Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a good looking day in the bluegrass state, but the focus is on some ugly as we get set to end 2020 and kick off the new year. A three pronged storm system is on the way and looks to bring a lot of rain, wind, a few strong thunderstorms and some winter weather.

The first surge of heavy rain and gusty winds arrive Wednesday night as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This front has a blast of cold behind it that settles into the region for the last day of the year. I’ve been focusing on the potential for some winter weather across parts of the north and west, especially Thursday morning…

The majority of the forecast models are now on board with that idea. The freezing rain threat continues to be of particular concern as it shows up stronger than the other winter weather variables.

The EURO continues to have more of a snow signal behind the front…

It also has some freezing rain…

The GFS went from showing ZERO winter weather to now showing some sleet, snow and freezing rain behind this front…

SNOW

SLEET

FREEZING RAIN

The NAM is also starting to see the freezing rain potential…

The Canadian isn’t as crazy with the freezing rain as earlier runs and now looks more realistic…

So, if you live in the area I’ve outlined for some winter weather early Thursday, pay close attention to how this plays out. Just a little bit of freezing rain can cause big issues.

From here, a powerful low pressure then lifts northward through the Mississippi Valley New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. This will bring the potential for high winds and even a few strong thunderstorms. It’s another big rain maker that may also cause local high water issues. Here’s the area I’ve already outlined…

The models continue to show hefty rainfall amounts through Friday night…

GFS

CANADIAN

NAM

EURO

Another system will follow this up by Saturday night and Sunday with a borderline winter event.

The evolution of the pattern continues toward massive blocking developing over Greenland and the Arctic, allowing for a deepening trough into our region during the second week of January…

I’ll hook you up with another update this evening. Have a good one and take care.