Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. Its another sunny, but cold day in the bluegrass state as we get set to usher in a big change. This change will bring a lot of rain to the region from later Sunday through Monday and early Tuesday. This kicks off a very busy pattern featuring another system late Wednesday and Thursday that can put snow down around here.
Here’s the setup I’m looking at in the coming days…
That setup brings light precipitation in here on Sunday and some of that could be in the form of a wintry mix across some areas. A touch of freezing rain may show up on the leading edge of the precipitation.
NAM
Hi Res NAM
The Canadian has a colder look and that leads to some snow and freezing rain…
As the low works along the Kentucky/Tennessee border counties on Monday, rounds of heavy rain and some thunderstorms work across the state. This will bring the potential for some hefty rainfall numbers. This is what I’m expecting in terms of totals…
The various forecast models are in decent agreement with where the heaviest numbers show up…
GFS
CANADIAN
EURO
In addition to heavy rain, winds are going to be a big player. Gusts on Monday may reach 40mph or so in some areas.
As this wraps up Tuesday, a touch of light rain and a mix show up.
The next system zips in here quickly by late Wednesday and Thursday and has a better chance to bring winter weather in here as the low takes a farther south track. Some models are quite bullish on some decent snows during this time…
GFS
CANADIAN
Both of those models bring a healthy snowstorm to the region.
The EURO isn’t as impressed, but still has some snow…
Again, this is a very stormy setup that’s likely to feature above normal rainfall and above normal snowfall through the rest of winter and into early spring.
I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
The snowfall might be for real.
Due to the fact that the low is coming out of the Northwest.
Models usually have a better handle on how the low will track with this type of setup.
I am cautiously optimistic.
Considering we got three huge snows in less than one year just five years ago, anything is possible.
This morning is about as cold as it was on Christmas morning here in the Chicago area, with temps in the upper single digits. Friday’s high of 30 and low of 12 averaged 2 1/2 degrees below normal for the date, which is the first time this year temperatures averaged below normal for a day.
At least parts of the Chicago area look to be in the sweet spot for a significant snowstorm Monday into early Tuesday. We’ll see how the forecast evolves this weekend.
I pay very close attention to where the Arctic Air is about to enter the US. Just West and around Rockford, Illinois there has been Temperatures around Zero or Below. This may be enhanced by Radiational Cooling by the presents of a good Snow pack that’s been there since the last Snow Event. It is forecast to receive another bout of snow next week. Mike, your area may have the best chance to date for accumulating Snow ?
I don’t Know what to Expect here in Central Kentucky.
The Forecasts this Morning are all Different.
No Clear Meaning.
I am heading to the highlands of West Virginia on a camping trip next weekend. (I love he outdoors, especially in the winter!) We are hoping for cold (enough) and snow and NO RAIN! We’ll be at 4,000 feet. What do you think? What are the chances of avoided rain and mud and hopefully having at least snow on the ground and perhaps a few flakes in the air.
At 4000 feet in Elevation I would think that the precipitation this time of the year would be SNOW.
Have a Great Vacation ! West Virginia is a Beautiful State year round.
I’m afraid the low will transfer to the coast too quickly and leave us with next to nothing from the Wednesday/Thursday system.
Only 56 days till the 1st day of Spring.
I think we are in Early Spring Now. When you Don’t have Winter Weather in January you will have it around Easter Time. Pans out every time where I live.
Not to jinx us, but i think this is the longest KY has gone without a significant ice event. We got one or more in every decade since the 60’s (not sure before that), but did not get one in the 2010’s and now are over twelve years since the last big ice event. For people that look at shorter trends, that is a fate gambler.
With less than week away we shall see how this plays out.
It will probably Play out like all the other Weather Systems this Winter ?
It will probably Play out like all the other Weather Systems this Winter ?
Yep