Good Sunday, everybody. A weak cold front is dropping into the region tonight and it’s bringing another big increase in winds. That’s the beginning of a very active New Year’s week that will feature a big time storm system just as we say goodbye to 2020 and hello to 2021.

Temps ahead of our weak front will surge today, so some ugly snowmen and women will start to show up.

The front drops in tonight with just the chance for a late shower that may have some flakes mixing in. Winds just ahead of this front will crank to 40mph-50mph at times, especially across the northern half of the state. The Hi Res NAM has gusts greater than 50mph…

Given the thawing ground, it wouldn’t take much wind to knock a few trees down.

Colder air comes back in behind this for Monday as our focus quickly turns toward the next storm. This looks to arrive late Wednesday into New Year’s Eve and it looks to be another high impact system around here.

A few thoughts:

  • Low pressure works toward the Great Lakes and drags a cold front in here. That front slows down as low pressure develops along it. Exactly where this happens isn’t as clear cut to me as the Christmas Eve storm. I said that would happen along the Appalachian Mountains a week away.
  • This may also be a slower and stronger low pressure wherever it decides to track.
  • This could bring several different types of weather hazards in here. Heavy rain, high winds, a mix and freezing rain and snow.
  • How much you get of each will be determined by the track of the low.
  • Regardless, this looks like a big ticket item and seems appropriate to have this kind of storm to end this crazy year.

The GFS has a very ugly look with heavy rain and freezing rain…

The Canadian is a little farther west than the GFS…

The EURO is the most wrapped up and farther west, but that’s likely the bias of the model coming into play once again…

Remember, there were runs of the EURO that took the Christmas Eve low from St. Louis to Cleveland. It was actually up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains.

I will have updates later today, so check back. Have a good one and take care.