. CST Monday.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/
Ok i will give you the benefit of the doubt and say that apparently you haven’t seen the previous posts from this guy/gal slamming CB. You should really know the whole story before you decide to comment though. 🙂
Leave it to central KY to go from a suspected big winter storm to ya know… a possible 1-2 inches. It’s EVERY time. Blargh.
I just got back from the Milwauke area-ended up having to stay for the entire week due to the blizzard. It was an awesome sight to see and a bit scary. However, being snowbound in a hotel with roomservice is not so bad. ;> I have seen enough snow to last a long long time so bring on Spring!!
My favorite model has let me down, keeps pushing the ‘big one’ a bit further south Still time to adjust by Tuesday.
Also, the late night/Monday system has a high ‘Bust’ potential but could still spit out at least an inch near Louisville if the changeover to snow can take place in a timely manner.
Go Steelers.
My favorite model keeps pushing the mid/late week ‘big one’ further south. Still time, though.
High ‘Bust’ potential with this system coming in for Monday. But we could see some accumulations if the changeover occurs in a timely manner.
Go Steelers.
my point is it is the opinion and if it was as bad as every one is saying why doesnt chris just ban this person.
i mean, we can not stop people from forming an opinion. this person loves to read the blog and enjoys the post but this person does not agree 80% of the time with what chris says.
just because chris has a good following such as me and you does not mean when some one gets on here and disgrees with his predictions that this person should be banned or ridiculled.
i have went to some of the other post and so far of the ones that i have read, i see nothing wrong with them.
this person gives any one the right to make comments on the blog so chris has the option of doing the same, the only difference is that chris has more class and does not have to stoop that low.
i did not say this person had class or respected chris, i only said that this person was entitled to his or her opinion.
WINTER WEATHER ADV. OUT FOR WEST,NORTH CENTRAL KY….ANYONE SEEING A TREND???SAME OLE SAME OLE
Toney, this person is a troll.
I am not one who normally lashes out at someone for an opinion, but I will defend the person who owns the blog because he doesnt have to do this for us.
Obviously you didnt see chris’s post to the troll either…please stop arguing.
Sunday, February 06, 2011 10:39 AM southlex wrote:
Jank Brock is a pro-troll – just punch “jank brock” into google and watch the millions of comments pop up. It seems he comments on any topic and his language is as foul as some of the topic he comments on.
Sorry, my first comment was moderated.
Hey guys! Everyone giving up so soon? The way this winter had been, who knows? the trends have been wacky, (as has the weather itself) so, who can say for sure (even the BEST meteorologist in these here parts) what is going to happen, other than God? If it comes, it comes, and if not, well, then not.
I want it as bad as all the snow lovers here, but I just refuse to get excited or disappointed at this point. NWS has not totally thorwn in the towel, si why should we?
Chris, you are the BEST! Enjoy the Superbowl, everyone. GO(insert you favorite team name here) 😉
I’m with you CoffeeLady!
to start with i am not arguing, i was only trying to make a point about ones opinion and if this person does bash chris then why doesnt chris just ban the person from the blog or the comment section.
maybe i am ignorant about past post and what chris has posted about this person.
but next time do not tell me to quit arguing, may be you are the 1 that needs to keep your mouth shut.
i respect any ones opinion, but please do not tell me to stop arguing.
you did not have to respond to what i said so obviously you are the one trying to argue.
if chris wants to ban me for this little piece of venting well he is more than welcome to do so.
that is what is wrong with this world, some people can say what they want and just because people think they are popular it is ok but let some one less popular say 1 thing out of the way and they get banned.
i never said i liked this person or that they should be on here but let chris decide that.
now, i feel better. ever since i read your reply i have been fuming.
chris you are the best and always will be at what you do.
i have 1 question for chris. if this person is as bad as some people say, why do you allow this person to come on here and leave comments? just wondering……….