Good Saturday afternoon everyone. Thanks for all you guys do to make this a true weather community for the state of Kentucky.  Some wild weather has been blowing across the state today and that is setting the stage for a busy weather week ahead.

The short term weather will feature temps continuing to fall across the eastern half of the state with some wraparound light snows across parts of the area. The winds are cranking up with gusts approaching 25-30mph into the early evening.

All eyes are on the potential storm for the middle and end of the week… but there are indications we should be paying a bit more attention to the Monday system. A modified arctic front will be swinging into the area Sunday night and Monday. We are likely to see a wave of low pressure develop along this front across east Tennessee and work northeast. This should have a stripe of accumulating snows on the northwestern side of it. I am not sure exactly where this sets up yet… but areas of western and central Kentucky look to be in a favorable area.

GFS Ensembles Monday Evening



Canadian Model



A shot of arctic air moves in behind the departing low pressure as 850 temps drop to -15c for some. That would mean Tuesday highs in the 20s.

That brings us to the storm potential from late Wednesday through Thursday. The pattern continues to look very favorable for low pressure to develop across Texas and swing eastward toward Georgia then up the east coast by Friday. How strong and exactly where this low tracks is a long way from being a sure thing and until we figure that out… we won’t know the exact impact this storm will have on the weather where you live.

As I keep saying… we are in the ball game for this one and many models show a good hit for this region.

European Model


JMA


If you are wanting a big snow this winter and have been watching the seasonal trends… do you really want to see your area in the bullseye from 5 days away? Every storm this winter has trended stronger and farther northwest. Will this be the one that doesn’t? Who knows…. but tracking it is a big part of the fun.

Looking ahead even farther down the road… a big break in this pattern is coming next week. Take a look at the GFS Ensembles temp forecast anomalies for later this week and one week later…


Does that mean winter is over? No. Winter’s featuring a La Nina tend to produce winter events all the way into March.

There you have it… plenty of action to track over the next week before a spring fling next week. I will try to update things later today so check back. Have a great rest of your day and take care.