Good Thursday and Merry Christmas Eve. A developing winter storm continues to take shape and confidence is increasing for several inches of snow to fall across the eastern half of the state. Current trends are for a farther west and stronger storm system, bringing accumulating snows back into central Kentucky. This is the first of a few snow makers through Christmas Day.

Here are a few of my thoughts:

  • This is likely a significant snowstorm across eastern Kentucky into areas of Ohio and West Virginia.
  • The arctic front slams eastward this morning with a narrow ribbon of snow and mixed precipitation right behind it in central Kentucky. This won’t look very impressive until we get into late morning or afternoon.
  • This is when the front is into eastern Kentucky and that’s when the low pressure develops along it. This rolls from east Tennessee and up the eastern Mountains of West Virginia.
  • Moderate to heavy snow will rapidly increase this afternoon and evening across eastern Kentucky. This may actually back west with the edges getting into central Kentucky for a time.
  • Snowfall rates across far eastern Kentucky may peak at 1″ per hour during the evening.
  • Winds will be gusty and some blowing snow will also be possible.
  • As the snow band slowly pulls out of eastern Kentucky overnight, snow showers and snow squalls will be coming in behind it across central Kentucky. These squalls can put down hit and run accumulations and significantly reduce visibilities.
  • Another round of light snow will be around into Christmas Day.
  • Wind chills will be near zero at times tonight through Christmas Day.

My latest Call For Snowfall pushes everything farther west and increases totals in the east…

I will get a Final Call For Snowfall out before noon today. The westward trend may continue with this.

In terms of the forecast models, the Canadian Models haven’t budged in being the farthest west and snowiest.

Short Range Canadian…

Canadian…

The EURO had gone way east earlier, but the last run adjusted back west by a good margin…

The GFS is also coming back to the west after a trip eastward earlier in the day…

The totals are down a bit because the model sees more of a mix…

SLEET

FREEZING RAIN

The NAM has struggled, but it’s coming back west as well…

The Hi Res NAM is coming back as well…

Again, the American Models have struggled most with this in recent runs.

The average of the ENSEMBLES are also sending out a strong signal and show a big increase in just one run…

GFS ENSEMBLES (10-1 ratio)

EURO ENSEMBLES (10-1 Ratio)…

I mentioned the wind chills. Check out this run of the HRRR…

I will have updates all day long and will adjust the snow map as needed.

Here are your radars to follow the progression of the day…

Merry Christmas Eve and take care.