Good afternoon, everyone. We continue to track an arctic front toward the bluegrass state and that’s going to bring big time changes tonight into Christmas Eve. As low pressure develops along the front, we get an enhanced snow band across eastern Kentucky. This is the main area we’ve been highlighting and that area is now under a Winter Storm Watch.
Here’s a look at the current Watch…
One question I have is… Where the heck are the Winter Weather Advisories surrounding that all the way back into central Kentucky? You’re talking about rain to a period of freezing rain/sleet and the potential for a light snowfall on top of that… ON CHRISTMAS EVE. These things used to be no-brainers. Remember, our sole purpose is to take care of the people of this region and alert them to any potential issues. Period.
The Weather Prediction Center is a part of NOAA/NWS and here’s their current risk map for 4″+ of snow on Thursday…
The Slight Risk goes all the way back west of Lexington with the Moderate Risk for all of eastern Kentucky and the High Risk for far southeastern Kentucky.
There’s a major split right now in the forecast models with the GFS and NAM being more progressive, but also showing better chances for sleet and freezing rain. That cuts down the snow totals back into central Kentucky.
NAM snow map…
Check out the sleet…
The freezing rain…
The GFS has similar sleet and freezing rain maps. Here’s the snow map…
The Canadian Models continue to be in the snow camp and farther west with this…
Short Range Canadian
CANADIAN
The Canadian family has the support of the RAP…
Given everything I’ve shown you, I’m not comfortable making any changes to the earlier First Call map. I want to see the late afternoon runs to see what they come up with before I make changes. There’s nothing worse than making a change to only change it back to what the original call was.
I will have the latest on WKYT starting at 4pm then again on KWC later today.
I leave you with your radars to track the arctic front and rains in from the west…
Enjoy the day and take care.
Thanks Chris, still looks good for a thumping of snow here!
Having access to the same tools all I can say is good job sir.
can we name the bailey strut when he on tv. i think the giddy winter romp by mr kyweather!!!!!!! him and the clicker strut when there excirment in da winter!!!!! asctually watch his right leg shake at time as well.
The totals from the GFS and the NAM are decreasing with each run and I’m certain they’re more accurate than the Canadian it this time….because this is the way it always works out…heavy rain followed by backside flurries. Said this here 2 days ago and it’s looking like the GFS and NAM agrees
It does seemed like that every weather event that produces snow in Ky. is always complicated.
Congrats to E.KY.
I hate it that the rest of the state will have mostly plain rain and fz.rain
Ice is the worst.
Be safe if you are driving on ice in central Ky.
And the walls come tumbling down….no mention of any accumulation in the Lousville Metro area. A dusting at best.
That White Christmas (2010 being the last) will have to wait another year for most of us. The lack of snow the past 3 winters has really become one long running joke in Kentucky.
I’m still gonna hold out for ice somewhere around Bardstown. That’s about all we CAN get to materialize here when there’s a decent shot at SNOW! LOL!
I’m still holding out for 1 inch or better on the snow for my county of Taylor.
If it doesn’t snow we have plenty of time to receive such this Winter.
Hold off on the Ice Mother Nature.
I so remember the days when we had winter storms that actually started as snow, stayed snow till the end. Now it’s always rain to snow back to rain, sleet/ ice. Not giving up on this storm yet!
If you don’t like snow move to WKY we never get it here. No accumulating snow here since last Nov. RIP winter.
It’s 55 degrees with a howling south wind gusting to 40 MPH here in the Chicago Metro Area this afternoon.
Definitely no White Christmas here this year, but maybe some festive flakes when the cold air arrives tomorrow.
Since 2010, there’s only been one White Christmas for Chicago where there’s been at least one inch of snow on the ground the entire day.
Mike, I remember Chicago use to get a lot of snowy days and bitter cold temperatures and Lake Michigan froze over almost every Winter.
Something in the atmosphere has changed. Maybe it’s the thinning of the Arctic Sea Ice in Greenland or maybe it’s a build up of Carbon Dioxide or an erratic jet stream. I could go on and on and still wouldn’t be able to explain our long snow drought here in the Ohio Valley.
I sure wish all of you could have experience the month of December in South-Central Indiana 1969.
One snowstorm after another (3 days apart) with each storm depositing 6 to 8 inches.
On Christmas Eve snow fell the whole night and gave us a real Silent Night.
On Christmas Morning more than a foot of fresh fallen snow was on the ground.
It was very cold that lasted well into the New Year.
In fact we had a snowstorm on New Years Eve.
I hope no one on here will hate me for posting the above please…..
It will snow again here sometime, but it won’t be like what I experience in 1969-70.
I remember one Christmas Eve in the mid-late 60’s, and my Grandpa got his buddy, a prominent businessman and later State Rep., to dress up as Santa Claus and come by that night and see me. I was maybe 5?? Well, we had really bad storms that night, and when Santa showed up, he was drunk as a skunk! LOL! Luckily he had someone bring him. I still have the pictures and the memories. Anyway, those thunderstorms turned into a huuugge snow by Christmas Day! I don’t know which I thought was weirder….the fact that we went from storms to a snowstorm, or that my mother made me buy “Santa” a Christmas gift-a tie! 😀 😀
This seems trending east, so looking more like the low end of the map from earlier, unless far east KY. it would be real funky if it suddenly appeared to slow and impact the west more. Best to count on a little snow and perhaps snow globe action.
We’ve seen these enough to know that the models seem to almost always overstate a lot of KY. A key reason is we’re the transitional fence if heading north or east. More variability for totals in the transitional area.
Thank you, Chris. I’m delighted at the prospect of an actual White Christmas here in the east. I wish the entire state would get at least festive flakes for all the snow lovers out there.
If only the Canadian were correct this time!
My parents have told me about the winter of 77-78, when it snowed so often and so much that the car wasn’t moved for three months. Dad had a Jeep that got him to work at the old WKYH TV station (he was the friendly weather dude back in those days!). I have vague memories of it, but was only 4 at the time.
Merry Christmas to all, and may we all see a few flakes flying at the very least, from the Mississippi to the Black Mountain.
Each run of the GFS grinds South-Central Kentucky’s chances for a White Christmas into the dust. The general lack of snow over past couple of decades, the increased incidence of severe weather in January and February, and copious rainfall throughout the year, even during the height of Summer, are all indicative of a significant climate shift. There are many component factors, such as abnormally warm sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska, which affects the polar jet stream trajectory, and above normal SST’s in the Gulf of Mexico. There has also been significant slowing of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current, which is especially worrisome for our neighbors in Britain and Scandinavia. It looks as though the abnormal has become our new normal.
Agreed 100% !!! Excellent post Joe.